Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Summary of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Well, this season was huge on the numbers, but not on the impact! The US mainland lucked out big time, as I don't know if we'll ever see another season this active by the numbers (19 named storms), without even one land-falling US hurricane! Here is a summary of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, written by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray from CSU... Hey, there is only 182 days until the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season! lol...

Monday, November 29, 2010

Quick Severe Weather Thought for Tomorrow!

Key for tomorrow is the dew points (low-level moisture)... If we start getting mid 60's, then I'll start taking note! RF quadrant should help bust up the clouds during the afternoon... Will have a solid LLJ & SE surface winds! Surface low is too far north though! The questions is, you ready to chase in the Deep South at night? Trust me from experience, make I-20 your cut off point if you do go...

Oh, the problem is, I-20 south has the best shot at mid 60's dew points! Hate to say it, but the best spot (Chasing wise) will probably be in the extreme southern MS Delta!

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Winter Outlook... (Not Really)

I really need to put out my 2010/2011 winter forecast, but honesty, things are SO BUSY right now for me it's going to be tough! I'll try to get one out before I head to the east coast, but here is a comment I left for my good friend Devin Toporek about the upcoming winter:

I know, I need to put it out! I've just been so busy! Building two classes takes a lot of time and effort! I'll try to get one out before I leave for the east coast, but I'm pretty much in line with Bastardi... Winter will start out cold and end warm! (I agree 100% with Bastardi dad's theory of hyper hurricane seasons and quick cold starts to the winter! More upward motion in the tropics, which will help troughs dig in more! I'll try to explain in more detail later, but I have blogged about it before...) With La Nina and a -NAO, you will see some nice Nor' Easters again! Don't know if there will be enough cold for the same amounts of snow, but I think you will still get it once or twice in NY... In DC, I'm thinking more like one big early snow... That's hard to forecast though! With La Nina you'll get some nice troughs digging into the US, but unless the NAO is negative, those troughs won't lock in! Expect more quick shots of cold air, followed by quick warm ups... Especially, in the Deep South! I will say watch out for some winter severe weather outbreaks down here in the South! The setup is a little similar to February 2008 to me...

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Another Winter Forecast...

Here is AccuWeather's 2010/2011 winter forecast! Also, I included a link to a quick Joe Bastardi video on the upcoming winter!

Friday, November 26, 2010

Meteorological Winter...

Here is a GREAT blog post from Dr. Jeff Masters (wunderground.com) on the upcoming winter... Remember, meteorological winter starts December 1st! Again, this is a great post, so I highly recommend everyone checking it out!

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Thanksgiving!

Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! I've never been a big fan of the food, but I do enjoy the holiday! Lots of good company and of course football... I would like to thank Doug and Heather Gillham for having me over to their place today! I always enjoy hanging out with them and I love playing with their two daughters... Almost makes me want to get married one day and have kids! But trust me, that day is a LONG TIME away! lol... I know this wasn't a weather post, but I will say things are going to cool off big time here in Starkville! A strong cold front is currently moving through, with highs tomorrow only expected to make it into the mid 40's... A far cry from the high of 75 we saw today! Tomorrow night's low is supposed to be near 27, so it will finally start feeling like late November!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010


Here is a link to a post my good friend Devin Toporak (The Northeast Quadrant) wrote on the end of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends November 30th... I agree with what Devin wrote, but I will say that in my opinion the season was a huge bust when it comes to impact... NOAA did well with their pre-season numbers forecast, but the impact forecasts (including mine) were HORRIBLE! I'll always say it's all about the impact, as the overall numbers mean almost nothing to me, but to say that the 2010 season was a complete bust would be inaccurate as well! The US just honestly got lucky! I doubt there will ever be a season again with 19 named storms and zero hurricane landfalls for the US... We (the US) really did get lucky!

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Winter Break...

I think I have decided that I'm going to go after nor' easters/lake effect snow this winter break... I'll be in/near Washington D.C., so I should be in a good location to get both... Of course if there are any coastal storms (Nor' Easters) I won't be too far away from the action, even if I have to drive to Cape Cod, MA (Always wanted to do that anyways)... Also, if there are any big lake effect events, I'll drive up to upstate New York for that as well... I have never been in a big lake effect event, so that is something I would love to experience... I have been in a couple passing lake effect bands that made it to Washington D.C. in mid 90's (once on Christmas day 94'), but I have never experienced the real deal... I've been in my fair share of historic nor' easters in Washington D.C. (93, 96, 02, 10), but even those can't compare to a big lake effect event.... 50 + inch events with 5 + inch snowfall rates at times, and near perfect 30 to 1 snowfall ratios...

