Yes, I stayed up to watch Tropical Storm Arlene make landfall. I can't help it! My forecast from late Sunday/early Monday worked out well, as Arlene formed, became a strong tropical storm, and moved into Mexico fairly close to Tampico. I would give myself an A- on this one since I was a little off on the landfall point. I'm proud of myself, but trust me, I'll be wrong plenty of times during the year. Tropical forecasting is just way too hard not to make mistakes. That's just weather forecasting in general, so get used to it if you are in this business. The key is to learn from mistakes as you go on, gaining as much experience as possible! If you are hitting 65-70% of your forecasts, then you are an amazing forecaster!
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The NHC now has Arlene becoming a strong 70mph tropical storm at landfall. The feedback has begun, and I wouldn't even be shocked at a category-1 hurricane at this point? She is coming together nicely! Expect landfall early tomorrow morning near Tampico, Mexico.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Tropical Storm Arlene has now formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. The maximum sustained winds are 40mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Phase one in my Arlene forecast is now complete, as I still expect a strong tropical storm at landfall. See below for my thoughts from late Sunday night.
The first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has formed, so if you are not prepared, take this as a warning. The time is now to get prepared!
Monday, June 27, 2011
I like the way 95L is coming together. Feedback will come! Match over gasoline! Here is what I put out late last night concerning the possibility of Arlene forming in the western Gulf of Mexico:
~ 3:00am: "I think we have a very good shot at Arlene forming in the western Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Expect some decent feedback before landfall in Mexico (Tampico to La Pesca). Not great white shark feedback, but more like blue shark feedback. Lol! Wouldn't be shocked at a strong tropical storm."
Still feel the exact same way tonight!
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Here is a great weather blog I recommend everyone checking out. It is written by Justyn Jackson, who I'm proud to call one of my best friends. We went to school together at Mississippi State, and he now works for the NWS service in Amarillo, TX. BY FAR the best severe weather mind I have ever been around. I have learned more about severe weather from Justyn, especially Deep South severe weather setups, than anyone/professor/book as ever taught me. It's honestly not even close! I know myself and many others hated to lose him here at MSU, but I know he'll make it far in the NWS. The SPC would be lucky to have him one day.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Friday, June 24, 2011
I have probably post this before a long time ago, but I was watching it today, and had to post it again. This is an unbelievable time lapse called "rapture", made by Tom Lowe. In my opinion, Tom Lowe is by far the best out there when it comes to time-lapse video/photography. Enjoy!
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
The GFS has been painting something in the western Gulf (on and off) for over a week now. The CMC is now on board (both the operational/ensembles), and the ECMWF (both the operational/ensembles) is trying to hint at some development also. It's something to watch very closely, as there "could" potentially be tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. In a few days we'll know a lot more, as I'll have many more updates "if" warranted.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Well, we now have Hurricane Beatriz in the eastern Pacific. Winds are 75mph with a pressure of 985mb. Beatriz will graze the Mexican coast, causing minimal hurricane conditions as it should stay at category-1 strength. Below is some satellite images and forecast graphics.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Just so you know, we have Tropical Storm Beatriz in the eastern Pacific. Winds are currently at 55mph with a pressure of 1000mb. Beatriz will never even get close to the strength of Hurricane Adrian, but it will have an impact along the Mexican coast (weak hurricane/strong tropical storm), which is most important. Something to watch for sure!
Friday, June 17, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
I finally broke down and bought an iPad 2. LOL! Honestly, I'm really excited to get it. It will really help with storm chasing, especially when chasing tornadoes. I've seen it in action before, and I'm looking forward to having a great storm chasing tool like this. Of course when I get on the storms, I'm 100% visually chasing, but it helps get you to that point.
In other news, I went back to the doctor again today. My ear is finally starting to feel better pain wise, but I still can't hear much at all. For those that don't know, I had a very severe ear infection that caused my eardrum to ruptured and drained blood/fluids for over 3 days. The pain is something I wouldn't wish on anyone! Thankfully, the doctor said it was healing slowly, and that I should regain most if not all of my hearing back. Not to sound like a wimp or anything, but this has been a trying experience for me, so that was great news to hear. Of course I'm still praying!
I'll be back in the groove here soon, as I'll get back to blogging about the tropics in detail. I'll also be updating my commentary on hurricanetrack.com a lot more starting this Monday. Even if there isn't much going on in the Atlantic basin, there is still plenty to talk about when it comes to hurricane forecasting/tips. Also, I love to talk about hurricane history!
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Here is a great lecture series given by fellow storm chaser Mike Theiss at the Annenburg in Los Angeles. It is a great lecture on his storm chasing experiences/work over the years. Mike is very passionate storm chaser, which really shows in his work! Enjoy!
