Northwest Weather Podcast + TD 14 + 96L

Quickly, we have TD#14 and 96L in the Atlantic basin right now. We also have Katia, but she is heading out with the fishes... With TD#14, I'm in agreement with the NHC's track. I believe this will be a threat to the Bahamas and then most likely the East Coast. There is no point in getting into specific details right now, but I do think it is a legitimate threat in my opinion. If I had to put out a general track forecast right now, my instincts says a track fairly similar to Irene. Now please don't go out and say I think this is Irene part two, I just think the track "looks" similar at this time. There is still plenty of time to figure out the details in the coming days, as things can/do change quickly in the tropics. It could EASILY go more west or east? What will be Maria may also have to navigate Hispaniola (The Rock), which is a hurricane killer. So many factors to keep in mind right now!

With 96L, it's a tough forecast! My belief/instinct is 96L will slowly develop as it starts heading/drifting north. How far north? That's still very tough to say, but I would watch this very closely. If 96L does develop (Sure is a LOT of dry around the Gulf of Mexico), it will be called Nate. Anywhere from Mexico to Florida needs to watch this...

In other news, I have linked below a podcast I recorded with Brian MacMillan late last week. Brian is a former student of mine and does a great job with his podcasts. We talked about Hurricane Irene, storm chasing, and many other interesting weather topics. It's called the Northwest Weather Podcast. Enjoy!

Northwest Weather Podcast - Episode 14

1935 Labor Day Hurricane

Below is a post from my old blog I put out over 2 years ago. Today is not the anniversary, but since it is Labor Day, I thought it was appropriate. The strongest hurricane to ever hit the US! In recorded history at least...

Also, here is a great link my good friend Jim Edds sent me on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Click here to check it out!

Today is the 74 year anniversary of the strongest landfalling hurricane in US history! It struck near Long Key, FL at a record pressure of 892mb (Craig Key, FL) on September 2nd 1935. The actual pressure may have been a little lower at landfall, but 892mb (26.35") was the lowest officially recorded. Wind gusts at times were over/around 200 mph, which is just crazy! I'm been to Florida Keys a few times and I always stop at the hurricane monument (Islamorada) on the way down to Key West. I highly recommend everyone to check it out one day! Here is some very interesting articles and personal stories on this historic storm...

Monthly Weather Review Article

From Original Newspaper Article

History of 1935 Labor Day Monument

Quick TS Lee Update...

Came home this afternoon and have a quick observation about Tropical Storm Lee. While there is still a lot of dry air around, the "moisture field" has increased a lot since last night. This should increase the rainfall potential. The flooding threat continues with or without the dry air, but this increase in moisture will unfortunately increase the flooding threat at well. Check out Stu Ostro's page on facebook/twitter, as he has a cool graphic depicting this. In the end, the dry air really saved the northern Gulf Coast from potentially a really bad flood event in my opinion. Yes, there will still be flooding (some bad spots), but without the dry air, I think this event could have been historic! The remnants of Lee needs to be watch closely as it moves into the Appalachians (Flooding threat will continue). Also, keep in mind that the tornado threat continues as well...

Tropical Storm Lee + Katia

Very quick post here... The onslaught of dry air continues, as Tropical Storm Lee is getting destroyed. You can thank the state of Texas and its horrible drought for this. I mean, we all saw earlier in the season when Texas basically ate Tropical Storm Don! In the end this dry air is a blessing to the northern Gulf Coast. In my opinon, it's keeping TS Lee from becoming an extremely bad flooding event. Of course many places have received a lot of rain already, as Lee will likely lead to flooding, but this dry air is keeping it from becoming as bad as it could be for the northern Gulf Coast. I will add, beware the threat for some tornadoes the next couple of days!

Still no changes with Katia! This is going to be close enough to scare people, as I stated on Tuesday. While a few people thought I was crazy at the time, the trend continues west. I still feel like Katia will just miss, but it's going to be fairly close. A great example of why pattern recognition will almost always beat long range model guidance. Katia needs to be watched closely...