Hurricanes will always be my #1, but honestly historic nor' easters/lake effect would probably be my #2 ahead of tornadoes... It's close, but the Superstorm of 1993 really took my love for weather to the next level, so it does make sense... I did want to go to Miami to see my brother and many friends, but I'll most likely get down there during spring break... Like I said, I have never been in a "real" lake effect event, so I really want to experience this while I can... Oswego County, NY sounds great in late December! lol...

Monday, November 22, 2010


I found this today... Here is a blog on all the "behind the scenes" stuff involved in shooting some of the most amazing time lapse photography I have ever seen in my life... I've posted many great time lapses recently by Tom Lowe and timescapes, but here is the link to their blog! I think you will find it very interesting... A lot of work goes into these shots! Enjoy!

Sunday, November 21, 2010

National Geographic's Photography Contest 2010

Here is another great post from The Big Picture blog! 47 amazing photos submitted for National Geographic's annual photography contest! You can still submit photos to the contest until November 30th... There are links on The Big Picture if you are interested... Enjoy!

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Had to post a couple more!

I had to post a few more amazing time lapses from Tom Lowe! I have Tom's main website linked on last nights blog post... I just can't seem to stop watching these incredible works of art! I know personally this has inspired me to work on time lapse photography in my future storm chases or just random events I decided to shoot! Enjoy!

Friday, November 19, 2010

More Amazing Time Lapse!

Here are two more AMAZING time lapse videos from Tom Lowe... I just found out about Tom Lowe's amazing time lapse photography/videography yesterday, and I have really enjoyed checking out his site... The first link is to his direct site!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Amazing Time Lapse Photography!

Here is a link to some AMAZING time lapse photography by Tom Lowe (2010 Astronomy Photographer of the Year!)... I would HIGHLY recommend checking this link out! It is titled "RAPTURE"...

Wednesday, November 17, 2010


Oh, and NO I don't believe in human induced global warming for the record! Not even close! I'm all about natural cycles! (ie: PDO, AMO, etc...)

Tuesday, November 16, 2010


Been finishing up my hurricane forecasting tips powerpoints today, and I came across some interesting stats on the ACE index... Thought I would share some of these stats with everyone... Keep in mind that the ACE index does not include the size of the storm (which I feel would be better), as it only includes maximum wind speed and duration over 6 hour increments for named storms (does not include sub-tropical storms either)... If you want an index that includes size with maximum wind speed and duration, research integrated kinetic energy...

Top-5 Total ACE Atlantic Seasons:

1) 2005: 248 units (28-TS, 15-H, 7-MH)
2) 1950: 243 units (13-TS, 11-H, 8-MH)
3) 1995: 228 units (19-TS, 11-H, 5-MH)
4) 2004: 225 units (15-TS, 9-H, 6-MH)
5) 1961: 205 units (11-TS, 8-H, 7-MH)

*2010: 170 units as of November 16th... (19-TS, 12-H, 5-MH)

*Pacific #1: 1992: 290 units (28-TS, 16-H, 10-MH)

Famous Hurricanes:

Hurricane Opal (1995): 11.1 units
Hurricane Charley (2004): 10.6 units
Hurricane Ivan (2004): 70.4 units
Hurricane Katrina (2005): 20 units
Hurricane Wilma (2005): 39 units
Hurricane Ike (2008): 39 units
Hurriacane Igor (2010): 42.4 units

Monday, November 15, 2010

Comet Modules!

I'm currently rewriting weather prediction I & II online (Forecasting I & II), and there is a great website out there that every meteorologist should check out! Whether you are just starting to learn meteorology, or have been a meteorologist for years, comet modules are a great way to learn and keep up to date with the latest in meteorology/forecasting! I should have used this site a lot more than I have over the years, but I'm going to make sure I do at least one comet module a week to keep my skills sharp! The first link takes you to the website! It is free, but you do have to sign up and make an account... The second link takes you to a list of the 406 comet modules (last 6 don't seem to work) available to everyone! Enjoy!

