Hermine!

Tropical Storm Hermine hit south Texas with a lot more punch than a typical 65mph tropical storm! Brownsville, TX (A good bit north of Hermine's landfall) saw sustained winds of 45mph and gusts to 69mph... The highest official gust was clocked at 73mph in Harlingen, TX... Another great example of a strengthening tropical cyclone at landfall producing/verifying higher wind speeds at the surface! Hermine was also another example of a weak tropical cyclone intensifying before landfall, and being able to keep its strength for some time over land!

TS Hermine made landfall last night in NE Mexico at 8:40pm CDT and was able to maintain tropical storm strengthen until the 7pm CDT tonight (5 miles SW of Brady, TX)... That is almost 24 hours over land, which is almost unheard of! Think about that, it took 22 1/2 hours for TS Hermine's winds to drop from 65pmh to 35mph! 30mph in almost 24 hours? Obviously, it's not impossible, but my friend Rob Hart said it best, TS Hermine would make a great research project! While I love weather history, I'm not quite the tropical weather historian some are, so if this has happened before, please let me know! Personally, over the next few days, I'm going to examine TS Hermine in much more detail...

It just goes to show that the weather doesn't always work the way you would think it would... Tropical cyclones are supposed to weaken fairly rapidly over land right? Well, not in Hermine's case... When Hurricane Katrina made its first landfall in south Florida, it didn't weaken much at all (1omph) as she moved across the Everglades... However, that makes some sense to me considering all the water still available in the Everglades... This is something that I know I'm going to research, and like Rob said, would make a great research project for anyone interested! Thesis anyone???

In my opinion, even though TS Hermine was over land, it did have a few things going for it!

1) It was strengthening before landfall, which allowed development to continue over land for some time...

2) The upper air pattern was very favorable, even over the heart of Texas, which also helped sustain Hermine....

3) The angle Hermine came into land, allowed a nice steady flow of warm/moist air to continue out of the Gulf of Mexico into the NE Quad, many hours after landfall...

4) With as warm as the Gulf/tropics have been, the moisture content over land has been much higher than most years... Maybe I'm wrong about that, but this summer sure has seemed like one of the more humid/moist summers I've ever seen in Mississippi... You can really see that overall this summer with how warm the lows at night have been! I may be stretching some here since a strong cold front for early September did just move through the south, but it was just a thought?

THE WEATHERVEIN - 12...

Here is episode - 12 of THE WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!

Hurricane Earl Chase Recap...

Sorry we didn't record a weathervein episode today, but Devin and I will record one tomorrow without a doubt! We'll have a detailed discussion about the state of the tropics! Speaking of Devin, I wanted to link his chase recap from Hurricane Earl... A very successful first hurricane chase! Also, I'll link The Big Picture blog post on the 5th anniversary of Hurriane Katrina... Enjoy!

Devin's Hurricane Earl Chase Recap (The Northeast Quadrant)

The Big Picture (Remembering Katrina, five years ago)

Low, Medium, High...

There are three areas of interest across the Atlantic basin, not including Earl, which is now long gone! I'm not really going to go into much detail tonight, as I'll most likely be recording another weathervein episode tomorrow!

High: This is the remnants of Gaston, which need to be watched closely! I definitely can see redevelopment, and I have always liked a more westward path/track... This "could" be a threat in the Bahamas/Caribbean, and eventually in the Gulf in the next week or so!

Medium: This is a new threat in the Gulf of Mexico... If you live in northern Mexico/southern Texas you should keep a close eye on this system! It "may" get to a weak tropical storm, but mostly will be a big rain maker for northern Mexico/southern Texas! However, something like this could spin up quick, so don't completely count out a depression/tropical storm before landfall in about 48 hours...

Low: Well, according to the NHC, there is near a 0% chance for development, yet it's still circled as a "low risk"... lol... It's just an easterly wave that may develop down the road... Some of the models are hinting at it, so we'll see?

Behind this, the African wave train is running strong! This season is just getting started in my opinion, as I expect the tropics to stay active through most of October! Look for another weathervein episode tomorrow, as I'll go into a lot more detail about the tropics!

Hurricane Earl Approaches Cape Cod...

Hurricane Earl is now only a weak category-1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph (961mb)... The wind field is spreading out as Hurricane Earl becomes extratropical.... The center of Earl should pass roughly 75-100 miles off the coast of Cape Cod... My good friend Devin Toporek is actually at Chatham, MA right now! I just got off the phone with him and he told me things are starting to pick up! Winds have gusted to around 40mph so far, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if you got a couple gusts to 60mph in Chatham tonight! This is Devin's first hurricane chase, so I wish him only the best of luck tonight! Here is our latest weathervein episode from Wednesday night!

THE WEATHERVEIN - Episode 11...

Earl Weakens!

Hurricane Earl has weakened considerably this afternoon, and is now a 110mph Category-2 Hurricane (948mb)... I really believe the dry air finally started to destroy Earl! I never thought this was the catastrophic hurricane many hyped, but I'll admit it, by last night I was starting to get a little worried... In the end the forecast I put out is going to turn out pretty well... It will be fairly close to 100 miles (little inside) off the coast of Hatteras and probably around 75 miles as it passes Cape Cod... Hatteras especially, and possibly Cape Cod will see some hurricane conditions, mostly in gusts! This was one tough forecast, as again being off by 100 miles 3, 4, 5 days out is NOT a bad track forecast at all in the long range... However, in this case, a 100 miles makes a big difference! Thankfully, the forecast I put out worked fairly well, because again it was really tough!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 11...

Here is episode -11 of THE WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!