Saturday, August 14, 2010

Quick look at the models!

The models are starting to hint at tropical development in the Atlantic basin later next week! Let's take a brief look at the models...

12z Canadian: Shows what's left of TD#5 trying to make a quick comeback (possibly a TS) before moving into eastern Louisiana Tuesday... At 144 hours it shows a tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic, as the African wave train starts to get going again! Just quickly looked at the 0z Canadian, as it is more aggressive with the redevelopment of TD#5!

12z ECMWF: Shows a tropical cyclone going out to sea at 240 hours... TUTT wins in this scenario!

0z GFS: First, it develops the remnants of TD#5 into most likely a tropical storm, as it moves into SE Louisiana Tuesday! At 192 hours the GFS shows a hurricane moving out to sea... Behind this tropical cyclone it continues to show a lot of development, while the African wave train intensifies!

0z NAM: Shows the remnants of TD#5 developing as well into most likely a tropical storm, while it tracks slightly more south/west into central Louisiana late Tuesday/early Wednesday!

Bottom line...

In the short term, the redevelopment of TD#5 is starting to become a real threat according to the models... In my opinion, it really just depends on how far south the remnants move out into the Gulf of Mexico... The further south it moves, the more likely it is to develop into a tropical cyclone! If it can somehow move south of Louisiana and head towards Texas, then I really think a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane is very possible! However, if it just barely gets back over the Gulf and moves into eastern Louisiana, then I don't see it getting much past a tropical depression/weak tropical storm tops! It is something I'll be watching very closely though! Many more updates to come!

In the long term, take all this model guidance (specific details) with a grain of salt! It's really just showing that tropical activity should start to increase later next week... It makes sense to me, as this activity should coincide with the MJO pulse finally moving into octants 1/2... However, in fairness, the movement of the MJO pulse HAS NOT been working out the way I thought it would (Stuck in no man's land/neutral circle), so we'll see what happens? Even without following the MJO pulse, positive rises in height anomalies towards the NE US in about a week or so, and climatology in general, says the tropics should increase soon! I'll be watching it closely, as only time will tell...


  1. It looks to me as TD5 is reforming right now... what do you think?

    btw I am one of your future students this semester in your Intro to Met class online

  2. It's looking better and better! Should get to a tropical storm before landfall... Look forward to getting to know you in Intro to Met Charles!

  3. a burst of convection has developed right over the center south of Panama City... defiantly has rotation now when recon flies we will see if it is a depression