A Look Ahead...

"If" tropical development occurs out in the eastern Atlantic, I'm going to show you why I don't buy a right turn up the eastern seaboard in 7-10 days!

If you look at the ECMWF 500mb charts for Asia, I hope you notice a stout ridge extending from southern Japan through SE Asia... That says to me, about 7 days from now, you should expect a stout ridge from the Carolinas extended down into the Gulf of Mexico... Currently there is a short wave trough cutting into the ridge across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic US... Not in the Deep South though! It's brutal, as we are expecting 100 degree weather for at least the next week in Mississippi... There are no signs of a break either across the Deep South, as the ridge will continue to build in slowly, strengthening back towards the Mid-Atlantic US...

The stout ridge across SE Asia is forecasted to continue to remain strong for the next several days... So, that tells me that we'll have a similar setup across the SE US, as a "possible" tropical cyclone heads our way... The 0z GFS has come back left, but I still think it's too far right with its movement across Florida towards Apalachicola Bay! My instincts right now says a more southern track across southern Florida/Florida Straits/Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico... It's tough to get into specifics, but again the ridge should be strong, and I don't expect a right turn up the eastern seaboard at all right now! Things can change, as smaller subtle features can put a wrench in all this! However, the overall trend should be a strong ridge across the SE US, and movement more south and west... Only time will tell, but we first have to get tropical development before this means anything besides hot humid conditions across the South!

Waiting Game...

While the tropics are about to start getting active, I still don't think the main show is coming until the MJO pulse gets deep into octants 1/2... By August 10th I think the Atlantic basin will start to explode... Think of what happens over the next week as the appetizer before the a huge steak dinner... This explosion of tropical activity I expect from Mid-August to Mid-October is not just climatology! While we may not hit the pre-season numbers many (including myself) predicted, I think an above average season is very probable... I would be shocked if we didn't end up with at least 13/14 named storms! Most importantly, I think the impact without a doubt will be above normal... We'll see what happens? I have put my ideas out, supported it with everything I know about the tropics, so if I'm wrong in the end, I'm wrong... One thing is for sure though, I'm not backing down from my thoughts/ideas until it's 100% over with!

*5 US landfalling hurricanes, with at least 2 of those major hurricanes (What's most important!)

* 17-20 named storms (Really don't like giving overall number forecasts too much!)

90L & More!

Well it looks like things are about to get going in the Atlantic basin... The MJO, which is in octant - 3 right now, seems to be moving a little quicker towards octants 1/2... Once that happens, things should really start to get going! Octant - 3 is not horrible, but I've found that octants 1/2 are more favorable for development in the Atlantic basin (Lots of upward motion)... The "CAP" is about to break across the Atlantic basin here soon!

The NHC has two low risks areas circled... Area #1 needs to be watched closely, but 90L is the tropical wave that sparks my interest most! Area #1 should head towards the general vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula, and eventually towards Northern Mexico/Southern Texas... 90L looks to be heading in the general direction of Southern Florida... Some of the models are fairly aggressive with development, especially with 90L... Don't trust the exact details right now, but the models are hinting strongly at development in the next few days! I think it will be a race for Colin, as I really believe both will be named eventually! I'll be all over the tropics, as we continue to watch for development!

MJO Octants...

Here is a segment of what Joe Bastardi posted today on the MJO octants... I figured I would post this for some more guidance on the MJO pulse, as people ask me a lot about this... With the MJO pulse moving into octants 1 & 2 in the next 10 days, I expect the tropics to pick up big time after the first week or so of August... Also, with the models forecasting easterlies in the Caribbean to decrease significantly over the next 10 days as well, this only puts more confidence in the fact that the tropics should really pick by August 7th - 10th... It's hard to put an exact time frame on it, but I think it's fairly safe to say by August 10th (latest), the Atlantic basin should start to explode! Time will tell?

"Octants 8, 1 and 2 are the places where upward motion is strongest in the Atlantic Basin. The farther the MJO line is out away from the circle, the more development is likely. It is a product of the difference of land and water temps in the equatorial areas, and when the Atlantic is warm and the Pacific cool, it tends to focus on our area of the world. In the winter, the same type of situation is associated with troughs over the eastern and central U.S., and enhanced storminess.

The circular area and Octant 4 are neutral for tropical cyclones; the other octants are hostile for development."

Awesome Storm Photography!

I wanted to leave a link for The Big Picture blog post on "Stormy skies"... Some amazing photography here! Enjoy!

The Big Picture "Stormy skies"

Also, the long range models are starting to pick up on some tropical activity in the Atlantic basin! While you can't trust the details, it is at least starting to show what I believe will be an active August, especially by about August 7-10th on! The MJO should swing back deep into octants 1/2 by then! We'll see what happens?

Not about the Numbers!

1992 Season... Only one storm makes a BAD YEAR!!!

This is going to be a short post tonight, but I briefly wanted to hit on my blog post from yesterday... The main point was to show you that a top - 5 year is still very obtainable by the numbers... The statistics say it can happen, and I think a total of 18 named storms is still very possible... So while I'm not going to back down on my possible top - 3 year prediction (17-20 storms), I want everyone to understand that the overall numbers really doesn't matter! A year like 1992 proves that! All it took was one storm (Hurricane Andrew) to make it a bad year, even though there was only 7 storms (1 subtropical) overall! I've said this before and I'll say it again, IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT!!! That's what matters most! On June 2nd I wrote in my blog that I expected 5 US landfalling hurricanes, with at least 2 of those being major hurricanes at landfall... In my eyes, this is the by far the most important 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast I put out! While I hope I'm wrong, the impact will judge the severity of the 2010 season, not the overall numbers! For my blog post on my Forecasted 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Impact, CLICK HERE!

Some Tropical Perspective!

2005 season... (1st all time) (28 named storms) (1 subtropical)

My good friend Justyn Jackson posted this on twitter today, but I wanted to pass it along on my blog as well... It puts some good perspective on this upcoming hurricane season!

In order for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to rank in the top - 5 all time (recorded), there will have to be 16 more tropical cyclones!

The number of tropical cyclones that have occurred after July 24th in the top - 5 most active Atlantic basin hurricane seasons are as follows:

2005 - 21 tropical cyclones after July 24th

1969 - 18 tropical cyclones after July 24th

1933 - 17 tropical cyclones after July 24th

1995 - 16 tropical cyclones after July 24th

1887 - 15 tropical cyclones after July 24th

Thanks to Justyn for this information!

Like Justyn stated on twitter, we are going to need 16 more tropical cyclones to make it to a top - 5 year (recorded)... I have never been on the bandwagon of a 2005 year, but I always thought this would likely be a top - 5 year, if not possibly a top - 3 year! In order to reach a top - 3 season all time (recorded), we are going to need 17 more tropical cyclones... Keep in mind during the 1969 hurricane season, which is 5th all time, Hurricane Camille didn't make landfall until very late in the night on August 17th... Again, just some more perspective! What's far more important is the impact to the US, which I think will be high due to the many factors I laid out over the last few months, especially the Atlantic tripole signature! Time will tell, but the statistics show 2010 can still be a top - 5 season... I expect August and especially September to be a HUGE months in the tropics! The MJO pulse will be back in favorable octants for tropical development after the first week or so of August!

1933 Season... (2nd all time) (21 named storms)

1995 season... (Tied 3rd all time) (19 named storms)

1887... (Tied 3rd all time) (19 named storms)

1969... (5th all time) (18 named storms)