Just submitted my final grades, as finals are now over! Going to head out of town fairly soon, so it is time to shut things down with the blog! Of course I'll try to post from time to time, but don't expect a lot of content posts until January! I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a great holiday season! Hopefully you will have some quality time with family/friends, which is what this season is all about! Maybe I'll get lucky with some snow as well? Fingers crossed!!! :-)
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
This system continues to trend slightly west! I'm pretty much sure the snow threat from DC to NYC is over with this storm! There "could" be some snow wrapping around the back of this storm, but even that is looking unlikely for DC to NYC... Sigh! But hey, there will be a few more shots at snow before Christmas, so my hopes are still alive!
Monday, December 6, 2010
Sunday, December 5, 2010
The GFS is still picking up on a coastal storm, but has shifted west... It's still WAY too far out for any details at this point... However, I continue to be very encouraged that the models are picking up on the threat! Like always, the track of the low will be key!
Saturday, December 4, 2010
The charts below (0z GFS) are something to look at/think about! The overall pattern screams for a big storm (-NAO, -AO, hyperactive hurricane season leading to extra rising motion in the tropics at the beginning of the meteorological winter) to strike the east coast, so it makes a lot of sense to me! Of course we are still a long ways out, so it is silly to get into any specifics, but there is a lot of potential with this setup! Somewhere between Dec 11th - Dec 18th, I do expect some snow from DC to NYC... The main question is, will it be one main storm, or a series of storms? That is still very hard to forecast, but I'm leaning towards a big storm at this time! Even then, it will all depend on the track of the low, but the potential is there, and it is something to watch for sure! Many more updates to come!
Friday, December 3, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Here is a satellite loop of the entire 2010 season (via - Rob Hart)... Pretty darn awesome!
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Unfortunately, Yazoo City was hit again the another night with an EF-2 tornado... I had a lot of people ask me the odds of a city getting hit twice during a year... I don't know the exact odds, but it is without a doubt very rare! So I posted something on my facebook wall that I found to be even more rare in my eyes! Especially, considering the fact you are talking about a F-5/F-4 tornado hitting the same location in about 30 minutes! I've read reports that some in the NWS argued that both should be rated F-5! Just incredible to me, as was the entire Super Outbreak!!!
"A lot of people have asked me the odds of a tornado hitting the same city/town twice in one year, but consider this... During the Super Outbreak (April 3-4, 1974), Tanner, AL was devastated by two violent tornadoes about 30 minutes apart! The first tornado was rated F-5, the second was rated F-4... Rescue efforts were underway when the second tornado struck!"
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Well, this season was huge on the numbers, but not on the impact! The US mainland lucked out big time, as I don't know if we'll ever see another season this active by the numbers (19 named storms), without even one land-falling US hurricane! Here is a summary of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, written by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray from CSU... Hey, there is only 182 days until the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season! lol...
Monday, November 29, 2010
Key for tomorrow is the dew points (low-level moisture)... If we start getting mid 60's, then I'll start taking note! RF quadrant should help bust up the clouds during the afternoon... Will have a solid LLJ & SE surface winds! Surface low is too far north though! The questions is, you ready to chase in the Deep South at night? Trust me from experience, make I-20 your cut off point if you do go...
Oh, the problem is, I-20 south has the best shot at mid 60's dew points! Hate to say it, but the best spot (Chasing wise) will probably be in the extreme southern MS Delta!
