North Carolina Flooding...

I talked about the possible big flooding problems in eastern North Carolina yesterday, but I think this pretty much speaks for itself... WOW!

*UPDATE* According to my calculations, Wilmington, NC has now received approximately 19.25" of rain in 3 days! Insane...

000

FXUS62 KILM 300139

AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

939 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING HISTORIC FLOODING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP PERFECTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EPIC AND HISTORIC FLOODING EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. RAINFALL RECORDS THAT WERE SET DURING 1999`S HURRICANE FLOYD...A ONCE IN 500 YEAR STORM...ARE GOING TO BE THREATENED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A TREMENDOUS STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLAM ONSHORE. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE PILING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTH ALABAMA IS DIRECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL PROJECTIONS OF PW`S IN THE 2.5 INCH RANGE. A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST IS ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT A NEW BAROCLINIC LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT BACK INTO THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS BURGAW... WILMINGTON...BOLIVIA...AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS AT WILMINGTON TO AT LEAST 21-22 INCHES AND MAY ECLIPSE THE 3 AND 4 DAY HURRICANE FLOYD TOTAL THAT IS THE RAINFALL EVENT OF RECORD FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE INTO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOOD ONSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG COULD CREATE A RISK FOR TORNADOES MUCH LIKE ONE WOULD SEE IN A LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...925 MB WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WILL GIVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES.

A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NC COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING ONSHORE. TEMPS COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 76-77 DEGREES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY 3-4 AM...WITH A SCREAMING SOUTHEAST WIND.

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