EYE OF THE STORM

The Dangers of Chasing

2012-02-11T00:05:00.004-06:00

Here is a great essay by Chuck Doswell on the dangers of chasing, specifically with tornado chasing. I agree with this 100%. When it comes to hurricane chasing, driving would still be the #1 danger in my eyes without a doubt. Obviously, lightning is a very minimal risk with hurricanes, but storm surge is NOTHING to mess with. It will destroy everything in its path and will kill you quick!

The Dangers of Chasing - Chuck Doswell

Invest 90L

2012-02-05T13:42:00.006-06:00

We have an invest (90L) on Super Bowl Sunday! While rare, this does happens from time to time. On Groundhog Day 1952, a tropical storm struck South Florida, as the NWS in Miami recorded a wind gust of 68mph. I'll leave some links below about this rare tropical storm...

1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm - Stormpulse

1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm - Micael Laca (tropmet.com)

1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm - Wikipedia

1/28/1922: "Knickerbocker" Snowstorm

2012-01-28T14:55:00.004-06:00

RT @wxhistorian 1/28/1922: The “Knickerbocker” storm dumped 28" of snow on Washington DC in 32 hr (city's worst).

Today is the 90th anniversary of the biggest snowstorm in Washington DC history (recorded). 28" of snow fell in DC, even though there were higher reports nearby. Here are several links talking about this historic storm. I will also include two links to video I shot during the back to back Washington DC Nor'easter/Blizzard in February 2010. At my location I had 27/28" follow by 12/13" in a 5-6 day period. Pretty amazing!

90th Anniversary "Knickerbocker" Snowstorm - Accuweather

The Knickerbocker Snowstorm - weatherbook.com

The Knickerbocker Snowstorm - Wikipedia

The Knickerbocker Snowstorm - Capital Weather Gang

Washington DC Snowfall History - NWS Sterling, VA

My Chase Videos:

February 5-6th, 2010 Washington DC Nor'easter - © Greg Nordstrom 2010

February 10th, 2010 Washington DC Blizzard - © Greg Nordstrom 2010

The Day it Snowed in Miami

2012-01-19T22:19:00.007-06:00

Today marks the 35th anniversary of the day it snowed in Miami! Funny enough, back on January 9th, 2010 when I was visiting my parents in Coral Gables, there were a few reports of very light snow flurries across Miami-Dade county. I saw maybe a flake or two fly, but nothing official was recorded. Morning lows were near freezing, which is pretty darn rare for Miami. I believe the all time record low is officially 27 degrees? I'll leave some screen captures I grabbed from the news that day below...

I'm also going to leave two links talking about this historic event. The first is from local 10 in Miami, and chief meteorologist Trent Aric. Trent and I went to school together at Mississippi State, so I know him well. He put together a cool video blog talking about the setup that brought some light snow to South Florida. Make sure you check it out as he does a great job! The second link is from the Miami Herald, who wrote a great article on "The day it snowed in Miami". There are lots of great personal accounts, so make sure you check it out as well. I'm a huge weather historian at heart, so I hope you enjoy!

Local 10 Miami - Trent Aric

Miami Herald - January 19th, 1977: The Day it Snowed in Miami

Clearing The Valdez Snow

2012-01-16T21:15:00.002-06:00

Check out some of these amazing images out of Valdez, AK. Valdez has received 332 inches of snow this winter. So far that is... Wow!

Clearing the Valdez snow

Amazing Shots!

2012-01-10T15:42:00.003-06:00

Here are some amazing shots from The Big Picture blog. One of my favorite blogs out there!

National Geographic Photography Contest Winners: 2011

Happy New Year!

2012-01-01T01:11:00.008-06:00

Sorry I haven't blogged in a long time, but I have been in South Florida/Caribbean the last few weeks. Currently I'm working on a project focused on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. It has been an honor to talk with Jerry Wilkinson, who is the president of the historical preservation society of the Upper Keys. The wealth of knowledge Mr. Wilkinson has on the 1935 Hurricane is second to none. If you refer to the image above (courtesy of Micahel Laca - tropmet.com), you can see the rescue train derailed and what's left of Leo Washington's house. With the help of Mr. Wilkinson, we have located the exact spot of Leo Washington's house and can now locate, within a few feet, where the train box cars (engine & tender stayed on the tracks) rested after a storm surge of 15-20 feet swept it off the FEC tracks around 8:30pm September 2nd, 1935. Pretty darn cool!

Also, I had the great opportunity to talk to a survivor of the 1935 Hurricane. Here is what I posted on facebook. This is only the beginning, as there will be much more to come!

"Another amazing day in the Upper Keys! Had the chance to interview Paul Everett Albury Jr., a survivor of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. He was 8 years old at the time of the storm. The house he was in with his family/friends floated about 250 feet to the south side of the FEC railroad tracks at mile marker 92."

Hurricane Kate

2011-12-12T17:53:00.002-06:00

From Michael Laca: In honor of Hurricane Kate's new-found notoriety as the latest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, I have re-mastered my chase footage from this incredible storm and it's now available to view on YouTube! Be sure to turn your speakers up and enjoy!!!

Hurricane Kate (November 21st, 1985) - Michael Laca

The Latest From Tom Lowe

2011-12-06T18:33:00.004-06:00

Here is the latest from Tom Lowe. In my opinion, the best time-lapse photographer/videographer out there! Enjoy!

Master of the Skies and Stars: Tom Lowe and his new film TIMESCAPES

Hurricane Irene Video

2011-12-03T01:55:00.004-06:00

Here is some awesome Hurricane Irene video (part - I) shot by my friend José M. García! I had a great time chasing Hurricane Irene/talking hurricane history with José and many others on this chase! Look forward to meeting again under the next eyewall... Enjoy!

Hurricane Irene Video - José M. García

*Look for part II soon!

The 2011 Hurricane Season in 4.5 Minutes

2011-12-01T00:38:00.003-06:00

Here is the 2011 Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes... Enjoy!

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes

No Snow...

2011-11-29T14:33:00.010-06:00

Even when the first talk of snow started on Friday, I felt very confident that Starkville would see no accumulations. And, that's what happened. I saw a few tiny flakes mixed in with some steady light rain around 2am, but other than that, nothing. I was a little surprised so many were going a little crazy about this event, but I understand when you even say the "s" word in the Deep South, people are going to get a little crazy. If this would have been the end of January, different story, but we were still too warm (ground temps way too warm).

I had a feeling the models were overdoing the cold air, as it turned out our WBZ heights hovered around 1,200-1,500 feet. Here is what I said on facebook/twitter... The point about forecast soundings vs. forecast thickness values is really important! Don't get suckered in by the 540 line or the 850mb 0 degree line. You really need to analyze a forecast sounding in detail to even be fairly accurate with winter weather forecasting (model trends/pattern recognition big as well). I'll write a blog post soon on this, as thickness values are almost worthless!

" WBZ heights near a 1,000 feet Tuesday morning "may" lead to a few hours of wet snow. NO accumulations for Starkville! Models are a little cold IMO, and lack of dynamic cooling is an issue. Only a couple hundredths an hour during that time frame. FYI... Always use forecast soundings over forecast thickness values when forecasting winter weather, unless you want to get burned! Thickness values are just an average, not going to account for important details like melting layers, WBZ heights, snow growth region, etc... #Bufkit "

Weather Shoes

2011-11-25T20:49:00.002-06:00

These are pretty darn cool! Not a huge fan of the colors, but love the idea. Weather shoes brought to you by Kevin Durant...

Weather Shoes - Kevin Durant

2003 Presidents Day II Nor'easter

2011-11-21T22:19:00.004-06:00

Here is some fun video I put together from the 2003 Presidents Day II Nor'easter. We (Myself, Justyn Jackson, Andy Wood, Todd Beal, and John Walker) were located near Washington D.C. (Fairfax County, VA). About 18" of snow/sleet at our location, and at the time, this was the 6th greatest snowstorm in Washington D.C. history (recorded). This video is a long time coming, taken during our undergrad days at Mississippi State. Fun times! Enjoy!

2003 Presidents Day II Nor'easter - Greg Nordstrom

Tuscaloosa, AL Tornado Video

2011-11-18T22:52:00.004-06:00

Here is some incredible footage from the Tuscaloosa, AL tornado on 4/27/11. This was taken from the Alabama One Credit Union security camera...

Tuscaloosa, AL - Security Camera

Sugar, Sand, Sleet

2011-11-17T23:18:00.005-06:00

The finest sleet I have ever seen in my life! It really was like sugar/sand...

Presidents Day Nor'easter - Washington DC (February 16-17th 2003)

Ready To Chase A Nor'easter

2011-11-15T22:59:00.009-06:00

Half way through November, no threat in the tropics, and I'm feeling the itch to chase a nor' easter. I really do love snow, even though I hate the cold? Lol! Hurricanes will always be number one in my book, but nor'easters are a fairly close second. I've been in my fair share (1993, 1996, 2003, 2010), all in Northern Virginia (Arlington/Fairfax Counties), but I'm ready for another historic Washington D.C. bomb! I came across some old school video I shot during a historic 2003 nor' easter I'm going to edit here soon. In the mean time, here is some cool video I shot during the back to back nor'easter/blizzard in 2010 (Snowmageddon). Enjoy!

February 5-6th, 2010 Nor'easter (Fairfax County, VA)

February 10th, 2010 Blizzard (Fairfax County, VA)

The 1987 Veterans Day Snowstorm Remembered

2011-11-11T23:11:00.003-06:00

Here is a great link remembering the 1987 Veterans Day Snowstorm in Washington DC. The biggest November snowstorm (recorded) in Washington DC history!

"Notice that it reached the 60s the day before and the forecast was for highs in the 50s with scattered light rain." Oops!

The 1987 Veterans Day Snowstorm Remembered

November 10th, 2002

2011-11-10T11:46:00.005-06:00

9 years ago tonight was the biggest November tornado outbreak in recorded US history. I wrote a detailed blog post last year on the 8th anniversary, and I also hit on topics like Dixie Alley. At the time I originally wrote this, Alabama had more tornadoes in November than any other month of the year. Obviously, that is not the case anymore with the recent huge April tornado outbreaks (April 15th & 27th). Enjoy!