Sunday, November 28, 2010
I really need to put out my 2010/2011 winter forecast, but honesty, things are SO BUSY right now for me it's going to be tough! I'll try to get one out before I head to the east coast, but here is a comment I left for my good friend Devin Toporek about the upcoming winter:
I know, I need to put it out! I've just been so busy! Building two classes takes a lot of time and effort! I'll try to get one out before I leave for the east coast, but I'm pretty much in line with Bastardi... Winter will start out cold and end warm! (I agree 100% with Bastardi dad's theory of hyper hurricane seasons and quick cold starts to the winter! More upward motion in the tropics, which will help troughs dig in more! I'll try to explain in more detail later, but I have blogged about it before...) With La Nina and a -NAO, you will see some nice Nor' Easters again! Don't know if there will be enough cold for the same amounts of snow, but I think you will still get it once or twice in NY... In DC, I'm thinking more like one big early snow... That's hard to forecast though! With La Nina you'll get some nice troughs digging into the US, but unless the NAO is negative, those troughs won't lock in! Expect more quick shots of cold air, followed by quick warm ups... Especially, in the Deep South! I will say watch out for some winter severe weather outbreaks down here in the South! The setup is a little similar to February 2008 to me...
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Here is a GREAT blog post from Dr. Jeff Masters (wunderground.com) on the upcoming winter... Remember, meteorological winter starts December 1st! Again, this is a great post, so I highly recommend everyone checking it out!
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! I've never been a big fan of the food, but I do enjoy the holiday! Lots of good company and of course football... I would like to thank Doug and Heather Gillham for having me over to their place today! I always enjoy hanging out with them and I love playing with their two daughters... Almost makes me want to get married one day and have kids! But trust me, that day is a LONG TIME away! lol... I know this wasn't a weather post, but I will say things are going to cool off big time here in Starkville! A strong cold front is currently moving through, with highs tomorrow only expected to make it into the mid 40's... A far cry from the high of 75 we saw today! Tomorrow night's low is supposed to be near 27, so it will finally start feeling like late November!
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Here is a link to a post my good friend Devin Toporak (The Northeast Quadrant) wrote on the end of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends November 30th... I agree with what Devin wrote, but I will say that in my opinion the season was a huge bust when it comes to impact... NOAA did well with their pre-season numbers forecast, but the impact forecasts (including mine) were HORRIBLE! I'll always say it's all about the impact, as the overall numbers mean almost nothing to me, but to say that the 2010 season was a complete bust would be inaccurate as well! The US just honestly got lucky! I doubt there will ever be a season again with 19 named storms and zero hurricane landfalls for the US... We (the US) really did get lucky!
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
I think I have decided that I'm going to go after nor' easters/lake effect snow this winter break... I'll be in/near Washington D.C., so I should be in a good location to get both... Of course if there are any coastal storms (Nor' Easters) I won't be too far away from the action, even if I have to drive to Cape Cod, MA (Always wanted to do that anyways)... Also, if there are any big lake effect events, I'll drive up to upstate New York for that as well... I have never been in a big lake effect event, so that is something I would love to experience... I have been in a couple passing lake effect bands that made it to Washington D.C. in mid 90's (once on Christmas day 94'), but I have never experienced the real deal... I've been in my fair share of historic nor' easters in Washington D.C. (93, 96, 02, 10), but even those can't compare to a big lake effect event.... 50 + inch events with 5 + inch snowfall rates at times, and near perfect 30 to 1 snowfall ratios...
Hurricanes will always be my #1, but honestly historic nor' easters/lake effect would probably be my #2 ahead of tornadoes... It's close, but the Superstorm of 1993 really took my love for weather to the next level, so it does make sense... I did want to go to Miami to see my brother and many friends, but I'll most likely get down there during spring break... Like I said, I have never been in a "real" lake effect event, so I really want to experience this while I can... Oswego County, NY sounds great in late December! lol...
Monday, November 22, 2010
I found this today... Here is a blog on all the "behind the scenes" stuff involved in shooting some of the most amazing time lapse photography I have ever seen in my life... I've posted many great time lapses recently by Tom Lowe and timescapes, but here is the link to their blog! I think you will find it very interesting... A lot of work goes into these shots! Enjoy!
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Here is another great post from The Big Picture blog! 47 amazing photos submitted for National Geographic's annual photography contest! You can still submit photos to the contest until November 30th... There are links on The Big Picture if you are interested... Enjoy!
