New England Trouble? I say YES!

While the Euro is overdone, I lean more towards a strong storm affecting the US coast because of blocking. SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

This will help the trough dig in next week and phase with "Sandy". Obviously still a long ways out, but there is legitimate potential here!



UPDATE (10/23/12 - 10PM):

From the first time I saw this coming together, I thought it was very possible if not likely after seeing how negative the NAO was (see post above). It's like a toll booth, backing up trough after trough and really helping with phasing. I never bought the escape out to sea, even though that's still a possibility. 

Ironically, even when the GFS was out to sea, the GFS ensembles really pointed towards phasing and a strong storm. However, keep in mind that the Euro has notoriously way overdone tropical cyclones at higher latitudes. A sub 940mb storm into NYC? In late October? That's just crazy and way overdone. I'm pretty sure the New England Hurricane of 1938 had a 941mb pressure at landfall (lowest I have ever seen at least). I believe the 1991 "Perfect Storm" got down to 972mb. Obviously, the strength and overall effects depend on more than just pressure (huge pressure gradient with the 1991 storm even with the 972mb pressure), but yesterday the Euro had this storm at 928mb just offshore of NYC. Today, still below 940mb? LOL! 

Of course anything is possible I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt that. It will be a strong formable hybrid storm, but this is not the New England Hurricane of 1938 in my personal opinion. Anything in the 950's/960's is exceptional, especially with a strong high not that far away (HUGE pressure gradient). There is still a lot of time to watch everything come together as any option is still on the table. I feel strongly it will affect the US, but things can and usually do change quickly!

Hurricane Isaac Video - New Orleans

It has been a LONG TIME!  Sorry about that, but life gets busy sometimes.  I did want to post some footage I shot during Hurricane Isaac in downtown New Orleans.  A longer higher quality version will eventually be released.  I need a new computer/video editing program, as it can't handle HD video for whatever reason?  It just keeps shutting down or locking up/freezing.  The video still turned out great for raw untouched video...  Enjoy!

Hurricane Isaac Video - New Orleans:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvRsXIkWkf4


Here is the video info which is posted on youtube:


During the night of August 28th into the early morning hours of August 29th, Hurricane Isaac made landfall on the Southeast Louisiana coast as a category-1 hurricane.  Maximum sustained winds were 80mph with a minimum central pressure of 968mb.  Ironically, on the seven year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, I chased Isaac with three close friends (Rob Jones, Michael Laca, and Devin Toporek) in downtown New Orleans.  Due to funneling of the winds around large buildings (Venturi Effect), winds gusted at times over 100mph.  This is nearly six minutes of raw untouched footage I shot that night.  A longer higher quality version will eventually be released...

HURRICANECHASER.NET

©Copyright Greg Nordstrom 2012

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW!!!

Bob Simpson

The life of Bob Simpson - The Simpson in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale


*There are a couple inaccuracies, but still a great story...

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-06-13/hurricane-simpson/55605488/1

Derecho

Derechos:  Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms

This is a great paper, as I think the criteria of a derecho is often confused...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/papers/Johns_1987.pdf

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While we have already reached two named storms, today marks the official start of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  It's go time in my eyes, as this is by far my favorite season in weather!  Wherever they strike the US, Caribbean, Bahamas, Mexico, etc, I'll be there this season within reason of course.  I have a weird feeling I'll get into a couple landfalls this year, but we'll see?  I already took the worst (northern eyewall) of Tropical Storm Beryl in Amelia Island, FL.  According to Chris Landsea (NHC), TS Beryl was the strongest tropical or subtropical cyclone landfall on record in the U.S. prior to June 1st.  I personally never experienced hurricane conditions, but the winds gusted well into the 60's.  Pretty amazing for May!

Here is the plan for the coming week or two...

1)  Start to edit survivor video I shot this January from the 1935 "Labor Day" Hurricane which devastated parts of the Florida Keys.  The strongest hurricane to ever strike the US in recorded time.  Some of this video is beyond amazing and I feel incredibly lucky to have met these survivors!  Full story soon...