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Friday, June 10, 2011
Hurricane Adrian is weakening rapidly as expected right now! Honestly though, Adrian is weakening even faster than I thought, as it may not be a hurricane for even 12 more hours. It is getting absolutely destroyed! Shear, cold waters, and mid-level dry air is just too much for Adrian.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Adrian is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140mph (946mb). A powerful Category-4 hurricane (20-25 nmi diameter eye). The NHC even said Hurricane Adrian had stabilized as an "Annular" hurricane on microwave satellite imagery. While probably near its peak intensity, it's amazing & beautiful to watch. Expect rapid weakening to start occurring by 24 hours as Adrian will encounter SW/W shear, colder waters, and more mid-level dry air. Here are some recent satellite images from tonight. Enjoy!
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
I'm sorry I haven't been around the last few days, but I'm in the middle of the worst ear infection of my life. It is so bad that it ruptured my eardrum and has been draining blood and such for more than 2 days now. I have dislocated my ankle before, and that hurt a lot, but I would put this right up there with that since it is my head. It really is brutal! Hopefully everything will heal quickly and I'll be back to full strength soon!
I'm still cutting videos on hurricanetrack.com for the clients, so look for my tropical updates there. If you are not a member yet, I highly recommend it. Hurricanetrack.com is the closest you will get to the hurricane without actually being in it. There is no other hurricane/weather site on the internet where you will get more bang for you buck! Here is a link to hurricanetrack.com for more information. Also, here is a link to my commentary page, which will start to be updated frequently next week.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
94L is looking better this morning, while it still has a ways to go to reach a depression yet alone Arlene. I expect this very slow improvement to continue as wind shear should slowly start to relax over the next few days, especially as I expect 94L to back away to the NW eventually. Also, the mid-levels should continue to moisten up. The models are still struggling with 94L, but again, until a true/defined center forms that makes sense. As far as I know, recon has cancelled its mission today (rescheduled for Monday), which is not going to help the models out any in the near term. Personally, I'm liking a more NW movement eventually, as 94L is still basically stationary right now. I still think 94L has a solid shot at becoming Arlene, as I expect what is now 94L to start affecting south Florida late next week. Again, this is going to be a very slow process as heavy rain still remains the overwhelming threat for Jamaica, Cuba, & Hispaniola. Potentially, this is a very serious threat/problem for those areas! More updates to come later...
Saturday, June 4, 2011
I was planning on going into great detail with 94L, but honestly there is just not that much to talk about. It's not looking the best on satellite imagery early this afternoon, which is fairly apparent with the visible image above. I still feel 94L has a solid shot at becoming Arlene in the next 3 days or so? Even if it only makes it to a depression (or even just stays an invest), heavy rain is the main threat regardless. This is potentially something that could be a fairly big problem for Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Especially, with 94L basically stationary right now. Expect a very slow drift north over the next few days.
There is about 15-20 knots of shear over 94L, especially over the northern half of 94L. Shear tendencies show a gradual increase, especially again over the northern half of 94L. This puts us at the critical 20 knot threshold line, but since we are only talking about a possible tropical depression or weak tropical storm, that shouldn't hinder it too much. Especially, considering the fact that we have decent moisture around 94L. Around 15-20 knots of shear with a major hurricane, and that would have a much greater impact on the system. Just something to keep in mind.
The models are still all over the place with 94L. Better data should start to come in (recon flying in tomorrow), but until a true center is established and can be locked on by the models, they are going to struggle. Which makes a lot of sense, as the models can on do so much! At this point all we can do is wait/watch for development, looking at real time observations, which is what you should always do with weather forecasting anyways. This is not to say that I don't look at the weather models ( I look at them several times a day), but always take real data over model data when possible! If things start to look interesting, I'll be back with an update...
Friday, June 3, 2011
Really believe 94L has a good shot at eventually becoming Arlene in about 3 days. The graphic below is the 0z early track from CSU. Of course the models are all over the place right now with 94L, but until a true center is established, that makes a lot of sense. One thing is for sure, it won't be moving very fast at all. Expect a very slow drift north over the next few days. Main threat is still very heavy rain for Cuba/Hispaniola, regardless if 94L develops into Arlene or not! Much more detailed updated tomorrow...
The disturbance in the Caribbean has now been designated 94L. While there was just too much dry air/wind shear for 93L to develop, conditions are more favorable for development with 94L. It's going to take some time, but I think 94L has a legitimate shot at becoming the first named storm of the season. The main threat will be heavy rain across Cuba/Hispaniola! The models are all over the place right now, but that makes sense until we get a ture center. 94L is not going to moving very fast, that's for sure! I'll have a much more detailed update tomorrow!
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Right on cue, we have 93L of the Florida coast. Nothing too much to worry about in the long term, but just a taste of what I believe will be a high impact hurricane season. See my 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season thoughts/ideas here. What I feel like is our first legitimate threat of tropical cyclone development (first named storm?), will be in the Caribbean this weekend/early next week. It will definitely be somethings to watch, as the model are hinting at northerly to northeaterly movement towards the general vicinity of extreme SE Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. It's still pretty far out, but it's something to watch for sure. I'll leave you a few hurricane trailers to get you ready since the season is now here!