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Rain on the Way!

Short post tonight, as rain is the biggest story for us in the Deep South! Above is the 5-day HPC QPF forecast... Some areas in Alabama could see near 4" of rain, which is much needed! Keep in mind that the rain will fall Monday and Tuesday, as Wednesday through Friday will be cool, but nice for us in the Deep South! Other than that, the NHC still has a low risk area for development (20%) in the Caribbean (Down from Medium), but I honestly don't see anything developing at this time! The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is pretty much done in my eyes! Lots of number, but little impact!

Saturday, November 13, 2010

More From The Big Picture!

Thought I would continue with a couple more archived Big Picture blog posts since things are still fairly slow in the weather world right now...

Friday, November 12, 2010

Earthquake in Haiti/Earthquake in Chile

Here are two more amazing archived Big Picture blog posts on the Earthquake in Haiti/Earthquake in Chile...

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Fire and Ice/Earth, observed...

Here are two cool archived posts from The Big Picture on Fire and Ice/Earth, observed... Enjoy!

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

8 Years Ago Tonight!

8 years ago today was the largest November outbreak in recorded US history. I remember the day very well as the High Risk covered a HUGE area. A lot of people may not realize this, but Alabama has more tornadoes in November than any other month of the year. There is a Dixie Alley and the threat is very high for us in the Deep South during the late Fall. If you would like to read more about Dixie Alley I HIGHLY recommend everyone to read a very interesting paper by Alan Gerard (NWS Jackson, MS). Here is the Powerpoint presentation...

Also, here is something else I came across today. A detailed account of the day by Justyn Jackson. I hope he doesn't mind me posting this, but it's very well written and basically hits on all the main points of the day. It was a big chase for LDCT, as we were basically sandwiched between 3 tornadoes that night including a F-3 that hit the University for Women in Columbus, MS. Honestly we got lucky! I have always said that chasing in the Great Plains is very easy compared to chasing in the Deep South. Usually it's HP supercells at night in the pine woods. It's a totally different ball game and if you're not experienced on how to chase in Deep South you can easily die. I have grown up a lot as a storm chaser since that crazy night and I know today I wouldn't have done half the stuff we did that night. You live and learn!

If November 9th was any indication of how November 10th would turn out, this day would be remembered for a long time. A supercell formed in eastern Arkansas late on Saturday night (11/9) and moved east-northeast into western Tennessee. It would produce multiple tornadoes including damage in Homholdt, TN to a nursing home. The storm system slammed the western United States a few days prior producing heavy rains and battering waves along the Pacific coast. The SPC outlooked much of the southeast in a slight risk of severe weather on the Day 2 Outlook. However, John and I anxiously awaited the new Day 1 Outlook which would tell us what to expect for our chase. Needless to say, we were in utter amazement as we stared at the screen. A HIGH risk had been posted for northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, middle Tennessee, and south-central Kentucky! High risks are very rare; only a couple of issued every year. This was the first high risk that I had seen in the southeast in about two years. I immediately began calling the team and getting everyone together for a chase. Chris and Greg were definitely committed; John was committed. The only problem was Todd. He was in Biloxi - almost five hours away. There was no way I could not let him know so I called him to explain the situation, and he told me he was getting waking up his mom and coming back to Starkville! I gave Josh and call and we analyzed everything and came to the conclusion that northwest Alabama would not be a bad spot. As I was going to bed around 2:00 a.m., Todd instant messaged me and said he was leaving and would call me about 7:00 a.m. when he got back to campus.

