Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETEBLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERINGINCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
Friday, August 27, 2010
Hurricane Katrina Video - 1
Hurricane Katrina Video - 2
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Early this morning was the 16 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew... Officially, the 3rd and last Category 5 to hit the US... Considering the fact my parents live in Coral Gables, I have heard many stories about this killer storm... One of the more amazing stories I heard was from a Cuban gentlemen who was living in Homestead at the time... He described what he called a breach in his home which led to catastrophic failure... He told me the laundry room breached, so he quickly got his wife and two kids and rushed them into an interior bathroom... He held onto the door for dear life and even told me a couple of times he thought he wasn't going to be able to hold the door shut any longer, as his entire house was being destroyed by Andrew... By the grace of God he was able to keep that door shut and when it was all over, he walked out with his family to absolutely nothing! The bathroom his family rode out the storm in was the only room left, as the rest of his house was scattered down the block... Plus, keep in mind that this gentlemen is one of the better home builders in South Florida, so his home was up to standards.... He just took the absolute worst Andrew had to offer!
Hurricane Andrew made landfall just south of Miami, near Homestead, Fl at around 5am on August 24th 1992... At the time Andrew was thought to be a strong Category-4 at 145mph... 12 years later a reanalysis project by the HRD concluded that Andrew was a Category-5 at 165mph... Personally, I agree with the reanalysis 100%... To this date Andrew made landfall as the 4th strongest hurricane by pressure in US history (recorded)... A pressure of 922mb (27.23") at landfall is 4th to Katrina at 920mb, Camille at 909mb, and The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892mb... The radar image above is the last image Miami received before the radar was damaged/failed... Officially, the highest recorded surface wind gust was observed at 177mph about one mile from the shore in Perrine, FL... Also, officially the highest recorded storm surge was observed at 16.9 feet on SW 184th street, which was the former location of Burger King's world corporate headquarters... Needless to say the damage was incredible!!!
Hurricane Andrew at the time was the costliest US hurricane in history... Today it ranks second to Hurricane Katrina... When you convert to 2005 dollar amounts Andrew had 55.8 billion dollars in damage where Katrina had 81.2 billion dollars in damage... As bad as Andrew was, it actually could have been a lot worse... If Andrew would have made landfall about 30 miles north, then Miami, Miami beach, and South Beach would have been completely annihilated... It would have been especially worse today, as Miami and South Florida in general has doubled in size since 1992... Even today when I go to visit my parents you can see huge skyscrapers being built right on/near the beach! It really is mind boggling to me, and unfortunately it's a disaster in the making...
The proof of this is what has already happened in the past... In 1926, Miami took a direct hit from a strong Category 4 hurricane (935mb) at 150mph (estimated)... The city was completely destroyed... When converting to 2005 dollar amounts the 1926 Miami hurricane had 157 billion dollars in damage... This would rank it number 1 ahead of Katrina... Actually in 2005 dollars, Katrina would be ranked third behind the Galveston 1900 hurricane, which had 99.4 billion dollars in damage... That's just scary in my opinion! My parents next door neighbor who is in his 90's, has been living in South Florida all his life... He has talked to me a few times about the 1926 hurricane and told me that even where my parents house is located in Coral Gables (~ 5 miles inland), it was under many feet of water during that hurricane... Can you even imagine today what Miami would look like if another 1926 hurricane came? I think damage would be well over 500 billion dollars and the loss of life would be much higher than Katrina (3,000+)...
On a side note, the University of Miami was named after this tragedy, hence the Miami Hurricanes!!! UM was founded in 1925 and opened its doors just days after the hurricane passed... The campus was basically destroyed by the hurricane of 1926... Interestingly, the university survived by harvesting coral from the area to repair the school... Ironically, UM is located in Coral Gables, and it's really interesting to me how all the names line up with historical events! Pretty cool in my opinion...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Danielle will be upgraded to a hurricane shortly, as she is starting to look very nice! Beautiful in my eyes, even though I know many would disagree... The power of these storms just amaze me! Danielle is a "fish storm", which I have been talking about on my blog since last Thursday! I think it will get to a major hurricane, but again it's not a threat to the US! With Danielle developing quickly, it will make its turn right much quicker! You can already see that on satellite imagery... At this point it looks likely that Danielle will curve east of Bermuda! Bottom line, the tropical tip worked out very well... It doesn't work a 100% of the the time, but 90% is pretty darn good... Plus, other factors like the Japan trough/ridge teleconnection helped verify that last 10% in my eyes!
