Monday, May 31, 2010
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
2008: 12-16 named storms.... Total storms 16
2007: 13-17 named storms.... Total storms 15
2006: 14-16 named storms.... Total storms 9
2005: 12-15 named storms.... Total storms 28
2008: 6-9 Canes........ Total 8
2007: 7-10 Canes...... Total 6
2006: 8-10 Canes...... Total 5
2005: 7-9 Canes........ Total 15
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Monday, May 24, 2010
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
I'm sitting in Amarillo, TX right now and I'm liking my position! 15z RUC show convection going up both to our north and south around 22z... It's also forecasting (at 0z) CAPE values 3,000 J/kg + , 0-1 km shear around 150 , 50 knots of deep layer shear, good shear vectors, dewpoints at a minimum of 65 degrees, and a few more factors I like... Of course there are negative factors as well, but I do think we will get a few tornadoes today with the positives listed above... The better forcing is north, but there should be enough to get things up today... The few storms that do go up should be very discrete, so I'm excited about that... Either way I'm looking forward to a great chase today!
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Sorry for the delay, but I got back late last night and I was beyond exhausted... I'll have a much more detailed chase recap another day, but we saw 3 tornadoes yesterday... Honestly, we probably saw 4, but I'm not going to count a tornado unless I'm 100% sure... I mean I guess I could slow down the video or photoshop it, but I just can't count that personally... The first tornado we saw was pretty far away (~3/4 miles), along 177 south, with Wynnewood, OK to our east... It was a small cone shaped tornado that was on the ground for a couple minutes... The second tornado was about mile more down the road... It was a multiple vortex tornado (On the ground for a couple minutes) that was still pretty far away (~2/3 miles), still along 177 south... It was pretty cool as you could see dust swirling around it at times... Unfortunately, these two tornadoes occurred just before dark so it wasn't the ideal viewing... We could still see it well, even though I do wish it would have been about 30 minutes earlier... Besides the tornadoes, it was such a BEAUTIFUL supercell... Beehive look/stacked plates.... AWESOME!!! The last tornado we saw was about 8/9 miles north of Sulphur, OK... You could see it as the lightning stuck behind the supercell... It was pretty big/close (less than a mile) and we decided it was time to leave as we were about to get rolled... Good thing too, because this tornado ripped a roof of a barn...
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
I'm looking at it more as maximizing my chasing days by going... I'm still eyeing Saturday/Sunday as potential big days if the CAP can break... With the amount of forcing coming I do think it will break, but it's still a big concern no doubt! I figure I should go hardcore and get on Wednesday so I'm sitting pretty for Saturday/Sunday... Plus it will be good to hang out with Justyn/Todd again... I'll post all the updates I can from the road... I'm going to watch deadliest catch tonight and then leave right after... haha...
Monday, May 17, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
We (Tim Wallace, Michael Carter, Justyn Jackson, and myself) headed to Elk City, OK yesterday in hopes of some nice dryline supercells... What we got was a STRONG CAP that didn't want to break... I'll be honest, I had my doubts when we got near 7pm without anything going up... Storms would try to go up and then immediately get smashed down by the dreaded CAP... Finally a storm started to bust through near Ellis/Dewey County, OK... We finally intercepted the storm around 8:30pm in Sharon, OK... Sharon is about 10 miles south of Woodward, OK, which is where in 1947 a horrible F-5 tornado nearly wiped out the town! It was a long track monster tornado that ranks 6th all time on the deadliest US tornadoes list....
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
The SPC went High Risk 30% tornado for tomorrow... I don't disagree, but I personally would have played it a little more safe with the negative factors outlined below... We are heading for OKC tomorrow morning, so we'll see what happens... I still think it will be a big day but I'm not on the high risk bandwagon yet... By the time I wake up tomorrow I'll know if it will be a huge, big, or an average day... I want to get a look at the progression of the trough, whether the precip is getting out, and most importantly whether the sun is shining... If the sun is out tomorrow for a lot of the day, then LOOK OUT!!!
Sunday, May 9, 2010
I personally do think the convection will get out! Combine that with plenty of boundaries, nice dynamics, incredible thermodynamics, and I really think Monday will be a big day! I never really like to get into thermodynamic parameters this far out, but it does look very explosive! I'll get into way more detail tomorrow... Remember though, Monday is not a sure thing, and while I do think the morning convection gets out, it's still something to watch very closely! I think we will have a much better handle on everything by tomorrow!
I'll have a full recap on today's events tomorrow as well... Cowboys Stadium was AMAZING!!! By far the best stadium I have ever been inside or seen from outside... I'll have a lot of pictures to include as well... Best $17.50 I have spent in a long time! Right now it's sleep time though!
*Update (12:55am): The SPC just went moderate 45% hatched on Monday for south-central/south-eastern Kansas and parts of north-central Oklahoma... I have a strong feeling high risk 30% tornado is coming on the first Day-1 convective outlook tomorrow night! They feel confident that the morning convection gets out, and Monday is a big/huge day! I do agree 100%, but again the morning convection is still something to watch closely IMO... I just don't want hype things too much since we are still almost 48 hours out... I promise I'll have a very detailed post tomorrow on Monday's chasing and beyond... Plus I'll have a recap on our trip to Cowboys Stadium...
Saturday, May 8, 2010
This is probably the most strongly worded Day-3 I have ever read in my life! All I can say is WOW!!!
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING. TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT RISK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND. THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.