Just after 7:00, my alarm goes off and Todd gives me a ring. I check out the latest SPC outlook and they have shifted the high risk farther to the northwest; extreme northeast Mississippi was still under the gun. I checked out some more data and it was readily apparent that a high risk was warranted. Strong southerly winds in excess of 20 mph were streaming across much of Mississippi in the early morning hours. Dew points were well into the 60s and temperatures were climbing out of the 60s and into the 70s. I decided to step out on the balcony and I immediately noticed two things: sun and strong winds. I thought back to December 16, 2000 (F4 tornado in Tuscaloosa), and I thought to myself that it indeed felt eerily similar to that unfortunate day. While I ate breakfast, I also watched a piece of vinyl siding get torn from the apartment across the street from us due to the strong winds! After analyzing morning upper-air data, a low-level jet would be present (over 50 knots) when storms began erupting and we would be in the favored right-rear quadrant of a jet max that was zipping through Oklahoma. The only doubt was how much instability would be present for the storms? An axis of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE values was centered across much of central Mississippi and they were slowly moving north and east. After about 9:30 I decided to give Greg a call and explain what was going on. John and I looked at more mesoanalysis data and thought it still looked like an excellent chase day. I then gave Tim Wallace a call around 10:30 and we talked about the situation. He was torn whether to go chasing or run radar. However, he liked the idea of hanging around Starkville to see the storms develop. The 1630Z SPC outlook was a little late in getting out, but it shifted the high risk farther back to the southwest. Now, we were well in the risk area and Tim's forecast started sounding really good. I decided to call Josh and let him know that his viewing area in Meridian was in the high risk. We discussed the situation and still agreed that northwest Alabama looked like the favored area. Greg came over just after 11:00 and we decided to get some lunch at Taco Bell and head up to the lab. At lunch Todd, John, Greg, and I decided that Tupelo would be our destination point. We called Chris and told him we would meet him at his apartment in Columbus around noon. After lunch we went up to the lab and saw a few people up there checking everything out. After more discussing, Tim convinced us to stay around here and possibly head west in an hour or so. We then called Chris back and told him to meet us in the lab. For the next couple of hours, satellite images showed the cap was holding strong but instability was increasing over much of the state. CAPE values exceeded 1500 J/kg in east-central Mississippi and were approaching 2000 J/kg in the central part of the state. We put all of our minds together and came up with this: the dynamics would be much greater across northern Mississippi and the cap would break there first. With that said, the lab sent us to Batesville? so we packed everything up and headed west on Highway 82 just after 2:30 p.m.

We received a phone call from the other group saying that they were going to Pontotoc and that we should get north. We barely made the exit, but we thought this was a logical decision. We finally met each other in Pontotoc just after 4:30 at a McDonald's. The other group got a call from the lab saying the cap showed signs of breaking northwest Mississippi, but they were concerned with new storms developing in central Mississippi. We sat around for about 30 minutes discussing fantasy football, eating, and waiting for the cap to break in our area. Just after 5:00 p.m., we noticed towers going up to the south of us and lightning was evident in a couple of storms. The lab then called and told us to head south because storms were growing stronger. We then got on Highway 78 east and then took Alternate Highway 45 south back to Starkville. Driving back, lightning was becoming increasingly more intense in almost every quadrant. We heard of severe thunderstorm warnings for Oktibehha (Starkville) and Lowndes (Columbus) Counties. We decided to give Josh a call since the lab was not calling frequently enough. He told us storms were growing stronger just south of us and also northwest of us! He also said that it was going to be a long night for him with frequent cut-ins. Not long after this, we heard of a tornado warning for Lowndes County. Business was sure enough picking up in a hurry! Soon after that, tornado warnings were issued for Oktibehha and Winston Counties. We finally made it back to Highway 82 and headed west towards Starkville. While Starkville was still under a warning, we decided to park on the side of the road and get a good vantage point for spotting. It was impossible with torrential rain in the dark of night. I called Josh and asked for his opinion on where we should go; he recommended going down Alternate Highway 45 towards Macon. We then turned around and headed east on 82 towards the airport. When we got to the airport, we saw more rain, lightning, and even some small hail. However, the group called and told us we were under a tornado warning (Lowndes County again). We then headed south on Highway 45 to see if we could get a clear opening to see anything. Still we encountered very heavy rain, but there were occassional spurts of light rain. I called Josh back and he told us the storm was off to the west of us but showed indications of a hook. He told me a storm moving through Columbus showed very good signs of rotation. We later heard that Columbus was indeed hit by a tornado. Chris was concerned because his fiancee was close to the damage area, but he got in touch with her and she was fine. We kept driving up and down Highway 45 for some reason? We finally were told to keep going south towards Macon. Just before we got to Macon, we pulled off the road and watched a storm with a wall cloud. I did notice that it felt like we were feeling rear flank downdraft winds because they were warm and moist. We relayed our report to the lab and they told us to stay where we were. About this time, Robert noticed a power flash just to our north but we didn't really notice anything about this. The lights at a nightclub also flashed. The wall cloud we were watching soon dissipated and the outflow air became quite chilly. We later found out that the power flash may have been a tornado that stayed on the ground for 46 miles (rated only as an F1)! We somehow missed it by less than 2 miles. Josh told us more storms continued to build back to the southwest but nothing that looked overly impressive. We kept riding around aimlessly for some reason and listened to James Spann (ABC 33/40 Birmingham) on the radio do live coverage of the Carbon Hill, AL tornado. It sounded like the tornado caused massive damage in that area (that tornado was later rated at F3). With the storms dissipating, we decided to go to Columbus with Chris and see how bad the damage was. As we were going back to Columbus, we ran across a turned over truck and we decided to turn around and see if anyway was in it. Right as we got to the truck, police cars came up and and we saw the man who was in the truck. He was alright but shaken up. It appeared as though a tornado went across this area because a wide swath of debris was on the road along with many snapped trees. We later learned this was the tornado that struck Crawford and claimed the only fatality in Mississippi. When we got close to his apartment, we saw a neighborhood that looked like a tornado had gone through. Sure enough, trees were uprooted everywhere and on top of a few houses. I guessed if that was the only damage, the tornado would probably be rated as an F1; Mississippi University for Women a couple of miles away suffered the worst damage with numerous buildings damaged on campus. Chris and Greg had a Thermo exam the next day, but he had no power. However, Mike said there were no "ifs" "ands" or "buts" about it, they would have the test at 8:00 a.m.