8 Years Ago Tonight - November 10th, 2002 Tornado Outbreak

Tipton, OK - Mesonet

2011-11-09T21:39:00.003-06:00

From Oklahoma Mesonet:

"Our technicians have returned from Tipton and Fort Cobb with amazing stories. We'll post more pictures tomorrow, but here's what our calibration staff have been able to retrieve from the recovered dataloggers:

Tipton recorded a wind gust of 86.4 mph before it was destroyed. The anemometer has yet to be found. The site experienced a pressure drop of 47.16 mb in 1 minute, recording a low of 913.47 mb!

Fort Cobb recorded a wind gust of 91.4 mph before it was driven into the ground. It had a more gradual pressure drop of 14 mb, recording a low of 944.81 mb."

WOW!

Crazy Tornado Video!

2011-11-07T21:43:00.003-06:00

Sorry I haven't posted in a week, but things have been very busy for me. Short post tonight, as I'm going to link some crazy tornado video from Andy Gabrielson near Tipton, OK today. By the way, there is ZERO connection between today's tornadoes and the recent earthquakes in Oklahoma. NONE!

Andy Gabrielson Tornado Video - Tipton, OK

Presidents Day Snowstorm of 1979

2011-10-30T00:12:00.000-05:00

This is probably my favorite "eye-like" feature in any Nor' easter. Also, one of my all time favorite storms to read/study about... Before the storm, the NWS called for 1-3" of snow in/around Washington DC. Instead, almost 2 feet of snow fell! - Presidents Day Snowstorm of 1979 (Feb 18th-19th)

October East Coast BOMB!

2011-10-29T17:29:00.008-05:00

Florida + Snowtober

2011-10-28T23:40:00.002-05:00

While Rina is dead and did not take a Wilma like track, look at the IR image above. You can see the blow off/convection once associated with Rina over Florida as I write this post. So in the end, I really don't think my idea of the upper flow "pulling" Rina towards Florida was a bad forecast. Rina just got killed by way too much dry air/shear... Regardless, this tropical moisture will only enhance one heck of an October Nor' easter for the East Coast this weekend. From about Washington D.C/Baltimore to Maine (Also the Appalachians) expect a very impressive snow storm for late October. There will be a nice swath of 6-12" snows from central/eastern PA into central/eastern Maine. Locally, I wouldn't be shocked at snow amounts of 15-18" in several locations. Definitely a storm you should follow this weekend, as it will be fairly darn historic for late October. In my personal opinion, this is only the first of many big Nor' easters this season!

Last Rina Update

2011-10-27T21:52:00.004-05:00

Tropical Storm Rina is getting destroyed by dry air and shear! I thought it would hang on long enough for the upper flow to "grab" Rina pulling it on a Wilma like track. This is not going to happen, as Rina will miss the trough and sit near the Yucatan Peninsula until it's death. This was always very possible, and looks to be a done deal at this point. I'll leave you with the same Matrix quote I posted in the last post below. Just replace Mr. Anderson with Rina! lol

"You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson..."

Hurricane Rina Update

2011-10-25T22:48:00.021-05:00

I really think the dry air is beginning to take its toll on Hurricane Rina. The overall convection has shrunk, and I really believe once it starts interacting with land tomorrow (also increased wind shear), the dry air will begin to entrain. Honestly, in my eyes, it is a miracle it hasn't entrained yet. I still expect a track similar to Wilma, as I do think South Florida will experience minimal hurricane (absolute max)/tropical storm (far more likely) conditions this weekend. I'll be the first to say I never saw Rina getting to 110mph (still "may" be able to get a little stronger - major hurricane?), but I think the clock is ticking on the dry air. I feel like I'm watching the Matrix...

"You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson..."

Now I don't think Hurricane Rina will completely die (even though it's very possible) because of the dry air/increased wind shear, but it's going to weaken it substantially without a doubt. We are most likely at/close to the max intensity for Rina. More updates to come...

Hurricane Rina

2011-10-24T21:50:00.013-05:00

While I thought Rina could become a hurricane, I'll be the first to say it has strengthened much faster than I originally thought. With dry air all around and strong shear to the north, I thought it would be a much slower process. Of course this just goes to show how hard tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is, as I really believe the incredibly warm ocean waters has to be the main reason for intensification. That and the dry air staying out of the core/less wind shear than originally thought. If you look at the TCHP map I provide, you can really see the warm water Hurricane Rina is moving over, as this is some of the warmest/deepest waters in the entire Atlantic Basin.

So what does the future hold for Hurricane Rina? Well, the NHC now has Rina becoming a major hurricane (115mph), which is much different than the 60mph max intensity they originally forecasted. I still have a hard time seeing that with all the dry air around, but I guess it is possible with the warm/deep waters it is currently in. As it eventually moves north and begins to interact with land/increased wind shear, I really believe dry air will begin to entrain Hurricane Rina. It will eventually start looking like a "cinnamon roll" when the dry air does entrain. Once that happens, it will being to weaken...

As for the track? Man, that's tough, but I personally lean towards something similar to Hurricane Wilma. By the way, today is the 6 year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma's landfall near Cape Romano, FL as a category-3 hurricane (125mph). Obviously, I don't think it will be near as strong, but I guess there is an ok/decent shot South Florida could experience minimal hurricane/strong tropical storm conditions this weekend. I personally think the trough will be stronger than forecasted, as Rina will race towards the NE once it is caught. We have plenty of time to watch Hurricane Rina, as things can/do change quickly in the tropics! The threat to the US has increased without a doubt in the last 24 hours in my opinion. Many more updates to come!

TD #18

2011-10-23T15:51:00.007-05:00

TD #18 has formed in the Western Caribbean and is expected to become tropical storm Rina fairly soon. The environment is not favorable at all for rapid development. I agree 100% with the NHC's top forecast of 60mph (I guess it could make it to a hurricane as intensity forecasting is tough to say the least). The further north it moves, the worst the upper air environment it will encounter. There is just too much dry air/shear in my opinion! Not seeing a big threat to the US at this time...

NOAA Winter Outlook

2011-10-20T22:15:00.005-05:00

Personally, I expect a similar winter/spring to 2010/2011. I'l write a detailed post here soon as to why, but the pattern is similar overall. Also, with the extra rising motion in the tropics (More upward/rising motion in the tropics will lead to troughs digging in more than normal during the early part of winter), I expect an early/cold start to the winter like last year as well. Deep troughs! Here is the NOAA winter outlook:

NOAA Winter Outlook

The Big Picture Blog

2011-10-18T23:00:00.004-05:00

It has been a while since I posted a link to the Big Picture blog, but here are a couple good weather ones I haven't posted yet. This really is a fantastic blog! Enjoy!

Texas Drought & Wildfires

Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Jova Chase Accounts

2011-10-17T23:13:00.002-05:00

Here are two great chase account from Hurricane Jova... Enjoy!

Hurricane Jova Chase Account 1 - Josh Morgerman with Jim Edds

Hurricane Jova Chase Account 2 - Mike Theiss

Amazing Time Lapse

2011-10-16T19:59:00.002-05:00

Here is an amazing time lapse from Dustin Farrell. Amazing is actually an understatement... Enjoy!

Landscapes: Volume Two - Dustin Farrell

Northern Lights

2011-10-14T23:23:00.003-05:00

This is an amazing link to an almost "how-to" guide to Northern Lights photography. There is lots of great tips/suggestions, as I highly recommend this link to everyone. Definitely going to "chase" this in 2012/2013. One of the top weather related (also lake effect snow) goals left on the bucket list that I haven't seen yet!

Auroral Photography: A guide to capturing the Northern Lights

Incredible Lightning Time Lapse

2011-10-13T23:20:00.004-05:00

Here is one of the best lightning time lapses I have ever seen in my life! Shot by Jeff Gammon off the coast of Jupiter Beach, FL, this really is some incredible shots. For more amazing work by Jeff, check out his website: stormvisuals.com

Jeff Gammons - Jupiter Beach, FL Lightning Time Lapse

10 Years of LDCT

2011-10-12T23:48:00.003-05:00

A name coined by Tim Wallace (Long Distance Chase Team), LDCT was born 10 years ago today! Our first chase (Myself, Josh Johnson, Justyn Jackson, & Todd Beal) was a 27 1/2 hour straight chase from Starkville, MS to Waco, TX and back. The first of well over a hundred chases (Hurricanes/Tropical Storms, Severe Weather/Tornadoes, & Nor' Easters/Blizzards) over the next 10 years. Time sure flies when you are chasing. Here is to another successful 10 years!

Hurricane Jova

2011-10-11T20:48:00.005-05:00

Hurricane Jova is approaching the Mexican coast (Pacific) with sustained winds of 100mph and a minimum central pressure of 973mb. Expect landfall around 6z tonight...

Did a Tropical Storm Hit Florida Last Night?

2011-10-10T21:40:00.003-05:00

Did a tropical storm hit Florida last night? This is the title of a GREAT blog post by meteorologist Stu Ostro from the Weather Channel. I'll link the blog below, as I highly recommend this blog to everyone. It's a very detailed/informative post! Enjoy!

Did a tropical storm hit Florida last night? - Stu Ostro

AL DAVIS 1929-2011

2011-10-08T17:03:00.018-05:00

As a lifelong Raiders fan, I want to pay my respects to Al Davis. People can say what they want about Mr. Davis, but the Raiders are Al Davis. He did so much for the NFL, that without him, the AFC may not even exist today. He was the first owner to hire a Hispanic (Tom Flores) & African American head coach (Art Shell). He also was the first owner to hire a women (Amy Trask) as CEO. He was a man way ahead of his time, as he was maybe the greatest football mind the NFL has ever seen. I have been watching the Raiders hardcore since I was 7 years old, and even though I love my Lakers/UCLA Basketball, I would give every championship I have ever seen in my life, for just one more Raiders Super Bowl. JUST WIN BABY!

"I don't want to be the most respected team in the league," Mr. Davis said in 1981. "I want to be the most feared."