Right now my attention is on a second easterly wave (96L) coming off Africa, which will probably be deemed TD #7 soon enough! I thought this wave "may" have a shot at affecting the US, but it's looking more and more likely that it's a fish storm like Danielle... What will eventually be named Earl, is developing way too fast! This goes back to the tropical tip that worked well with Danielle, 9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35 W longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea! Also, when I look at the Asian trough ridge pattern and the the weakness Danielle will create in the ridge, I'm pretty darn confident that what will be Earl is going to curve out to sea just like Danielle! Just look at the strong trough east of Japan if you have any doubts!
I will say, watch for some homegrown development over the next week to 10 days! The MJO pulse is finally/slowly starting to get into a semi favorable region, and height rises in the NE US over the next week or so says homegrown development is possible! Specifically, watch the Gulf and SE US coast for development! It's something to watch at least!
Sunday, August 22, 2010
"9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35 W longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea!"
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Friday, August 13, 2010
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Monday, August 9, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Saturday, August 7, 2010
21st Annual MSU BMP Workshop 2010
Monday, August 9
8:00 - 9:00 am – Workshop registration in Crosky Auditorium
9:00 – 9:45 am – Dr. Mark Binkley, Director of Academic Outreach and Continuing Education, MSU. “Opening Comments, Faculty and Staff Introductions, Student Introductions”
9:45 – 10:00 am – Doug Gillham and Mary Dean, Academic Coordinator: “Information and Requirements about Upgrading from the BMP Certificate Program to the BS Degree in Geosciences”
10:00 – 10:15 am – Certificate Exam and Graduate program opportunities, Doug Gillham
10:15 - 10:30 am – Break
10:30 – 11:45 pm – Session 1: Review Session #1 (Synoptic Meteorology), Dr. Grady Dixon
11:45 – 12:15 – Session 2: Raw vs. MOS guidance, Doug Gillham,
12:15 – 1:00 pm – LUNCH provided in Crosky Auditorium – Bulldog Deli
1:00 – 2:15 pm – Session 3: Review Session #2 (Satellite and Radar), Michael Carter and David Keeney
2:15 - 3:30 pm – Session 4: “Winter Weather Forecasting Part I – Forecast Soundings to Predict Precipitation Type” Doug Gillham
3:30 – 3:45 pm – Break: Snacks
3:45 – 4:30 – Session 5: Severe Weather Case Study, Renny Vandewege
4:30 – 5:15 – Session 6: “Broadcasting issues, Seals of Approval”, Renny Vandewege,
5:15 – 7:00 – Optional Tape Swap Session (or dinner on your own)
7:00 pm – Dinner on your own
Tuesday, August 10
Breakfast at the hotel, coffee and pastries will be provided at the meeting room
8:30 – 9:30 am – Session 7: “Tropical Weather Forecasting Tips”, Greg Nordstrom
9:30 - 10:30 am – Session 8: Winter Weather Forecasting, Part II – Snow to Liquid Ratios, & other Winter Weather Challenges, Doug Gillham
10:30 – 10:45 – Break
10:45 – 12:00 – Session 9: “Climate Change”, Dr. Charles Wax, State Climatologist
12:00 - 12:45 pm – Lunch in Crosky from Little Dooey’s
12:45 - 1:45 pm – Session 10: Review Session #3 (Thermodynamic Meteorology), Tim Wallace
1:45 – 2:45 pm – Session 11: Case Study, Michael Carter
2:45 – 3:00 pm – Break: Snacks
3:00 – 4:00 pm – Session 12: Review Session #4 (Severe Weather), Greg Nordstrom
4:00 – 5:15 – Session 13 Part a: “Teleconnections”, Part b: Raw model guidance through Bufkit
5:15 pm – Optional Tape Swap or on your own for evening
Wednesday, August 11
8:30 – 9:45 – Session 14: “Numerical Weather Prediction”, Dr. Jamie Dyer
9:45 - 10:00 am – Break
10:00 - 11:00 am – Session 15: "Aggressive Severe Weather Coverage Across All Platforms", James Spann, Meteorologist ABC 33/40, Birmingham, AL.
11:00 - 12:15 pm – Session 16: "Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting & Case Study”, Dr. Jamie Dyer
12:15 – 1:00 pm – Lunch in Crosky
1:00 - 1:15 am – Academic Excellence Awards: All “A” Grades in BMP; also take care of any last minute items before the workshop concludes
1:15 am – 1:30 pm – Workshop Evaluation and Pictures
1:30 – 2:00 pm – Tour of Hilbun Hall, MSU Climate Lab and Broadcast Studio (optional)
End of Workshop – Have a safe trip!!
Friday, August 6, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
CSU Updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Normally I would title this, Tropical Storm Colin GRADES... However, there is only one grade necessary for my forecast... F!!! I'll spare you the details on why my forecast was horrible, but I will say this happens more than you think in the tropics, and forecasting in general... The key is to learn from it! I just think it's funny how all that talk on the long range track forecast never even mattered! Kind of ironic if you think about, as TS Colin is DEAD!