I will remember this outbreak for as long as I live. A high risk stretched from Ohio down to southern Mississippi! Over 80 tornadoes were reported and damage was the most severe in eastern Tennessee and north-central Alabama. The models did a decent job forecasting this event. The GFS was consistent run to run about 8-9 days out. However, it did back off the risk for a couple of runs about five days before the event and numerous meteorologists discounted the storm. Many thanks go to Josh Johnson for his help. This may have been one of my most frustrating chases, but we could have possibly been killed if not for his help.

Justyn Jackson

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

The Big Picture...

I was looking through some archived Big Picture blog posts over the years, and I decided I would post four amazing hurricane related posts! I really like this blog a lot (Probably my favorite of all the blogs I read), as the pictures are always incredible... Pictures really do speak a thousand words! Enjoy!

Monday, November 8, 2010

Mount Merapi's Eruptions...

I know this isn't exactly weather, but I thought I would leave a link anyways! Once again, amazing pictures from The Big Picture Blog... I will say some are very graphic, so view with caution!

Sunday, November 7, 2010

World's Worst Weather...

Just got done watching a great show on the travel channel called, World's Worst Weather... There were so many great storm chasers on the show, and I'm sure it will be replayed in the near future... If you missed out tonight, I highly recommend watching when it is re-aired!

The show really took me back to an insane Friday the 13th in Port Charlotte, FL... That was the most amazing day of my life, as I'll NEVER forget Hurricane Charley for as long as I live! I have posted several pictures I shot during Charley on my facebook/twitter/blog over the years (Including probably the best picture I have ever shot in my life on my blog homepage - see above), but I came across one today that I always just tossed to the side as a "bad shot"... However, after listening to Jim Edds describe the fear he experienced during Charley, I started to look back at this "bad shot" much differently... I was in a more protected area than Jim, but of course I was scared... Funny enough though, I was most scared a few hours before Charley made landfall, as I was sitting in Port Charlotte by about noon that day! One of the better/lucky forecasts I have made with the help of my chase partners Josh Johnson & John Walker... Also, one of my mentors Doug Gillham was a HUGE help as well... Always have to consider friction with these fast moving compact storms!

Anyways, sitting there and getting phone calls from friends saying it's up to 125mph, then 145mph, started to scare us a little! At that point I had only chased Hurricanes Lili & Isabel, so I had no idea what to expect! So now when I look back at this "bad shot" I can see the fear/anticipation/excitement all wrapped into one... Ok, so here is the picture... I shot this while me and Josh/John were driving around Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda, FL, looking for a place to hide! Not the best picture of me, but hey, I think it speaks for itself! lol...

