This is going to be a quick post, but all eyes should be on 94L... It's currently a weak broad area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east of the central Florida coast... The models back 94L to the SW, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico... From there some models are a lot more aggressive than others! The 18z GFDL goes crazy with 94L, eventually developing it into a weak category - 3 hurricane, just before striking the northern Texas coast Friday morning... The 18z HWRF doesn't back 94L as much SW as the GFDL, and never really develops it into much (30 knots) before striking central Louisiana Thursday early afternoon! This just shows why the models are basically worthless at this point!
The key to me is how far SW does 94L back? In my opinion, the more SW 94L backs, the more likely it is to become a stronger storm... Why? Because it would have more open deep warm water to work with across the Gulf of Mexico! Right now it's tough! It's so darn early to really say much, but I do think the more SW 94L backs into the Gulf, the stronger storm it will be in the long range... With a strong ridge in place across the south, I think a more western path is likely! Let's see first how 94L develops before we start talking about the track and intensity! Many more updates to come!