Forecasted 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Impact!

Picture I took of incredible damage on Highway 90 the day of Katrina, Gulfport, MS, August 29th 2005 ~4pm... (Can see the Grand Casino pushed up on Highway 90 in the distance) (What's left of the Copa Casino on your left)

I have had many people ask me, Greg what are your numbers for this 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? I always tell them that I try to stay away from the numbers, because the impact is what's most important! I've stated in past blog posts that I could see as high as a top-3 season, which would put us at 19 named storms... I'm very aggressive with the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but I personally don't think it has 2005 written all over it by the overall numbers... However, I do think the impact could be similar, which is a MUCH bigger statement than saying we are going to have 28 named storms!

The key again is the impact to the US! I have said this repeatedly to my students and on my blog, but even if we had 29 named storms ( 28 in 2005) and none hit land, is that a bad year? I have always said NO! However, you get a year like 1992 where we only had 6 named storms, yet one was Category-5 Andrew which devastated South Florida, is that a bad year? Heck yeah it is! IMPACT, IMPACT, IMPACT!!! That's what is most important, not the overall numbers!

So while I'm not going to give you an exact numbers forecast, even though I think it can be a top-3 season of all time (recorded), I'll give you a much more important forecast! I'm going to try my best to forecast the impact, which I acknowledge is VERY difficult at best... On average, the US is hit by a hurricane five times every three years! Also on average, the US is hit by a major hurricane twice every three years! So lets keep that in mind if that's the "average"... I'm going to keep this as simple as possible, so don't expect a scientific journal out of this! haha...

Obviously, I don't think this year is going to be an average year because of the reasons I stated in my 2010 Hurricane Season thoughts/ideas and my 2010 Hurricane Season Update! The set up this year is about double the average when you look at everything! The key again to me is the Atlantic tripole signature which is "typically" more common during a cold PDO and a warm AMO like we are currently in... However, just look at 1969 & 2004 for years that didn't fall that way... The Atlantic tripole signature is here, and one could argue it is one of the better signatures we have seen in a long time! The way the colder than normal anomalies are packed in the west-central Atlantic screams for the high to be set up closer to the US, funneling tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone our way through an alley or upward motion (warm SST anomalies) focused towards the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the SE Atlantic Coast... Of course this would have to continue throughout the season! The models have been consistently showing this signature continuing throughout the entire season, so I'm going to base my forecast on that trend...

Ok so we "typically" get 1.7 hurricane landfalls a year with .7 of them making landfall as a major hurricane... This to me is about a twice the average year, so I'm going to double those number right away... So now we have 3.4 and 1.4... With the scary look of the Atlantic tripole signature, I think this will focus many more hurricanes our way! I would give us a 50% more chance of landfalling hurricanes compared to a "typical" season... This is not a "typical" season though, as the numbers are pretty much doubled off many/most forecasts! So, I'm going to add 1.7 (50%) to 3.4 and .7 (50%) to 1.4, because I feel the Atlantic tripole signature increases landfalls by an average of about 50%... That gives me 5.1 and 2.1...

Was that the most scientific thing in the world, of course not! However, I think those numbers are going to be close... A twice the average numbers season because of the many reasons talked about in past forecasts, which therefore automatically doubles your chances against the average... Plus again, I'm going add 50% more chance of landfalls to the US because of the Atlantic tripole signature... So there you go, I'm going with at least 5 landfalling hurricanes with 2 of those being major hurricanes at landfall for the US... We'll see how well I do? I honestly hope I'm wrong, but if anything I could see the impact being a little higher than that... Only time will tell...

Before I go I want to leave a link to Dr. Gray's & Dr. Klotzbach's extremely thorough 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update! They both do such a GREAT job with this, and I highly recommend everyone reading if nothing more than an educational experience for yourself! Dr. Gray is the pioneer of these seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts and he is one of the very best at what he does! I recommend everyone checking out the MANY papers written on tropical meteorology by Dr. Gray! His research was/still is key to many of things we understand about hurricane dynamics and forecasting! His research from as far back as the 60's/70's is still used by many today!

Dr. Gray's & Dr. Klotzbach's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update!