Saturday, November 20, 2010
I had to post a few more amazing time lapses from Tom Lowe! I have Tom's main website linked on last nights blog post... I just can't seem to stop watching these incredible works of art! I know personally this has inspired me to work on time lapse photography in my future storm chases or just random events I decided to shoot! Enjoy!
Friday, November 19, 2010
Here are two more AMAZING time lapse videos from Tom Lowe... I just found out about Tom Lowe's amazing time lapse photography/videography yesterday, and I have really enjoyed checking out his site... The first link is to his direct site!
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
From Jeff Masters (wunderground.com): Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent...
Oh, and NO I don't believe in human induced global warming for the record! Not even close! I'm all about natural cycles! (ie: PDO, AMO, etc...)
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Been finishing up my hurricane forecasting tips powerpoints today, and I came across some interesting stats on the ACE index... Thought I would share some of these stats with everyone... Keep in mind that the ACE index does not include the size of the storm (which I feel would be better), as it only includes maximum wind speed and duration over 6 hour increments for named storms (does not include sub-tropical storms either)... If you want an index that includes size with maximum wind speed and duration, research integrated kinetic energy...
Top-5 Total ACE Atlantic Seasons:
1) 2005: 248 units (28-TS, 15-H, 7-MH)
2) 1950: 243 units (13-TS, 11-H, 8-MH)
3) 1995: 228 units (19-TS, 11-H, 5-MH)
4) 2004: 225 units (15-TS, 9-H, 6-MH)
5) 1961: 205 units (11-TS, 8-H, 7-MH)
*2010: 170 units as of November 16th... (19-TS, 12-H, 5-MH)
*Pacific #1: 1992: 290 units (28-TS, 16-H, 10-MH)
Hurricane Opal (1995): 11.1 units
Hurricane Charley (2004): 10.6 units
Hurricane Ivan (2004): 70.4 units
Hurricane Katrina (2005): 20 units
Hurricane Wilma (2005): 39 units
Hurricane Ike (2008): 39 units
Hurriacane Igor (2010): 42.4 units
Monday, November 15, 2010
I'm currently rewriting weather prediction I & II online (Forecasting I & II), and there is a great website out there that every meteorologist should check out! Whether you are just starting to learn meteorology, or have been a meteorologist for years, comet modules are a great way to learn and keep up to date with the latest in meteorology/forecasting! I should have used this site a lot more than I have over the years, but I'm going to make sure I do at least one comet module a week to keep my skills sharp! The first link takes you to the website! It is free, but you do have to sign up and make an account... The second link takes you to a list of the 406 comet modules (last 6 don't seem to work) available to everyone! Enjoy!
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Short post tonight, as rain is the biggest story for us in the Deep South! Above is the 5-day HPC QPF forecast... Some areas in Alabama could see near 4" of rain, which is much needed! Keep in mind that the rain will fall Monday and Tuesday, as Wednesday through Friday will be cool, but nice for us in the Deep South! Other than that, the NHC still has a low risk area for development (20%) in the Caribbean (Down from Medium), but I honestly don't see anything developing at this time! The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is pretty much done in my eyes! Lots of number, but little impact!
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Thought I would continue with a couple more archived Big Picture blog posts since things are still fairly slow in the weather world right now...
Friday, November 12, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
8 years ago today was the largest November outbreak in recorded US history. I remember the day very well as the High Risk covered a HUGE area. A lot of people may not realize this, but Alabama has more tornadoes in November than any other month of the year. There is a Dixie Alley and the threat is very high for us in the Deep South during the late Fall. If you would like to read more about Dixie Alley I HIGHLY recommend everyone to read a very interesting paper by Alan Gerard (NWS Jackson, MS). Here is the Powerpoint presentation...