AFL's Coach of the year in 1963 (Raider went from 1-13 to 10-4 in his first year as coach)

AFL Commissioner in 1966 (Huge figure in the merger of the AFL & NFL)

Inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1992

Has been asked to present 9 players into the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Most in NFL history)

1967 AFL Championship

3 Time Super Bowl Champion: 1976, 1980, 1983 (5 Appearances)

16 Division Titles/21 Playoff Appearances

25 Playoff wins/411 Regular Season Wins

Only owner/CEO, head coach/assistant coach/scout, general manager, and commissioner in NFL history...

Remembering Al Davis: Steve Sabol takes a look back at the life of Al Davis

Cowboy's owner Jerry Jones honors Al Davis

The Autumn Wind is a Raider

*Back to weather on Monday. Again, I typically keep this blog 100% weather, but as silly as this may sound to some, the Raiders have shaped me as a person. God, then family/friends, then weather, then the Raiders!*

Steve Jobs 1955-2011 

2011-10-05T23:44:00.007-05:00

I typically try to keep this blog nearly 100% weather related, but from time to time I think there are good life lessons learned from other peoples lives. With the passing of Steve Jobs, here is one of those lessons, and something to keep in mind that was very well said by my good friend Josh Johnson...

"A little perspective. Steve Jobs' estimated net worth was over $8 billion. If you are reading this in good health, he would have gladly given every dime to have what you have right now. RIP Steve."

Hurricane Ophelia = BEAST!

2011-10-01T23:44:00.007-05:00

What a beast, as Hurricane Ophelia is now a monster category-4 hurricane. 140mph - 940mb. It has moved north of Bermuda, which only makes this more remarkable to me. It just goes to show how hard tropical cyclone intensity forecasting really is, as tropical cyclones this strong, this far north, is pretty darn rare!

Winter Chill - Snowmageddon Photos

2011-09-30T22:24:00.014-05:00

Tonight there is a nice winter chill in the air. Well, ok, it's more like a nice Fall chill (Tonight near 45, lower 40's on Sun/Mon). I grew up in Los Angeles, so it's fairly chilly to me for the first day of October. LOL! With this in mind, I wanted to post some photos I shot near Washington D.C. (February 2010) during "snowmadeddon". I expect an early/cold start to the winter, but I'll get into that another day... Enjoy the photos!

ALL PHOTOS ©GREG NORDSTROM 2010

5 Months Ago...

2011-09-27T18:33:00.010-05:00

My good friend Jim Edds reminded me that today was the 5 month anniversary of the 4/27/11 tornado outbreak. A day I'll never forget, as 4/27/11 will go down as one of the worst tornado outbreaks in US history. There are so many stories from that day, and I'm going to release a chase recap soon. I should have released it a long time ago, but I do have some video out from that historic day. I'll link that below...

4/27/11 (Macon, MS) - Greg Nordstrom

Video Recap: "Here is some raw video I shot during the 4/27/11 tornado outbreak (Super Outbreak II). I saw several tornadoes this day, but here is tornado footage I shot in Macon, MS. This same supercell produced an EF-5 tornado in Philadelphia, MS about 20-30 minutes earlier. It rained debris for about 5 minutes before the tornado appeared across a field. While a couple miles away, you could still see the violence associated with this tornado, as horizontal accessory vortices spun into the tornado from the right. At the end of the video (~5:15), you can hear some erie noises (Sounds like a swarm of bees) being made as the tornado moved rapidly to the east. I shot this with two different cameras and I "matched-up" some sequences at the end of the video to give you the viewer two different perspectives. Of course video can never do it justice... My thoughts and prayers still go out to everyone affected on this historic day!"

HURRICANECHASER.NET

©Copyright Greg Nordstrom 2011

6 Year Ago Today!

2011-09-25T23:14:00.003-05:00

On this day 6 years ago, Josh Johnson, Matt Miller, and myself were in my apartment when a F1 tornado from Hurricane Rita's feeder bands hit us. I just got home earilier that day from being in the eye of Hurricane Rita with Richard Hoseney in Orange, TX. Talk about ironic!

9/25/05 SPC Storm Report (Check out report from Dr. Mike Brown and MSU)

Tornado Hits MSU Campus - Story

MYSTERY TO UNLOCK SEVERE STORMS

2011-09-23T21:09:00.005-05:00

Got an AMAZING book today! MYSTERY TO UNLOCK SEVERE STORMS, Memoirs Of An Effort To Unlock, by Dr. Ted Fujita. This is a very rare book, and it took me two years to find it. I sure can't wait to read it! Special thanks to Ryan Wade for bringing my attention to this rare book...

Joplin, MO Tornado Assessment

2011-09-20T23:34:00.003-05:00

Below I'll leave a link to the Joplin, MO tornado assessment. 159 people lost their lives in this tornado, with over 1,000 injuries. This monster EF-5 tornado was the first tornado since the Flint, MI tornado of June 8, 1953 to result in over 100 fatalities. Like any weather disaster, lessons can and should be learned. This is a good read, so I highly recommend checking it out!

NOAA Joplin, MO EF-5 Tornado

Joplin, MO Tornado Assessment

December in Virginia

2011-09-17T22:22:00.014-05:00

I was looking through some old photos today, and came across a few from my December trip to Virginia. Here are 10 shots from Merry Point, VA. Beautiful area, especially in the snow... Enjoy!

All Photos ©Greg Nordstrom 2010

Tornado Art

2011-09-15T20:35:00.006-05:00

Chuck Doswell posted a link to some really cool tornado art, so I figured I would share it with everyone. These paintings are done by John Brosio, and all are oil on canvas unless otherwise stated. Mr. Brosio has some great images, so I recommend checking them out... Enjoy!

John Brosio - Tornado Art

Must Buy DVD/Blu-Ray

2011-09-13T19:23:00.005-05:00

Jim Edds and Jeff Gammons have worked together to put out their latest project, "Hurricane Irene - Journey to Hope Town". It is available on both DVD and Blu-Ray... Jim Edds is a good friend of mine, and is one of the best storm chasers out there. His work is always very professional and awesome to watch. I have several of his DVD's and they are all great! Go buy your copy today, as Jim Edds takes the worst Hurricane Irene has to offer in Hope Town, Abaco, Bahamas!

Hurricane Irene - Journey to Hope Town

9-11-01 METARS

2011-09-11T00:15:00.003-05:00

No words needed...

KJFK 111351Z 3507KT 10SM FEW010 SCT250 23/13 A3014 RMK A02 SLP205 FU FEW010 FU PLUME DSNT NW DRFTG SE T02280133

KLGA 111551Z 34008KT 10SM FEW000 SCT050 SCT250 24/13 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP196 FU FEW000 FU AND DEBRIS PLUME SW FROM SFC-040 DRFTG SE T02440128

Tropical Storm Nate, Track, and Strength

2011-09-09T22:34:00.010-05:00

Well, I really thought Tropical Nate would track more north. With a deep trough to the N/NE, it made the most sense to me. Thankfully for the US, enough of some ridgging built in to the north, which is causing TS Nate to move south/west. I always knew it was a tough forecast, but I would forecast a more northerly motion each and every time with this setup. The ridgging was so small to the north, that I just didn't see it or envision it developing. No excuses though, I was wrong. I will say, I think the fact TS Nate was so small played a big role in this. If it would have be a larger storm, I really don't see how it could have missed the trough? I guess we'll never know though...

With the strength, the dry air was just too much, as I don't see Tropical Storm Nate making it to a hurricane anymore. This was a tough forecast all around, but you live and learn when it comes to forecasting, storm chasing, and weather in general. I always try to learn as much as I can from each forecast, as I also always try my best not to make the same mistake twice. Some may laugh at this, but personally, I learn much more from the forecasts I'm wrong about, then the ones I nail. I will file this in the back of my mind, that's for sure. Still a lot of hurricane season left!

Tropical Storm Nate Update

2011-09-08T16:13:00.016-05:00

Tropical Storm Nate is deepening this afternoon. Now a 70mph tropical storm with a central pressure of 995mb. Yesterday, I stated that the arching pattern of the clouds suggested for some fairly quick deepening, but I was also very worried about all the dry air around. In the end, I still feel as long as the dry air doesn't entrain into the core of TS Nate, it will continue to deepen. Should be a hurricane soon enough!

The track is still tough, but I personally still like a more northerly path (The NHC has come north since yesterday). With a deep trough across the eastern US, I just think a track more north/northeast makes the most sense. Of course I'm not saying northern Mexico (And Texas) is in the clear, but if I lived along the northern Gulf Coast, I would watch TS Nate very closely. No comment with potential strength, but I will say, the further east TS Lee stays from Texas/Lee's track, the stronger it should become. Of course the dry air is still a big concern, but it does seem to be slowly moistening up some. There is still a ton of dry air around though! Many more updates to come...

CHECK THIS OUT! Here is an amazing visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Nate... Enjoy!

*UPDATE 10PM* Well, tonight's data sure looks a lot more like a Mexico hit. While I really thought a more northerly path made the most sense to me, I may be dead wrong! Not sure what to think anymore... Hmmm?

Tropical Storm Nate

2011-09-07T16:18:00.011-05:00

Well, 96L sure developed faster than I thought, as we now have Tropical Storm Nate in the Bay of Campeche. There is still a ton of dry to the N/NW, so you would think Nate is going to have a tough time developing into a hurricane. However, if you look at the satellite imagery, you see nice curved banding occurring, as it looks like Nate is going to deepen fairly quickly. Hmmm? If it can keep the dry air out of the core, then I think Nate will deepen. If the dry air is entrained, then Nate will struggle.

The track is tough as well. The NHC has Nate heading towards Northern Mexico (La Pesca) very slowly, pretty much taking 6 days to get onshore. Personally, I'm leaning with a more northward motion. Again, this is not an easy forecast (What is in the topics these days? lol)... The trough to the north/northeast makes me think more of a northerly motion, so I'm going with my gut/instincts here. I'll look at things in much more depth tonight, but I'm personally leaning with a more northerly track at this moment. In my opinion, anywhere from northern Mexico to the panhandle of Florida needs to watch TS Nate closely, as there is potential for a huge track error. In about 24 hours or so, we should have an answer whether the more northerly motion makes sense or not...

