Sunday, October 30, 2011

Presidents Day Snowstorm of 1979

This is probably my favorite "eye-like" feature in any Nor' easter. Also, one of my all time favorite storms to read/study about... Before the storm, the NWS called for 1-3" of snow in/around Washington DC. Instead, almost 2 feet of snow fell! - Presidents Day Snowstorm of 1979 (Feb 18th-19th)

Friday, October 28, 2011

Florida + Snowtober

While Rina is dead and did not take a Wilma like track, look at the IR image above. You can see the blow off/convection once associated with Rina over Florida as I write this post. So in the end, I really don't think my idea of the upper flow "pulling" Rina towards Florida was a bad forecast. Rina just got killed by way too much dry air/shear... Regardless, this tropical moisture will only enhance one heck of an October Nor' easter for the East Coast this weekend. From about Washington D.C/Baltimore to Maine (Also the Appalachians) expect a very impressive snow storm for late October. There will be a nice swath of 6-12" snows from central/eastern PA into central/eastern Maine. Locally, I wouldn't be shocked at snow amounts of 15-18" in several locations. Definitely a storm you should follow this weekend, as it will be fairly darn historic for late October. In my personal opinion, this is only the first of many big Nor' easters this season!

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Last Rina Update

Tropical Storm Rina is getting destroyed by dry air and shear! I thought it would hang on long enough for the upper flow to "grab" Rina pulling it on a Wilma like track. This is not going to happen, as Rina will miss the trough and sit near the Yucatan Peninsula until it's death. This was always very possible, and looks to be a done deal at this point. I'll leave you with the same Matrix quote I posted in the last post below. Just replace Mr. Anderson with Rina! lol

"You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson..."

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina Update

I really think the dry air is beginning to take its toll on Hurricane Rina. The overall convection has shrunk, and I really believe once it starts interacting with land tomorrow (also increased wind shear), the dry air will begin to entrain. Honestly, in my eyes, it is a miracle it hasn't entrained yet. I still expect a track similar to Wilma, as I do think South Florida will experience minimal hurricane (absolute max)/tropical storm (far more likely) conditions this weekend. I'll be the first to say I never saw Rina getting to 110mph (still "may" be able to get a little stronger - major hurricane?), but I think the clock is ticking on the dry air. I feel like I'm watching the Matrix...

"You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson..."

Now I don't think Hurricane Rina will completely die (even though it's very possible) because of the dry air/increased wind shear, but it's going to weaken it substantially without a doubt. We are most likely at/close to the max intensity for Rina. More updates to come...

Monday, October 24, 2011

Hurricane Rina

While I thought Rina could become a hurricane, I'll be the first to say it has strengthened much faster than I originally thought. With dry air all around and strong shear to the north, I thought it would be a much slower process. Of course this just goes to show how hard tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is, as I really believe the incredibly warm ocean waters has to be the main reason for intensification. That and the dry air staying out of the core/less wind shear than originally thought. If you look at the TCHP map I provide, you can really see the warm water Hurricane Rina is moving over, as this is some of the warmest/deepest waters in the entire Atlantic Basin.

So what does the future hold for Hurricane Rina? Well, the NHC now has Rina becoming a major hurricane (115mph), which is much different than the 60mph max intensity they originally forecasted. I still have a hard time seeing that with all the dry air around, but I guess it is possible with the warm/deep waters it is currently in. As it eventually moves north and begins to interact with land/increased wind shear, I really believe dry air will begin to entrain Hurricane Rina. It will eventually start looking like a "cinnamon roll" when the dry air does entrain. Once that happens, it will being to weaken...

As for the track? Man, that's tough, but I personally lean towards something similar to Hurricane Wilma. By the way, today is the 6 year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma's landfall near Cape Romano, FL as a category-3 hurricane (125mph). Obviously, I don't think it will be near as strong, but I guess there is an ok/decent shot South Florida could experience minimal hurricane/strong tropical storm conditions this weekend. I personally think the trough will be stronger than forecasted, as Rina will race towards the NE once it is caught. We have plenty of time to watch Hurricane Rina, as things can/do change quickly in the tropics! The threat to the US has increased without a doubt in the last 24 hours in my opinion. Many more updates to come!