The look of, what did I get myself into? Hurricane Charley - 8/13/04...

©Greg Nordstrom 2004

Saturday, November 6, 2010

3 Favorites...

I love weather, and while hurricanes are by far my favorite, I still love severe weather and snow a lot... So, since it's a fairly slow night, I wanted to post three 3 unique photos I've shot over the years on my 3 favorite aspects of weather... Each photo is someone else's experience of the event... One from a hurricane, nor' easter, and severe weather... Enjoy!

Abe Cox (Resident of Galveston, TX) looking in shock at the damage on Seawall Blvd... (Galveston, TX)(9/13/08)

Random resident braving the elements during a historic (28" at my location) Washington D.C. Nor' Easter... (Fairfax County, VA)(2/6/10)

Two students wearing Davy Crockett coonskin hats in a very photogenic Great Plains scene... (5/20/08)

©Greg Nordstrom 2008/2010

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Forecast Contest!

Sometimes I do some dumb stuff with the national forecast contest! I never seem to stick with my gut, as I seem to get talked down way too easily, or just play the game too many times! I'm going to have revisit my strategy, as this is driving me a little crazy! lol... I'm actually doing very well in the contest, but I don't really care about my ranking, as I'm my own biggest critic... I'm more frustrated with the time and energy I put into the contest! I don't think people realize how much time and effort it takes to do well... Yeah, I could put together a forecast in 5 minutes, but sorry, that's not me! I've been doing this for 9 years now, and I seem to put more and more time into it every year... Again, I don't think people realize the amount of time you need to put into this contest to do well... Especially, when you are defending two time national champs! That just adds to it! Not trying to get on a soap box, but the last two days have been VERY frustrating for me, as last minute decisions have cost me about 8 points! :-(

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Haiti, ten months later...

I felt like linking The Big Picture blog was very appropriate tonight... An amazing picture blog, that I'll once again recommend to everyone! There are 42 POWERFUL pictures showing the currert situation in Haiti! Over 300,000 dead and still over 1.3 million people homeless, living in makeship tent camps after the devastating earthquake back in January... This is why I have been so worried about Haiti since the forecast track of Tomas looked to be shifting north and east... Thankfully, Tomas is only a tropical storm, even though it is forecasted by the NHC to regain hurricane strength as it goes over the western portions of Haiti... This will put the devastated city of Port-au-Prince in the right front quadrant! This is a very bad developing situation! As much as one to two FEET of rain is "possible", leading to all sorts of flooding/mud slide issues... Plus, even minimal hurricane force winds is not a good thing when so many people are living in tents! Rainfall is what truly scares me though, as Tomas will not be moving very fast!!! Hopefully, Tomas will stay far enough west that this won't be too horrible! I'll be praying for Haiti, and hoping for the best!!!

Also, here are a few pictures from Jim Edds on site in Haiti waiting for Tomas (Click Here)... Make sure you follow Jim on twitter @extremestorms

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Excellent Weather Books!

Today I turned in my book order for my spring classes, and as always, I'm using a lot of Tim Vasquez books! A former Air Force meteorologist that runs stormtrack.org, Tim has written many great weather forecasting books over the years! He also has developed several great weather forecasting software products! I'll leave the link below, as I highly recommend everyone checking out his site! There are so many great books/products offered, and if you are an aspiring meteorologist or just love learning about weather forecasting, you should check out Tim's site! I have personally read all of his books... Enjoy!

Monday, November 1, 2010

Still not looking good for Haiti...

Of course things can change quickly in the tropics, but it is not looking good for Haiti, as Tomas is likely on its way! The NHC has Tomas striking Haiti as a 80 knot (92mph) hurricane! I think this forecast will be close, as I do expect Tomas to regain hurricane strength before landfall... Typically, I wouldn't worry too much about a category-1 hurricane, but Haiti is a different situation... The mountainous terrain is only going to enhance huge rainfall totals! I expect lots of mud slides/flooding... Plus, so many people are still living in tents from the earthquake, so 92mph winds is going to be a big problem if this does materialize! We'll see what happens, and there is still plenty of time for things to change... The best thing to say, is hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!