Quickly on Tropical Storm Maria, I really don't have much change to my original thoughts. I think it will take a track similar to Irene, but most likely a little more east. Especially when it gets off the coast of North Carolina, as I don't see a New England hit in Maria's future. Personally, it looks to me like it will be east enough to miss the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Again, still a tough forecast, as we have plenty of time to watch things...

Here is a great global water vapor image my good friend Jim Edds posted on twitter. It really shows you the extent of the dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and the position of the trough...

Tropical Storm Nate - Stormpulse

Tropical Storm Maria - Strompulse

Northwest Weather Podcast + TD 14 + 96L

2011-09-06T19:44:00.019-05:00

Quickly, we have TD#14 and 96L in the Atlantic basin right now. We also have Katia, but she is heading out with the fishes... With TD#14, I'm in agreement with the NHC's track. I believe this will be a threat to the Bahamas and then most likely the East Coast. There is no point in getting into specific details right now, but I do think it is a legitimate threat in my opinion. If I had to put out a general track forecast right now, my instincts says a track fairly similar to Irene. Now please don't go out and say I think this is Irene part two, I just think the track "looks" similar at this time. There is still plenty of time to figure out the details in the coming days, as things can/do change quickly in the tropics. It could EASILY go more west or east? What will be Maria may also have to navigate Hispaniola (The Rock), which is a hurricane killer. So many factors to keep in mind right now!

With 96L, it's a tough forecast! My belief/instinct is 96L will slowly develop as it starts heading/drifting north. How far north? That's still very tough to say, but I would watch this very closely. If 96L does develop (Sure is a LOT of dry around the Gulf of Mexico), it will be called Nate. Anywhere from Mexico to Florida needs to watch this...

In other news, I have linked below a podcast I recorded with Brian MacMillan late last week. Brian is a former student of mine and does a great job with his podcasts. We talked about Hurricane Irene, storm chasing, and many other interesting weather topics. It's called the Northwest Weather Podcast. Enjoy!

Northwest Weather Podcast - Episode 14

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

2011-09-05T22:41:00.013-05:00

Below is a post from my old blog I put out over 2 years ago. Today is not the anniversary, but since it is Labor Day, I thought it was appropriate. The strongest hurricane to ever hit the US! In recorded history at least...

Also, here is a great link my good friend Jim Edds sent me on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Click here to check it out!

Today is the 74 year anniversary of the strongest landfalling hurricane in US history! It struck near Long Key, FL at a record pressure of 892mb (Craig Key, FL) on September 2nd 1935. The actual pressure may have been a little lower at landfall, but 892mb (26.35") was the lowest officially recorded. Wind gusts at times were over/around 200 mph, which is just crazy! I'm been to Florida Keys a few times and I always stop at the hurricane monument (Islamorada) on the way down to Key West. I highly recommend everyone to check it out one day! Here is some very interesting articles and personal stories on this historic storm...

Monthly Weather Review Article

From Original Newspaper Article

History of 1935 Labor Day Monument

Quick TS Lee Update...

2011-09-04T14:37:00.011-05:00

Came home this afternoon and have a quick observation about Tropical Storm Lee. While there is still a lot of dry air around, the "moisture field" has increased a lot since last night. This should increase the rainfall potential. The flooding threat continues with or without the dry air, but this increase in moisture will unfortunately increase the flooding threat at well. Check out Stu Ostro's page on facebook/twitter, as he has a cool graphic depicting this. In the end, the dry air really saved the northern Gulf Coast from potentially a really bad flood event in my opinion. Yes, there will still be flooding (some bad spots), but without the dry air, I think this event could have been historic! The remnants of Lee needs to be watch closely as it moves into the Appalachians (Flooding threat will continue). Also, keep in mind that the tornado threat continues as well...

Tropical Storm Lee + Katia

2011-09-04T02:00:00.020-05:00

Very quick post here... The onslaught of dry air continues, as Tropical Storm Lee is getting destroyed. You can thank the state of Texas and its horrible drought for this. I mean, we all saw earlier in the season when Texas basically ate Tropical Storm Don! In the end this dry air is a blessing to the northern Gulf Coast. In my opinon, it's keeping TS Lee from becoming an extremely bad flooding event. Of course many places have received a lot of rain already, as Lee will likely lead to flooding, but this dry air is keeping it from becoming as bad as it could be for the northern Gulf Coast. I will add, beware the threat for some tornadoes the next couple of days!

Still no changes with Katia! This is going to be close enough to scare people, as I stated on Tuesday. While a few people thought I was crazy at the time, the trend continues west. I still feel like Katia will just miss, but it's going to be fairly close. A great example of why pattern recognition will almost always beat long range model guidance. Katia needs to be watched closely...

Check out the 0z ECMWF. It shows a powerful hurricane just off the North Carolina coast at 168 hours. I personally think this run is going to be fairly close (probably a tad too far west) to what actually happens, as I would watch Katia very closely. It's not going to take much for the US to get impacted to some extent! Image complements of Dr. Ryan Maue, which has an amazing model page by the way! By far the best I've seen, as I use it all the time...

Tropical Storm Lee & Hurricane Katia

2011-09-02T21:38:00.010-05:00

First with Tropical Storm Lee. You can clearly see on water vapor how dry air is entraining into this tropical cyclone. This will most likely prevent Lee from becoming a hurricane. Of course when you are dealing with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico I wouldn't rule anything out, but because of this dry air, I'm thinking more of a solid to maybe a strong tropical storm. Regardless, the story with Tropical Storm Lee will be the torrential rains and flooding. With Lee forecasted to move very slow (Agree 100% with the NHC's forecast), only being near New Orleans by the early afternoon on Sunday, this is shaping up to be a big flooding event. I won't go as far as Allison in 2001 and Danny in 1997, however, the potential is there for some major flooding. Just look at the 5-day totals forecasted by the HPC. Almost 2 feet of rain near New Orleans, with well over a foot of rain all across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and the coastal areas of Alabama. Even if Lee somehow becomes a hurricane, the story of this storm will be heavy rainfall and flooding.

With Hurricane Katia, I still have zero change to my forecast. The trend continues west, as I think Katia will be close enough to scare many people along the eastern seaboard. I still think it barely misses, but again, close enough to raise some hairs. I will say Lee could be a factor on how close Katia gets. If the remnants of Lee "hook up" with Katia, then I would watch out near Cape Cod, MA for a possible landfall. Personally, I don't see that at this time, but it's something to watch closely. Don't sleep on it! A few people came at me hard on Tuesday when I said this would come close to the US coast, mainly because the model didn't show it. I really didn't care what the models showed, as you live by the model, you'll die by the model. All I used was pattern recognition and the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection I learned many years ago from Joe Bastardi. It will almost always beat model guidance, especially 7-10 days out. In the end, this will be a great example of that. We'll see what happens, but there is no doubt the trend continues west!

TD 13 & Katia

2011-09-01T19:58:00.010-05:00

TD #13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and should become TS Lee soon enough. The story with what should become Lee is going to be heavy rains and flooding. Many of these areas need rain of course, but not over a foot (maybe two?) of rain. That's just bad! I really don't have a problem with the NHC's track, even though please keep in mind this is still a tough forecast. Like the NHC pointed out in their discussion, the center could "move around" or "reform" under deeper convection. Also, what should become Lee will meander around very slowly, as an exact track is tough to say the least. Like always, make sure you focus on the cone, and not on the center line. I expect TD #13 to at least get to a solid/strong tropical storm, but a hurricane is still very possible. However, even if TD #13 does become a hurricane, the overwhelming threat is heavy rain/flooding. That will be the main story with "Lee".

Really quick with Katia. I still expect the trend to continue west, as I think Katia will just miss the US (Well west of Bermuda). I pointed this out on Tuesday (Based mainly on the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection I have learned from Joe Bastardi over the years), so hopefully this will be an example where pattern recognition will almost always beat model guidance, especially when it is 7-10 days out. Also, with Katia weakening a little to a tropical storm, this will only help it even more west in my personal opinion. Again, I still think Katia will miss, but it will be close enough to scare some people along the eastern seaboard. Many more updates to come!

Hurricane Irene Video + Hurricane Katia & 93L

2011-09-01T14:17:00.012-05:00

Ok, first with Hurricane Katia. The trend continues more west, which is not a surprise to me at all. I still think it misses the US, well west of Bermuda, but close enough to give a few scares along the east coast. This is why I'm all about pattern recognition and not model guidance, especially 7-10 days out. With 93L, still very tough. I will say it is starting to look more likely that 93L will move enough into the Louisiana that Texas won't have too many problems. However, that's not a lock by any means, just a trend. We'll see, as again, this is still a tough forecast. While I expect 93L to get named and become a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall/flooding. This could really be a big problem, as 93L is not going to move much over the next several days. Many more updates to come...

I also linked below some Hurricane Irene video I shot with my GoPro. Enjoy!

Hurricane Irene - Greg Nordstrom (Kill Devil Hills/Kitty Hawk, NC)

93L & Katia

2011-08-31T16:23:00.025-05:00

We now have 93L entering the Gulf of Mexico. I really thought this was going to happen, and it looks like things are slowly coming together. Again, the pattern screamed for this. I fully expect 93L to become Lee, and I'm still sticking with a Texas landfall. However, that's a VERY tough forecast right now. I honestly don't care what the models are saying at this time, but I have to at least recognize that the spread is massive (South Texas to the Florida Panhandle). We will have a better idea by Thursday night/Friday morning, as this should meander around the Gulf for a few days. I'll be the first to say this is one tough forecast. But hey, that's the tropics for you, and I personally enjoy the challenge!

With Katia, I still think it is going to miss the US, but by a lot less than most think. I definitely have it well west of Bermuda, and this is a real threat to the Canadian Maritimes in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but I like a more west track than most. Many more updates to come on 93L & Katia. I'll try to put out a detailed post tomorrow night!