Check out the 0z ECMWF. It shows a powerful hurricane just off the North Carolina coast at 168 hours. I personally think this run is going to be fairly close (probably a tad too far west) to what actually happens, as I would watch Katia very closely. It's not going to take much for the US to get impacted to some extent! Image complements of Dr. Ryan Maue, which has an amazing model page by the way! By far the best I've seen, as I use it all the time...

Tropical Storm Lee & Hurricane Katia

First with Tropical Storm Lee. You can clearly see on water vapor how dry air is entraining into this tropical cyclone. This will most likely prevent Lee from becoming a hurricane. Of course when you are dealing with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico I wouldn't rule anything out, but because of this dry air, I'm thinking more of a solid to maybe a strong tropical storm. Regardless, the story with Tropical Storm Lee will be the torrential rains and flooding. With Lee forecasted to move very slow (Agree 100% with the NHC's forecast), only being near New Orleans by the early afternoon on Sunday, this is shaping up to be a big flooding event. I won't go as far as Allison in 2001 and Danny in 1997, however, the potential is there for some major flooding. Just look at the 5-day totals forecasted by the HPC. Almost 2 feet of rain near New Orleans, with well over a foot of rain all across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and the coastal areas of Alabama. Even if Lee somehow becomes a hurricane, the story of this storm will be heavy rainfall and flooding.

With Hurricane Katia, I still have zero change to my forecast. The trend continues west, as I think Katia will be close enough to scare many people along the eastern seaboard. I still think it barely misses, but again, close enough to raise some hairs. I will say Lee could be a factor on how close Katia gets. If the remnants of Lee "hook up" with Katia, then I would watch out near Cape Cod, MA for a possible landfall. Personally, I don't see that at this time, but it's something to watch closely. Don't sleep on it! A few people came at me hard on Tuesday when I said this would come close to the US coast, mainly because the model didn't show it. I really didn't care what the models showed, as you live by the model, you'll die by the model. All I used was pattern recognition and the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection I learned many years ago from Joe Bastardi. It will almost always beat model guidance, especially 7-10 days out. In the end, this will be a great example of that. We'll see what happens, but there is no doubt the trend continues west!

TD 13 & Katia

TD #13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and should become TS Lee soon enough. The story with what should become Lee is going to be heavy rains and flooding. Many of these areas need rain of course, but not over a foot (maybe two?) of rain. That's just bad! I really don't have a problem with the NHC's track, even though please keep in mind this is still a tough forecast. Like the NHC pointed out in their discussion, the center could "move around" or "reform" under deeper convection. Also, what should become Lee will meander around very slowly, as an exact track is tough to say the least. Like always, make sure you focus on the cone, and not on the center line. I expect TD #13 to at least get to a solid/strong tropical storm, but a hurricane is still very possible. However, even if TD #13 does become a hurricane, the overwhelming threat is heavy rain/flooding. That will be the main story with "Lee".

Really quick with Katia. I still expect the trend to continue west, as I think Katia will just miss the US (Well west of Bermuda). I pointed this out on Tuesday (Based mainly on the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection I have learned from Joe Bastardi over the years), so hopefully this will be an example where pattern recognition will almost always beat model guidance, especially when it is 7-10 days out. Also, with Katia weakening a little to a tropical storm, this will only help it even more west in my personal opinion. Again, I still think Katia will miss, but it will be close enough to scare some people along the eastern seaboard. Many more updates to come!

Hurricane Irene Video + Hurricane Katia & 93L

Ok, first with Hurricane Katia. The trend continues more west, which is not a surprise to me at all. I still think it misses the US, well west of Bermuda, but close enough to give a few scares along the east coast. This is why I'm all about pattern recognition and not model guidance, especially 7-10 days out. With 93L, still very tough. I will say it is starting to look more likely that 93L will move enough into the Louisiana that Texas won't have too many problems. However, that's not a lock by any means, just a trend. We'll see, as again, this is still a tough forecast. While I expect 93L to get named and become a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall/flooding. This could really be a big problem, as 93L is not going to move much over the next several days. Many more updates to come...

I also linked below some Hurricane Irene video I shot with my GoPro. Enjoy!

Hurricane Irene - Greg Nordstrom (Kill Devil Hills/Kitty Hawk, NC)