Well, I really thought Tropical Nate would track more north. With a deep trough to the N/NE, it made the most sense to me. Thankfully for the US, enough of some ridgging built in to the north, which is causing TS Nate to move south/west. I always knew it was a tough forecast, but I would forecast a more northerly motion each and every time with this setup. The ridgging was so small to the north, that I just didn't see it or envision it developing. No excuses though, I was wrong. I will say, I think the fact TS Nate was so small played a big role in this. If it would have be a larger storm, I really don't see how it could have missed the trough? I guess we'll never know though...
With the strength, the dry air was just too much, as I don't see Tropical Storm Nate making it to a hurricane anymore. This was a tough forecast all around, but you live and learn when it comes to forecasting, storm chasing, and weather in general. I always try to learn as much as I can from each forecast, as I also always try my best not to make the same mistake twice. Some may laugh at this, but personally, I learn much more from the forecasts I'm wrong about, then the ones I nail. I will file this in the back of my mind, that's for sure. Still a lot of hurricane season left!
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