*Update 10 am* It is starting to look like 93L will just sit in the Northern Gulf and meander around for many days (Bad news for flooding rainfall!). I personally see it becoming a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane, but again, this is really tough! The track forecast is ridiculously tough still. While I'm sticking with a movement back SW towards Texas, it could easily go N/NE into LA, MS, AL, or the panhandle of Florida. It could also go into Louisiana and then pop back out into the Gulf and start heading towards Texas? Maybe by tomorrow morning I'll have a better handle on it. I know that's not what many want to hear, but it's just being honest. Very hard forecast!

Just My Thoughts...

2011-08-30T17:00:00.010-05:00

I posted on facebook today that the next 10 days should be interesting/challenging out in the tropics. I personally feel Lee will develop and go into the Gulf (Most likely Texas), and I also think Katia is at least a threat to the east coast (Most likely North Carolina). I'm not predicting any disaster or any specific details, just there is a legitimate threat, that's all. I refuse to base my forecast on 7-10 day model forecasts, as I'm all about pattern recognition. Live by the model, and die by the model! The pattern says that Lee may form in the Gulf later this week/weekend, and that Katia may be a scare for the east coast. Key word is may, as you should always follow the NHC for official forecasts. What may become Lee is more of a gut call, so we'll see there. The pattern screams for it though in my opinion. With Katia, I would typically say she is going out to sea (~ 9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that form east of 35W longitude recurse harmlessly out to sea). Even though that tropical tip only leaves around a 10% chance for a US landfall, the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection at least tells me there is a threat. Especially, with a typhoon amplifying everything. At this time I think Katia will barely miss, but that will give many along the east coast a scare. It's going be close!

Anyways, the bottom line is these are just my thoughts. I'm wrong all the time, and I never claim to be an expert (In my opinion, there is no such thing in weather forecasting). I was off on Irene's track, even though I did say Morehead City, NC almost 4-5 days out. However, overall I'm not happy with my Irene forecast, because I blew the intensity and originally had south Florida as my most likely landfall spot. One thing about me, I'm not scared to say what I think. If people disagree, that's 100% fine, but at least have the respect to tell me your thoughts first. What I don't like, is people that are quick to criticize, yet never have the guts to say what they think until after the event is over. Like I said, I'm wrong all the time, as the best forecasters may get 66.7% of their forecasts right. Of course those odds go down even more the further out in time you go. I understand and accept that I will be wrong many times, but I'm not scared to say what I think. Even in storm chasing, I have always lived by the moto, "You win some, and you lose most". That's just the nature of meteorology, forecasting, and storm chasing in general.

Beyond Sad/Powerful

2011-08-29T22:31:00.010-05:00

I got back home late last night from Kitty Hawk, NC. I drove nearly 2,100 miles, as Irene was the 13th hurricane I have chased. I'll get to Hurricane Irene later in the week (Will post many pictures/videos), but I want to focus on the 6th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina tonight. Instead of me recounting the things I saw during the chase in Gulfport, MS, I just want everyone to watch one single video that is beyond sad/powerful. It's hard not to get a little emotional watching this video. God bless Hardy Jackson and the rest of the people affected by Hurricane Katrina. I know one thing, I'll never forget this hurricane, as I'll always have a special place in my heart for the Mississippi Gulf Coast!

Hardy Jackson (Second Video after President Bush ~ 1:23)

Also, here is a great Hurricane Katrina tribute video my friend Jesse Vinturella made...

Click Here for that!

Kitty Hawk, NC

2011-08-24T20:50:00.007-05:00

This is going to be short and to the point. I'm leaving around 4am tomorrow to head to Kitty Hawk, NC. Remember, this region of the Outer Banks is elevated, so I'm not worried about surge. We will have to hide the car from the winds, but I feel good about this spot. Of course we will scout this region out hardcore before we decided on an exact spot. Hurricane Irene has the potential to be a catastrophic hurricane for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. PLEASE take all warnings very seriously and watch Hurricane Irene closely. I'll post again tomorrow when we get to North Carolina. Also, follow www.hurricanetrack.com for the latest...

Hurricane Irene Update

2011-08-23T19:08:00.007-05:00

Hurricane Irene is starting to move away from Hispaniola and appears to be strengthening. There was a pressure drop from 976 mb to 969 mb in the last intermediate advisory (3 hours). The winds are still 90 mph, but I expect that to increase soon enough. There is typically a little lag time from a pressure drop and the winds responding. I still expect Hurricane Irene to become a monster hurricane, but maybe not quite as strong as first thought. The potential is there for a lot of deepening, so it's something to watch closely for sure!

The track is a different story. I'm am constantly humbled by weather forecasting, as this is still not an easy forecast as all! The trend continues a little east. The NHC's track takes Irene across the Outer Banks of North Carolina, before smashing into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast US. This is appearing more and more likely. Also, there is still a chance Irene could go out to sea, and miss the US completely. I still plan on going to Morehead City, NC tomorrow afternoon to setup and chase this potential beast. Maybe I'm just stubborn, but I have a feeling Morehead City won't be too far off. I would attempt the Outer Banks if I thought my car would make it. We'll see? I'll try to put out one more update before I leave tomorrow. Obviously, if things do trend more east, I'll be staying home. If you live in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, you really need to watch Irene very closely! This is potentially a very dangerous situation...

Quick Hurricane Irene Update

2011-08-22T18:01:00.007-05:00

You can clearly see the NHC has come east with its track ideas today. By late Saturday/early Sunday this was becoming more and more clear. I originally had Irene making landfall near Miami on Friday, but I came back east to South Carolina yesterday. Right now, it actually looks like it could make landfall in North Carolina around Wilmington, if not a little east of that. While I feel much better about a Florida miss tonight, this track forecast is still not a done deal by any means. There is a big difference whether it hits South Carolina vs. North Carolina for the rest of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. The further east along North Carolina Hurricane Irene hits, the worst the weather conditions for the Mid-Atlantic/ Northeast US. Also, there is still a shot it could miss the US entirely. While I don't personally see that, it's possible for sure.

I'm not going to get too much into strength right now, but Irene has a solid shot at becoming a monster hurricane. The future conditions for Irene look near ideal, but things can/do change. I will say, a major hurricane at landfall is looking very possible if not even probable. Especially, with Irene mostly missing Hispaniola to the north. It's honestly a scary setup. If you know me, you know I'm not about hype at all, but at the same time I feel like I wouldn't be honest if I didn't at least talk about the large potential for intensification. Please make sure you are hurricane ready from Florida to New England. Even if Irene misses, now is the time to be prepared. More updates to come...

* 7PM UPDATE: Hurricane Irene is a category-2! 100 mph (981mb)

TS Irene

2011-08-21T14:26:00.008-05:00

Ok, just when I thought South Florida looked like the spot, things have changed! I noted last night, there was a clear northerly shift with TS Irene. That continued through the night/day, and guidance has shifted east without a doubt. The problem is this, there is a fine line between Miami, FL and Charleston, SC. If you are off by 100 miles in the short term, it could lead to a HUGE error in the long term. It's about 600 miles by car from Miami, FL to Charleston, SC, so an error that large is very possible with the shape of Florida's/Georgia's coast. Due to the shape of Florida/Georgia, a 100 mile miss east of Miami, could lead to a 600 mile miss down the road. For this reason, I feel for the NHC. It's a forecasters/chasers nightmare!

I threw this out on facebook earlier, and I feel like it is something to at least consider. If we have a large/powerful hurricane rolling up the coast, that will release tons of latent heat in the atmosphere, which the models will have trouble seeing. This will pump the ridge some, but to what extent is hard to predict. This could be the deciding factor on where Irene will go in. Bottom line, it's one tough forecast to say the least!

My gut was around Miami since Friday, but it is hard to ignore the north shift. I think without a doubt if Irene misses, it will be to the east. And I have to say, my guy now says South Carolina. The scary thing with Irene is I think it will clip Puerto Rico and miss Hispaniola to the north. "If" that does happen, all I can say is LOOK OUT! This is going to be a major hurricane for someone along the east coast. If you live from the Florida Keys to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, watch this one closely. Even with the shape of the coast and how difficult this track forecast is, we'll know a lot more by Monday! Many more updates to come...

97L

2011-08-19T16:55:00.013-05:00

I posted this last night on facebook, but it still applies today. Will feel better about it in a couple days, but a track/intensity forecast right now is not the smartest option. Like the statement below, it just depends on how fast 97L develops and its interaction with the islands. The faster 97L develops, the more the threat to Florida. The slower it develops, the more the threat to the Gulf of Mexico. Plus, 97L's interaction with the islands is a huge wild card! If I had to put a forecast out right now, my gut instinct leans toward 97L developing quick enough to be a South Florida threat. The pattern leans that way to me, but we'll see? Big update to come soon (Probably Sunday)!

"The longer 97L takes to develop, the more west it will go. How it negotiates the islands is key! In wait and see mode right now..."

Hurricane Camille 42 Years Later

2011-08-17T17:31:00.004-05:00

Here are two blog posts I wrote on the anniversaries of Hurricane Camille. The first link, from the 41st anniversary, touches on the HRD re-analysis which "may" eventually downgrade Camille to a strong Category-4 hurricane at landfall in Mississippi. The second link, from the 40th anniversary, touches on several survivor stories from that horrible night. It also contains a link to a great blog post about Hurricane Camille by Stu Ostro. Enjoy!

Hurricane Camille 41st Anniversary

Hurricane Camille 40th Anniversary

Hurricane Charley Account (~ 6 months later)

2011-08-15T00:58:00.000-05:00

On Friday the 13^th, August 2004, Hurricane Charley was making its way towards the western coast of Florida. Josh Johnson and I were about an hour north of Tampa around 6am that morning when we met up with our good friend John Walker at a hotel. We were all so tired after a long drive through the night, but we have been chasing for years, and drives like this were the norm. Just looking at the radars off the local TV stations in Tampa, I could tell right away that Charley was taking a turn to the right, and I had serious doubts at the time that Tampa was going to take a direct hit. I took a 3-hour nap, and woke up to check out more television coverage and radar presentations. At around 9:30am I knew Hurricane Charley was not going to hit Tampa. The scary thing was, if you watched the local television coverage you would think Tampa was the only spot in western Florida that was in trouble. I made a few phone calls back to my forecasting professor at Mississippi State University, showered, got a quick snack, and started mapping out where we were going to set up.