Also, here is something else I came across today. A detailed account of the day by Justyn Jackson. I hope he doesn't mind me posting this, but it's very well written and basically hits on all the main points of the day. It was a big chase for LDCT, as we were basically sandwiched between 3 tornadoes that night including a F-3 that hit the University for Women in Columbus, MS. Honestly we got lucky! I have always said that chasing in the Great Plains is very easy compared to chasing in the Deep South. Usually it's HP supercells at night in the pine woods. It's a totally different ball game and if you're not experienced on how to chase in Deep South you can easily die. I have grown up a lot as a storm chaser since that crazy night and I know today I wouldn't have done half the stuff we did that night. You live and learn!
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
I was looking through some archived Big Picture blog posts over the years, and I decided I would post four amazing hurricane related posts! I really like this blog a lot (Probably my favorite of all the blogs I read), as the pictures are always incredible... Pictures really do speak a thousand words! Enjoy!
Monday, November 8, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Just got done watching a great show on the travel channel called, World's Worst Weather... There were so many great storm chasers on the show, and I'm sure it will be replayed in the near future... If you missed out tonight, I highly recommend watching when it is re-aired!
The show really took me back to an insane Friday the 13th in Port Charlotte, FL... That was the most amazing day of my life, as I'll NEVER forget Hurricane Charley for as long as I live! I have posted several pictures I shot during Charley on my facebook/twitter/blog over the years (Including probably the best picture I have ever shot in my life on my blog homepage - see above), but I came across one today that I always just tossed to the side as a "bad shot"... However, after listening to Jim Edds describe the fear he experienced during Charley, I started to look back at this "bad shot" much differently... I was in a more protected area than Jim, but of course I was scared... Funny enough though, I was most scared a few hours before Charley made landfall, as I was sitting in Port Charlotte by about noon that day! One of the better/lucky forecasts I have made with the help of my chase partners Josh Johnson & John Walker... Also, one of my mentors Doug Gillham was a HUGE help as well... Always have to consider friction with these fast moving compact storms!
Anyways, sitting there and getting phone calls from friends saying it's up to 125mph, then 145mph, started to scare us a little! At that point I had only chased Hurricanes Lili & Isabel, so I had no idea what to expect! So now when I look back at this "bad shot" I can see the fear/anticipation/excitement all wrapped into one... Ok, so here is the picture... I shot this while me and Josh/John were driving around Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda, FL, looking for a place to hide! Not the best picture of me, but hey, I think it speaks for itself! lol...
The look of, what did I get myself into? Hurricane Charley - 8/13/04...
©Greg Nordstrom 2004
Saturday, November 6, 2010
I love weather, and while hurricanes are by far my favorite, I still love severe weather and snow a lot... So, since it's a fairly slow night, I wanted to post three 3 unique photos I've shot over the years on my 3 favorite aspects of weather... Each photo is someone else's experience of the event... One from a hurricane, nor' easter, and severe weather... Enjoy!
Abe Cox (Resident of Galveston, TX) looking in shock at the damage on Seawall Blvd... (Galveston, TX)(9/13/08)
Random resident braving the elements during a historic (28" at my location) Washington D.C. Nor' Easter... (Fairfax County, VA)(2/6/10)
Two students wearing Davy Crockett coonskin hats in a very photogenic Great Plains scene... (5/20/08)
©Greg Nordstrom 2008/2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Sometimes I do some dumb stuff with the national forecast contest! I never seem to stick with my gut, as I seem to get talked down way too easily, or just play the game too many times! I'm going to have revisit my strategy, as this is driving me a little crazy! lol... I'm actually doing very well in the contest, but I don't really care about my ranking, as I'm my own biggest critic... I'm more frustrated with the time and energy I put into the contest! I don't think people realize how much time and effort it takes to do well... Yeah, I could put together a forecast in 5 minutes, but sorry, that's not me! I've been doing this for 9 years now, and I seem to put more and more time into it every year... Again, I don't think people realize the amount of time you need to put into this contest to do well... Especially, when you are defending two time national champs! That just adds to it! Not trying to get on a soap box, but the last two days have been VERY frustrating for me, as last minute decisions have cost me about 8 points! :-(
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
I felt like linking The Big Picture blog was very appropriate tonight... An amazing picture blog, that I'll once again recommend to everyone! There are 42 POWERFUL pictures showing the currert situation in Haiti! Over 300,000 dead and still over 1.3 million people homeless, living in makeship tent camps after the devastating earthquake back in January... This is why I have been so worried about Haiti since the forecast track of Tomas looked to be shifting north and east... Thankfully, Tomas is only a tropical storm, even though it is forecasted by the NHC to regain hurricane strength as it goes over the western portions of Haiti... This will put the devastated city of Port-au-Prince in the right front quadrant! This is a very bad developing situation! As much as one to two FEET of rain is "possible", leading to all sorts of flooding/mud slide issues... Plus, even minimal hurricane force winds is not a good thing when so many people are living in tents! Rainfall is what truly scares me though, as Tomas will not be moving very fast!!! Hopefully, Tomas will stay far enough west that this won't be too horrible! I'll be praying for Haiti, and hoping for the best!!!