2)  Recap of my Tropical Storm Beryl chase and my trip to Texas with Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack.com.  Worked on the NOAA Sentinel and successfully launched HURR-B.  I will continue to work with Mark this season, as we have lots of great projects planned...

3)  Really start getting into several historical hurricane books I have bought.  I'll provide a list of the books I plan on reading and eventually provide reviews for each book I read this season.  Should be informative and fun!

4)  Start to work on my new website, as I'm going to transition from a blog to a full website.  It will obviously take some work/time (not really sure what I'm doing?  lol), but I'll get it done as soon as possible...

5)  Did I mention this is my favorite season in weather?  Lol!  Like I said, it's GO TIME, as I'm ready to go full force into the tropics!

*Like I stated earlier in May, I'm not going to get into a seasonal forecast this year.  However, for fun, here are my numbers.  I do agree with the general consensus of lower overall numbers and higher impact.  Again, that won't be hard considering the last few years.  Pure statistics tell you that...

- 12 named storms
- 3 landfalling storms  (One already with TS Beryl)
- Watch for "homegrown" activity and rapid feedback before landfall

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Alberto has developed off the South Carolina coast.  While the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1st, Alberto really has no bearing on the upcoming season, as these small low pressure centers are fairly common this time of year.  Getting one to become purely warm cored is not very common, but you see hybrids all the time.  You'll get development off stalled/slowly moving fronts in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.  One thing is for sure, Alberto has been ventilated by the eastward moving trough this morning/early afternoon...

Tropical Storm Alberto should continue to slowly drift to the southwest and will eventually turn back to the north/northeast over the next 48 hours.  Alberto could strengthen a little, but I don't expect any major intensification, even though I'll be the first to say these tiny storms are tricky.  Keep in mind that Alberto could die almost as fast as it formed.  The smallest thing can have a major effect on a tropical cyclone, especially when it's a tiny storm like Albeto.  It's in a marginal environment when looking at the trifecta:  wind shear, dry air, and SST's.  At worst, expect some gusty winds and heavy rain along the SC/NC coastlines before the next trough "grabs" Alberto and takes him out to sea Tuesday/Wednesday...

From CIMSS:  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120519_suomi_npp_viirs_vis_ir_93L_anim.gif

Time To Get Started...

Today was the official start of the EPAC hurricane season, and we already have Tropical Storm Aletta.  Maximum sustained winds are 45mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb.  Aletta is forecasted to stay weak, but it's still something to look at, as we are entering my favorite time of year weather-wise.  June 1st will be here before you know it...

As many of you already know, I'll be working with hurricanetrack.com again this season.  I'm very excited, as we have many cool projects in store this year.  I'm meeting up with Mark Sudduth on Monday to head out on an informative trip to Houston, TX.  This is where we'll test projects like HURR-B and the NOAA Sentinel, which is essential before the season starts.  I'll updated daily throughout the trip and I'll have more posts as we get closer to Monday.  For Mark's write up on the upcoming trip, check out hurricanetrack.com...

I will be blogging a lot more for both my website and hurricanetrack.com throughout the 2012 hurricane season.  I'm actually in the process of updating hurricanechaser.net from a blog to a full storm chase/forecasting/historical weather website.  It will take some time of course, but it's in the works...

On a quick side note regarding the upcoming 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, I'm going to stay away from a detailed seasonal forecast this year.  We all know seasonal forecasts are typically poor at best, so I'm going to keep things simple.  I'll release a short seasonal write up on June 1st...

I will say looking at what I feel are the best analogs for this upcoming season, I agree with the general consensus of much lower overall numbers this year.  At the same time, these analogs hint at more landfalls, which is not going to be tough to beat.  The United States hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.  Hurricane Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall in the US since Ike in 2008.  Why do I bring this up?  Statistically, we are due regardless of what the analogs say.  Also, years like 1992/1935 should always provide a stark reminder that it's about IMPACT and not the overall numbers.  Hard to believe this season (August 24th) is the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew...

Hurricane Season 2012 Trailer - Jesse Vinturella