We got on highway 75 and started to head south. After lots of discussions with our forecasting professor and our own intuitions on the storm, we decided Port Charlotte, Fl was going to take a direct hit. We arrived in Port Charlotte around 1pm or about 3 hours before landfall. What we saw was appalling to say the least. We tried to warn everyone from locals to the police, but nobody would listen to us. Maybe its because were young, but I have to say that I have never been so frustrated in my entire life. Almost nobody was ready for the hurricane at all. Lots of places weren’t even boarded up, and most people were going about their business like it was a normal day. We got a lot of comments like, you don’t know what your talking about, its going to Tampa, your just trying to scare people, or my favorite, were Floridians and we know how to deal with hurricanes. Yes, that may be true if you live in South Florida and went through Hurricane Andrew, but the west coast of Florida hadn’t been hit by a major hurricane in almost 50 years. Nobody had any idea that a monster hurricane was on it way, and its was on a line that would tear right through the citizens of Charlotte county.

At around 2:30pm we got a call that Hurricane Charley was now a major hurricane, category 3, with 125mph winds. We knew at this point that Charley was becoming a very serious situation. Unfortunately, about 30 minutes later, our worst fears came true. We got another phone call; Hurricane Charley was undergoing rapid intensification, and was now a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150mph. Charley went from a strong category 2 hurricane at 965mb, to a strong category 4 hurricane at 941mb in only a couple of hours. The scary thing is we were receiving all this information while gassing up and eating a pizza we just picked up from a local pizza parlor. That’s unbelievable to me, and still angers me to this day. The last thing I said to the police was where are some concrete buildings, because all these buildings you see are going to be gone in about 2 hours. We scouted the area out very well, and found a cement-parking garage that we would use as our fort in this hurricane. Even at the time, with 4 years of chasing experience, nothing could prepare me for the wrath Charley was about to dish out. I mean, I’m not trying to brag or anything, but we have been in a few hurricanes and seen multiple tornadoes, some over a half mile wide about ¼ of a mile away. To be honest, that was NOTHING compared to the force Charley unleashed.

About an hour before landfall, we got in our car and drove around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda trying to take some before pictures, and continuing to warn anybody we saw. The winds were picking up quickly, already tropical storm force at this point, so we headed back to our fort right next to the Bon Secours-St Joseph hospital. At around 4:15pm, the eye of Hurricane Charley made landfall in Port Charlotte. I honestly can’t explain to you what I saw. It was unbelievable how fast the winds were. Sustained near 150mph with higher gusts. Everything and anything in its way was destroyed. When you see bricks flying in the air at over 100mph, you know its bad. I look at it like this, tornadoes are the fingers of God, and hurricanes are the fists of God.

The most amazing part of Charley was the eye. I don’t think people understand what its like in the eye of a category-4 hurricane. First off, the winds go from near 150mph to almost nothing in about a minute. Your ears immediately start to pop, and when you venture outside you see almost total destruction knowing it’s only half over. The scariest thing was, Charley's eye was only 5 nm wide (It was a miracle we got inside that!). That is extremely small, much smaller than the eye of Andrew, and near the same size as the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that annihilated the Florida Keys. The first Category 5 hurricane to strike the US in recorded history, with a pressure of 892mb or 26.35”. On average, the smaller the eye, the tighter the storm, and the stronger the hurricane. After taking a few pictures in the eye, you could see the southern eyewall making its way up the street. I couldn’t believe my eyes. You could see it coming up the street, starting to tear everything up as it did. We ran back to our fort, and preceded to take the second shot from Charley, which in my opinion, was as strong as the first shot we took. I have heard there was a wind gust of 173mph near by, which I definitely believe.

When it was all said and done we got in our car and drove around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. I felt so bad for the people. They really had no warning, and it looked like a bomb hit their county. I have never seen anything like it, and honestly I hope I never see anything like that again. As we drove around, I became madder and madder about the situation and the destruction I was seeing. Unfortunately, a lot of the people that died were killed in mobile homes. Mobile homes are destroyed in 70mph winds, so you can only imagine what they looked like after 150mph winds plus. I kept asking myself, why didn’t the cops warn these people and get them out to at least a stronger structure? The moral of the story to me was that next time I’ll do it myself and not rely on anybody else. All you had to do was get these people, most of which were elderly people, to a much safer cement building.

As bad as it was, it could have been worse. The Captiva and the Sanibel islands helped prevent a catastrophic storm surge. It was only 6 to 7 feet, but without those barrier islands protecting Charlotte County you could have seen a surge closer to 15 feet. I would guess the death toll would have been in the hundreds, even maybe near a thousand if that had happened. After taking a few pictures and trying to see if we could help anyone, we decided to leave and let the military, police, and emergency personal handle the situation. As we left you could see a convoy miles long with military, police, and emergency vehicles coming to try to help. That’s when it hit you that many people most likely died.

*I wrote this about 6 months after Hurricane Charley. Little did I know that I would experience the wrath of Hurricane Katrina about 6 months after I wrote this. Wind damage is bad, but it's nothing compared to the power of water. I found that out first hand on August 29th, 2005. However, Hurricane Charley is by far the best storm chase of my life. The things I saw are beyond amazing! Still to this day, I haven't experienced anything even close to Charley! You can really sense my frustration about people not being warned, but I have realized as I have gotten older, there isn't much you can do sometimes. It's up to an individual to take responsibility for themselves, even though the Charley situation was not a good one! Many mistakes were made, period!

It really pains me that I didn't have a video camera at the time. Product of being a very poor college student. I was down to a few dollars left in my bank account just to even chase Hurricane Charley, and I didn't receive my first TA payment from MSU until September 1st. Also, if I would have known Charley was going to explode to a Cat-4, I would have sold everything I had to get a decent video camera. lol... Oh well, at least I did get some great shots, and I feel very grateful for that! I can only hope I someday experience a hurricane like Charley again. Some people take that the wrong way, but I'm just being honest. I chase hurricanes, I don't make them! This was a once in a lifetime chase, but hopefully I'll get another shot someday. Hurricanes are what I live for!

***ALL PHOTOS ARE COPYRIGHT OF GREG NORDSTROM***

93L is the one to watch!

2011-08-11T19:10:00.005-05:00

This is what I posted on facebook today. I'm focusing on how fast 93L develops (9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35W longitude will recurve harmlessly out to sea) and how the trough ridge pattern will setup. Japan is a big key there. My gut/instincts says it will miss the trough, so you know what that means, west... I'll have a detailed update on Sunday!

"I will say looking at everything in depth, 93L is a legitimate threat. With that said, I'm still going to reserve judgement for a few days. Wouldn't be too smart to drop a 12 day track forecast right now. lol. I'm leaning towards it missing the trough, but I'll feel much better about it by this weekend. I don't care what the models say, I'm focusing on Japan and how fast it develops. Not seeing 92L though..."

Quick Update...

2011-08-08T23:52:00.003-05:00

The tropics are quiet, but don't expect that to last long. By around August 20th or so I expect the real fireworks to start. If I had more time I would explain in detail, but the trough slowly retrograding back west, and looking at the MJO, I think the US better watch out. I had 14 named storms, but again, what's most important by far, is the fact I expect a high impact season. Don't see any reason at all to change that. Still believe Florida/Carolinas are the main areas to watch this season. Of course you shouldn't let your guard down from Texas to Maine, but I have a feeling the majority of the action will be focused in Florida/Carolinas. We'll see?

I'll try to blog some this week, but I'll be at the BMP/OMP workshop here at Mississippi State University. Online students will be coming in from all across the US/World, and I look forward to meeting them face to face for the first time. I always enjoy that. Again, I'll update when I can, but I don't really think there is going to be much to talk about this week as far as direct US threats...

NOAA Hurricane Season Outlook

2011-08-05T23:47:00.003-05:00

Here is the updated NOAA 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Enjoy!

NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update - August 4th

TS Emily is Dead

2011-08-04T15:59:00.012-05:00

Hispaniola - 1, Emily - 0

This was from my blog post this weekend: "There is a danger this could hit Hispanolia and get torn to pieces. That's very possible! "

I'll be the first to admit by Tuesday I thought she would make it, but I guess not. lol. Emily never really got her act together, and Hispaniola finished her off. I would still watch it as it heads through the bahamas, but it's pretty much a done deal for Emily! We'll see?

Latest Seasonal Update

2011-08-03T15:01:00.002-05:00

Here is the latest Atlantic hurricane seasonal update from Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray from Colorado State University. Enjoy!

Seasonal Update - Dr. Klotzbach/Dr. Gray

Thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily's Track

2011-08-02T21:11:00.014-05:00

I'm going to keep this as quick as possible. This is still not an easy forecast, as things can/do change, but I do feel much more confident about it tonight.

I expect Emily to hit Hispaniola weak enough (probably a solid-strong TS), without a well developed core, that it will be able to regain strength fairly quickly in the Bahamas. So with that in mind, I expect Emily to move across the central/eastern part of Hispaniola, and pop out as a weak TS (40mph) or maybe a tropical depression. From there I expect it to gain strength, eventually becoming a hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas. While I think Emily will be close enough to scare everyone, I don't expect it to make landfall. I'll say it stays about 100 miles (give or take 50 miles either way) offshore as it nears both Florida and the Carolinas. This is not to say you shouldn't let your guard down, but I do feel fairly confident with that forecast. Also, this doesn't mean areas along the coast won't see stormy weather. There will almost certainly be high surf and a solid threat for rip currents. While I hope no one is in the water, if you are ever caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the shore until you get out of it. If you swim into the current, you will eventually get exhausted and drown. Something to please keep in mind!

Rip Current Safety

*NOTE: If I'm off by 100 miles, which is nothing in a 4-5 day forecast, that will make a big difference. While I feel fairly confident, I have been wrong many times before, and will be wrong many times in the future. It's forecasting, which is very difficult...

Thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily

2011-08-01T19:59:00.009-05:00

This blog post is much more focused towards tropical cyclone interaction with an island/land like Hispaniola. I will touch on my thoughts/instincts on the forecast for TS Emily, but I still need more time to really nail that down. It's not easy! First with Hispaniola...