Also, here are a few pictures from Jim Edds on site in Haiti waiting for Tomas (Click Here)... Make sure you follow Jim on twitter @extremestorms
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Today I turned in my book order for my spring classes, and as always, I'm using a lot of Tim Vasquez books! A former Air Force meteorologist that runs stormtrack.org, Tim has written many great weather forecasting books over the years! He also has developed several great weather forecasting software products! I'll leave the link below, as I highly recommend everyone checking out his site! There are so many great books/products offered, and if you are an aspiring meteorologist or just love learning about weather forecasting, you should check out Tim's site! I have personally read all of his books... Enjoy!
Monday, November 1, 2010
Of course things can change quickly in the tropics, but it is not looking good for Haiti, as Tomas is likely on its way! The NHC has Tomas striking Haiti as a 80 knot (92mph) hurricane! I think this forecast will be close, as I do expect Tomas to regain hurricane strength before landfall... Typically, I wouldn't worry too much about a category-1 hurricane, but Haiti is a different situation... The mountainous terrain is only going to enhance huge rainfall totals! I expect lots of mud slides/flooding... Plus, so many people are still living in tents from the earthquake, so 92mph winds is going to be a big problem if this does materialize! We'll see what happens, and there is still plenty of time for things to change... The best thing to say, is hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Boy was I off with the intensity of Tomas! I really thought it had a good shot at obtaining major hurricane strength, and while it did get to 100mph, it has weakened a lot today! There is a lot more shear/dry air then I expected or any model really showed... Unfortunately, a path towards Haiti is looking more likely! While Tomas is now a 65mph tropical storm, it "should" regain hurricane strength again before striking somewhere near Haiti Thursday/Friday! The rain is what worries me most for Haiti... The mountainous terrain is NOT going to help matters with mud slides and such! Also, because so many people are living in tents after the disastrous earthquake earlier this year, even minimal hurricane conditions will cause big problems! This is a bad situation unfolding, and I hope somehow Tomas can miss! Not trying to wish this on anyone else, but Haiti doesn't need/deserve this!
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Tomas is now a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 90mph (982mb)... Today it went through the windward islands as weak hurricane, causing some moderate to minor damage... The future of Hurricane Tomas is extremely tough to forecast! The model trend has Tomas missing the strong trough next week, almost stalling out and turning more north/east over time... It could still easily phase with the trough, but the models have backed off a lot on that idea! Unfortunately, the trend has been more toward Haiti, which of course is BAD NEWS! NO ONE wants to see that! Again though, even at this point, the long range forecast is difficult at best! It's really anyone's guess as to exactly where Tomas will go? Just being honest with you! It could still go to Jamaica, or it could stall, or it could hit Hispaniola, or it could hit Puerto Rico??? Hopefully, by tomorrow the models/forecasters alike will have a better grasp on Tomas's future track! I will say, I do still expect Tomas to become a major hurricane (or very close) by Monday! Here is the latest model guidance...