Tropical Tip: Strong hurricanes (well defined inner core) that moves across land often do not regain their intensity once back over water, while weaker storms intensify much more rapidly once back over the open water. Why? The land disrupts the inner core of the hurricane causing it to weaken, while the outer bands still over water continue to have healthy convection, which will prevent inflow from getting to the surface of the storm once back over open water. A couple good examples of that are Isadore in 2002 and Gustav in 2008.

So how does this apply to Emily and a landmass like Hispaniola? Well, this tip is especially true with a mountainous island like Hispaniola. It really tears up tropical cyclones. However, if Emily can remain fairly weak (not a defined inner core), then it is much more likely (if it can survive its trip across Hispaniola) to ramp up over the open water. If Emily does have a well defined inner core, it will be destroyed by Hispaniola, and it will be very difficult for it to ramp up again. Now of course this doesn't take into account many environmental factors like dry air and shear, as I'm strictly talking about land interaction and its effect on the core of a tropical cyclone. This all assumes the environment is ripe for intensification. That's important to keep in mind.

So here are three possibilities with Tropical Storm Emily:

1) It ramps up fairly quick, steered more by the trough, gaining enough latitude to just miss or clip Hispaniola to the north/east. This would lead to a strong hurricane in the Bahamas, but I believe in this scenario it would get picked up by the trough, barely missing the US. It would be close though!

2) It doesn't ramp up, steered much less by the trough, going across the island of Hispaniola. "If" it survives, then I would expect a decent ramp up until it gets very close to the Florida coast. A Cat-1/2 hurricane is very possible in this scenario, and I would likely expect a US landfall. However, this is still very tricky. It could hit Florida, or just barely miss, eventually hitting/clipping the Carolinas. That would be a forecasters nightmare!

3) It doesn't ramp up initially, but then starts to try to bomb out before moving across Hispaniola. If an inner core was well established, then I wouldn't expect much once it got back into open water. A similar track to #2 would occur, but I wouldn't fear intensification near as much. Of course this just depends on how strong Emily is when it hit Hispaniola. It would probably have to be a strong 1/weak 2, which is a probably unlikely.

So what do I think? I think scenarios 1 and 2 are most likely at this time. I would like to watch it for a day or so to really feel better about it. Since Emily took its sweet time to develop, a more western solution has become apparent. However, this doesn't guarantee that Emily will strike the US or even survive Hispaniola. There is also a chance it could stay very weak and keep moving west/south of Hispaniola. I think that is unlikely, but not impossible by any means. It's just too tough to put out an official track forecast I feel confident about right now. If it would have developed late Saturday/early Sunday, then I would feel confident by now. Since it didn't, I'll wait another day to be as accurate as possible. I'll post more thoughts tomorrow!

*Remember, I'm talking about a well developed inner core that is associated with strong hurricanes, in an environment that is conducive for intensification.

- Well developed core destroyed, very hard to ramp back up. Takes a lot of time...

- Not a well developed core, it will be disrupted, but it will intensify much more readily back over open water...

91L

2011-08-01T13:17:00.002-05:00

I'll have an update late tonight, but 91L sure has been taking its sweet time. The bottom line is this, the longer 91L takes to develop, the more west it will go. The energy "splitting" apart sure changed everything. Lol! You got to love the tropics!

Asian Trough/Ridge Teleconnection and 91L

2011-07-30T12:34:00.011-05:00

I made this comment on facebook/twitter yesterday morning, which lead to many questions:

"91L is something that needs to be watched closely. A legitimate threat for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. From there the SE US/Florida. The Japan/Asian trough/ridge teleconnection holds several clues into the future of what should be Emily."

So instead of me trying to answer everyone on facebook/twitter, I figured I would just write a blog post about the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection and how it relates to 91L's future. I'm going to try to keep this as short and informative as possible.

First, let's look at 3 model output charts from the JMA (12z July 29th run), valid 24, 72, and 144 hours out. You can clearly see Typhoon Muifa, which is bombing out right now! Well on the way to becoming a super typhoon. Here is the forecasted path:

So what do you see? Remember, this is like putting a puzzle together. First you can see that Typhoon Muifa is moving (tropical cyclones propagate, but anyways) in a northerly direction for the most part. This is caused by interaction with a trough, which you can clearly see on the JMA charts. It's not like this trough is very strong/deep, hence the slow movement to the north. If the trough was strong and dug in deep, it would just pick up Typhoon Muifa, pulling it out to sea.

This is not the case though, as Typhoon Muifa will interact with a weak trough for the next several days, before it lifts out and a ridge builds in over the top. Again, make sure you refer to the JMA charts for guidance. This will eventually "push" Typhoon Muifa towards China. Keep all of this in mind as I'll eventually show you how it relates to 91L and the US.

When using the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection you have to keep a few things in mind. First, Tokoyo, Japan correlates to Cape Hatteras, NC (Pretty close to the same latitude). SE China correlates to the Gulf of Mexico. This trough/ridge pattern takes 6-10 days to materialize. Basically, if a trough enters Japan, it should take 6-10 days to get to east coast of the US. The time of year will give you a better handle on whether it's a 6 day telconnection, or a 10 day teleconnection. This is based on wavelengths and is where experience is HUGE! The atmosphere doesn't have a calendar, so each year is unique. As we get later into the summer months, the wavelengths shorten in general. Right now, I would personally say it's around a 7 day correlation, based off experience. I really don't have any guidelines here, as it is really based off feel and experience.

I know some people may laugh at this type of forecasting, but trust me it works! Think of it this way... Say I give you a rope, and told you to stand across a room. If I yanked on the that rope, you will feel the yank (wave) in a certain time period. The harder I yank the rope, the faster/stronger you will feel it. So, the stronger the trough/ridge (this is especially influenced by typhoons like Muifa, as it will amplify troughs/ridges), the faster/stronger the US should "feel" it. Again, this is where experience of watching trough/ridge patterns over and over again comes into play. It's honestly just pure experience. This teleconnection is NOT going to pick up on smaller feature like a subtle shortwave or a cut off low. It works best when major amplification is involved! Also, I can't tell you specific details on what will happen 6-10 days later, but I can at least tell you if parts of the US "should" be under the influence of a trough/ridge. I try to use this all year round with long range forecasting, but I especially like using this teleconnection with the tropics.

With that all in mind, how does this relate to 91L? Ok, I feel confident that 91L will become Emily soon enough, gaining latitude towards Puerto Rico. I think it will be a solid hurricane at this point as well (maybe a major hurricane?). There is a danger this could hit Hispanolia and get torn to pieces. That's very possible! However, let's assume it just misses Hispanolia to the north, and heads towards the Bahamas. This will be a slow process, as Hurricane Emily should be moving slowly at this point. Now comes the million dollar question, does it hit the US, or does it head out to sea?

I'm not going to lie, as this is very difficult to predict. Typhoon Muifa will amplify this trough, so there is a solid chance it could just pick up Emily and take her out to sea, even though it would still be a close call for the US. The other option, is for the trough to lift out, and a ridge to build in over the top, just like with Typhoon Muifa. This is going to be close, as it is all about timing and "guessing" the correct movement of the trough/ridge pattern through amplification. Actually, guessing is probably the wrong word, as I have many clues on my side, but nailing this down to a 24 hour timeframe is very difficult.

My instincts says the trough will just barely get Hurricane Emily, "pulling" her out to sea. It's going to be so darn close though! Honestly, it is very difficult to predict! The trough could easily miss, as a ridge builds in over the top, "pushing" Emily towards the SE US. I'll need another day or two to really have a good feel for it. I'll post my official track forecast Monday. At least though, you now have an understanding of the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection and how it works. Hopefully, this will help enough so you understand what I'm referring to in future posts about the tropics. There are several more details involved, but I think this is a good start. I hope everyone has a great weekend!

*Sunday update 3:22am: Couldn't sleep, so I decided to look at some data. Things are beginning to hint that the trough may not completely grab what will be Emily. If so, this could be a threat for the Carolinas. I still want to watch it for another day or so before I post my track forecast. Like I said above, it's going to be really close! My instincts still lean towards Emily barely going out. I will say, Joe Bastardi made an excellent point about trough splitting which I should have thought about! Trough splits are something we tend to see a decent amount in the overall pattern we are currently in, so that could be a wild card. Let's see how 91L develops Sunday, and I'll be back on here Monday...

TS Don About To Make Landfall

2011-07-29T16:33:00.003-05:00

My forecast for TS Don worked out very well as it will make landfall between Brownsville & Corpus Christi, TX close to a 50mph tropical storm. There is always luck involved in forecasting, but I'm proud that I stuck to my guns throughout! Expect landfall around 8-9pm tonight.

TS DON: 50 mph (1004 mb), moving wnw at 16 mph

Tropical Storm Don

2011-07-28T08:05:00.002-05:00

I have NO CHANGES to my forecast. I still like a solid tropical storm (50-60mph) between Brownsville, TX and Corpus Christi, TX. While you never know with tropical cyclones, especially small ones like Don, I just don't see it getting to a hurricane. Feel pretty confident about that!

Quick Thoughts on 90L

2011-07-26T22:25:00.014-05:00

This is going to be quick, but I feel like 90L will become our 4th named storm of the season, which would be Don. This is a small system, so fluctuations can occur quickly. However, I feel 90L will become a solid (~ 50-60 mph or so) tropical storm before landfall near Brownsville - Corpus Christi, TX on Friday. There is a chance it could become a hurricane, but I'm sticking with a tropical storm until I see something that says otherwise. It will be moving into more favorable upper level wind conditions (Plus, you'll have an upper low backing away into Mexico), so it does need to be watched closely. Hopefully, this will just be good rain maker for south Texas. Many more updates on 90L to come!

*On a side note: Be very careful on relying on models in these situations. There is not even a closed low, and the resolution of the models is simply not good enough to see it. This is especially true with smaller systems like 90L. The key is to understand the pattern, and the model biases, so you can interpret bad model data is a way that can be helpful as a forecaster. That just takes lots of experience!

A Great 4/27/11 Chase Account

2011-07-25T22:46:00.009-05:00

Here is a great chase account from Stephan Frank on 4/27/11. Stephan and his chase partner Micahel Brewer was actually in the truck were I have a shot of small debris falling near it. Here soon, I'll release the video so you can see it in more detail. It wasn't like anything huge was falling out of the sky, but still, it was raining debris on us for about 5 minutes. The first tornado you see in Stephan's account is the one we both saw near Macon, MS. We (with Michael Carter) continued NE into Alabama, while Stephan & Michael dropped south. They saw another EF-3 tornado in Sumter County, AL. Stephan got some amazing shots (Michael shot some amazing video), so make sure you check out the chase account. 4/27/11 is a day I'll never forget, and someday soon I'll have a much more detailed chase account with many pictures/videos.

4/27/11 - Stephan Frank's Chase Account

Be Hurricane Prepared - 4

2011-07-24T19:44:00.002-05:00

Here is the fourth video from the "Be Hurricane Prepared" video series. This fourth video is on preparing your mobile phone. Enjoy!

Be Hurricane Prepared - Preparing Your Mobile Phone

Hurricane Dora, aka "BUZZSAW"

2011-07-21T12:46:00.004-05:00

Hurricane Dora is a "buzzsaw", with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 929 mb. Only 1 mph away from being a category-5 hurricane. However, Hurricane Dora won't be able to keep it up much longer, as it is heading towards much cooler water. Very beautiful to look at though!

Tropical Storm Cindy

2011-07-20T20:36:00.007-05:00

Tropical Storm Cindy has formed, but it is a weak 40mph TS. Only a minimal threat to fish in the north Atlantic. Nothing to worry about!

In other other news, check out Hurricane Dora. What a BUZZSAW! 135mph - 948mb

Be Hurricane Prepared - 3

2011-07-19T22:47:00.002-05:00

Here is the third video in the "Be Hurricane Prepared" video series. This third video is on hurricane preparedness and insurance. Enjoy!

Be Hurricane Prepared - Hurricane Preparedness and Insurance

1 km High Resolution

2011-07-18T22:49:00.006-05:00

Here is an awesome 1km high resolution satellite image from Tropical Storm Bret near peak intensity this afternoon. It went from trying to form an eye and becoming a hurricane, to falling apart in less than 6 hours. Lol! It just goes to show how fast tropical cyclone intensity can change!

This is how TS Bret looks now. Falling apart fast!

Tropical Storm Bret

2011-07-17T18:58:00.006-05:00

TS Bret has formed! 40mph (1009mb) - moving SSE at 2mph

8pm EST Public Advisory

TD TWO

2011-07-17T16:35:00.011-05:00

TD TWO has formed, which just goes to show how useless weather models can be with small/weak systems like this. It just doesn't have the resolution to see it! TD TWO doesn't appear to be a threat to the US, as it should head out to sea. The NHC has it becoming TS Bret by tonight/early morning. Something to watch closely for sure!

Also, check out this great rapid scan. Amazing!

Typhoon Ma-On

2011-07-16T14:19:00.007-05:00

Typhoon Ma-On has maximum sustained winds of 125mph, moving at the NW at 10mph. This is gong to cause a lot of problems for Japan, which is the last place on earth that needs this. I just hope everyone is ready and prepared!

ECMWF Pressure Anomaly Forecast

2011-07-14T23:58:00.010-05:00

My friend Todd Ferebee posted this today, and I thought it was pretty darn interesting. The darker the blue, the higher the probability of below average pressures. You can clearly see that the ECMWF (European) is forecasting a huge area of below normal pressure anomalies in the heart of the MDR/Atlantic basin during the main peak of the hurricane season. Of course this is just a forecast, but I personally think things are going to really start picking up fast in about 3 weeks (~ August 4th and beyond). I still feel very strong with my seasonal forecast of lower numbers than last year (~13/14 storms) with much higher impact (which won't be tough to beat). Still really like 1950 & 1955 as the best analog years. This would focus the impact more towards Florida/SE US. I would also throw 2008 in the mix as well (Northern Gulf of Mexico). I really hope everyone is prepared, because it is coming. Please don't wait to the last minute!

ECMWF Pressure Anomaly Forecast

*Also, look at the precipitation anomaly forecast as well. Very interesting, which follows the pressure forecast very well. This just gives me more confidence in Euro's forecast!

Be Hurricane Prepared - 2

2011-07-13T20:34:00.002-05:00

Here is the second video in the "Be Hurricane Prepared" video series. This second video is on generator maintenance and safety. Enjoy!

Be Hurricane Prepared - Generator Maintenance and Safety

Be Hurricane Prepared

2011-07-12T22:03:00.004-05:00

Check out the first video of the "Be Hurricane Prepared" video series. This is the series I worked on with Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack.com. More will be added over the coming days. Enjoy!

Be Hurricane Prepared - Knowing the Enemy

Great Gulf Coast Trip!

2011-07-11T23:01:00.006-05:00

Sorry I haven't blogged in a week, but I was out with hurricanetrack.com testing our RC plane for upcoming field work. Everything tuned out great, and I'll leave some video below. It was great to be out in the field with Mark & Paul, and I look forward to upcoming hurricane missions with them. I'll have a full write up on our trip later this week, plus I'll post many pictures from across the Gulf Coast. Going back to the places I rode out Katrina, Ike, and Gustav really brought back a lot of memories. I was very encouraged with what I saw overall. Of course many of these places (especially Bolivar Peninsula) has a long ways to go, but I saw lots of positive things! Even got to see the Ninth Ward for the first time. Sobering, but also encouraging at the same time. It's important to remember these events, so hopefully people will leave next time. The time to get prepared is now!

Test Flight in HD - Gilchrist, TX

Happy 4th of July!

2011-07-04T22:26:00.004-05:00

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July! Can't complain here. Had a nice BBQ with a few good friends, and then went to go see some fireworks. For a small town, I was fairly impressed. Since as long as I can remember, I have always enjoyed the 4th!

In other news, I won't be blogging much over the next week (will still update some on facebook/twitter) because I'll be heading down to the Gulf Coast with Mark Sudduth. We are going to meet up with Paul Bowman to test out the UAV in Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. This is going to be in amazing tool to have during the hurricane season, and it will be exciting to see the plane in action. We will also have a "meet and greet" at the Outback steak house in Clear Lake, TX (Near the Johnson Space Center) on Thursday evening at 8pm. Please come if you can. For a full write on the trip, check out hurricanetrack.com. Mark wrote a much more detailed post on what we will be doing on our trip across the Gulf Coast. Really looking forward to it!

A Couple of TS Arlene Images

2011-07-01T13:48:00.006-05:00

This is from Wednesday night around 8pm CT...

Also, here is a pretty cool visible satellite loop I found on youtube of the development/landfall of Tropical Storm Arlene. To see, click here! There is little doubt in my mind that Arlene would have became a hurricane if it had a few more hours over water. It was really wrapping up nicely just before landfall...

TS Arlene Makes Landfall!

2011-06-30T04:00:00.007-05:00

Yes, I stayed up to watch Tropical Storm Arlene make landfall. I can't help it! My forecast from late Sunday/early Monday worked out well, as Arlene formed, became a strong tropical storm, and moved into Mexico fairly close to Tampico. I would give myself an A- on this one since I was a little off on the landfall point. I'm proud of myself, but trust me, I'll be wrong plenty of times during the year. Tropical forecasting is just way too hard not to make mistakes. That's just weather forecasting in general, so get used to it if you are in this business. The key is to learn from mistakes as you go on, gaining as much experience as possible! If you are hitting 65-70% of your forecasts, then you are an amazing forecaster!

The Feedback Has Begun!

2011-06-29T11:38:00.006-05:00

The NHC now has Arlene becoming a strong 70mph tropical storm at landfall. The feedback has begun, and I wouldn't even be shocked at a category-1 hurricane at this point? She is coming together nicely! Expect landfall early tomorrow morning near Tampico, Mexico.

Phase One Complete!

2011-06-28T19:49:00.009-05:00

Tropical Storm Arlene has now formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. The maximum sustained winds are 40mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Phase one in my Arlene forecast is now complete, as I still expect a strong tropical storm at landfall. See below for my thoughts from late Sunday night.

The first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has formed, so if you are not prepared, take this as a warning. The time is now to get prepared!

EYE OF THE STORM

The Dangers of Chasing

Invest 90L

1/28/1922: "Knickerbocker" Snowstorm

The Day it Snowed in Miami

Clearing The Valdez Snow

Amazing Shots!

Happy New Year!

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The Latest From Tom Lowe

Hurricane Irene Video

The 2011 Hurricane Season in 4.5 Minutes

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Last Rina Update

Hurricane Rina Update

Hurricane Rina

TD #18

NOAA Winter Outlook

The Big Picture Blog

Hurricane Jova Chase Accounts

Amazing Time Lapse

Northern Lights

Incredible Lightning Time Lapse

10 Years of LDCT

Hurricane Jova

Did a Tropical Storm Hit Florida Last Night?

AL DAVIS 1929-2011

Steve Jobs 1955-2011 

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6 Year Ago Today!

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Tornado Art

Must Buy DVD/Blu-Ray

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Tropical Storm Nate, Track, and Strength

Tropical Storm Nate Update

Tropical Storm Nate

Northwest Weather Podcast + TD 14 + 96L

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

Quick TS Lee Update...

Tropical Storm Lee + Katia

Tropical Storm Lee & Hurricane Katia

TD 13 & Katia

Hurricane Irene Video + Hurricane Katia & 93L

93L & Katia

Just My Thoughts...

Beyond Sad/Powerful

Kitty Hawk, NC

Hurricane Irene Update

Quick Hurricane Irene Update

TS Irene

97L

Hurricane Camille 42 Years Later

Hurricane Charley Account (~ 6 months later)

93L is the one to watch!

Quick Update...

NOAA Hurricane Season Outlook

TS Emily is Dead

Latest Seasonal Update

Thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily's Track

Thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily

91L

Asian Trough/Ridge Teleconnection and 91L