Sunday, October 23, 2011

TD #18

TD #18 has formed in the Western Caribbean and is expected to become tropical storm Rina fairly soon. The environment is not favorable at all for rapid development. I agree 100% with the NHC's top forecast of 60mph (I guess it could make it to a hurricane as intensity forecasting is tough to say the least). The further north it moves, the worst the upper air environment it will encounter. There is just too much dry air/shear in my opinion! Not seeing a big threat to the US at this time...

Thursday, October 20, 2011

NOAA Winter Outlook

Personally, I expect a similar winter/spring to 2010/2011. I'l write a detailed post here soon as to why, but the pattern is similar overall. Also, with the extra rising motion in the tropics (More upward/rising motion in the tropics will lead to troughs digging in more than normal during the early part of winter), I expect an early/cold start to the winter like last year as well. Deep troughs! Here is the NOAA winter outlook:

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The Big Picture Blog

It has been a while since I posted a link to the Big Picture blog, but here are a couple good weather ones I haven't posted yet. This really is a fantastic blog! Enjoy!

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Amazing Time Lapse

Here is an amazing time lapse from Dustin Farrell. Amazing is actually an understatement... Enjoy!

Friday, October 14, 2011

Northern Lights

This is an amazing link to an almost "how-to" guide to Northern Lights photography. There is lots of great tips/suggestions, as I highly recommend this link to everyone. Definitely going to "chase" this in 2012/2013. One of the top weather related (also lake effect snow) goals left on the bucket list that I haven't seen yet!

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Incredible Lightning Time Lapse

Here is one of the best lightning time lapses I have ever seen in my life! Shot by Jeff Gammon off the coast of Jupiter Beach, FL, this really is some incredible shots. For more amazing work by Jeff, check out his website:

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

10 Years of LDCT

A name coined by Tim Wallace (Long Distance Chase Team), LDCT was born 10 years ago today! Our first chase (Myself, Josh Johnson, Justyn Jackson, & Todd Beal) was a 27 1/2 hour straight chase from Starkville, MS to Waco, TX and back. The first of well over a hundred chases (Hurricanes/Tropical Storms, Severe Weather/Tornadoes, & Nor' Easters/Blizzards) over the next 10 years. Time sure flies when you are chasing. Here is to another successful 10 years!

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Hurricane Jova

Hurricane Jova is approaching the Mexican coast (Pacific) with sustained winds of 100mph and a minimum central pressure of 973mb. Expect landfall around 6z tonight...

Monday, October 10, 2011

Did a Tropical Storm Hit Florida Last Night?

Did a tropical storm hit Florida last night? This is the title of a GREAT blog post by meteorologist Stu Ostro from the Weather Channel. I'll link the blog below, as I highly recommend this blog to everyone. It's a very detailed/informative post! Enjoy!

Saturday, October 8, 2011

AL DAVIS 1929-2011

As a lifelong Raiders fan, I want to pay my respects to Al Davis. People can say what they want about Mr. Davis, but the Raiders are Al Davis. He did so much for the NFL, that without him, the AFC may not even exist today. He was the first owner to hire a Hispanic (Tom Flores) & African American head coach (Art Shell). He also was the first owner to hire a women (Amy Trask) as CEO. He was a man way ahead of his time, as he was maybe the greatest football mind the NFL has ever seen. I have been watching the Raiders hardcore since I was 7 years old, and even though I love my Lakers/UCLA Basketball, I would give every championship I have ever seen in my life, for just one more Raiders Super Bowl. JUST WIN BABY!

AFL's Coach of the year in 1963 (Raider went from 1-13 to 10-4 in his first year as coach)
AFL Commissioner in 1966 (Huge figure in the merger of the AFL & NFL)
Inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1992
Has been asked to present 9 players into the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Most in NFL history)
1967 AFL Championship
3 Time Super Bowl Champion: 1976, 1980, 1983 (5 Appearances)
16 Division Titles/21 Playoff Appearances
25 Playoff wins/411 Regular Season Wins
Only owner/CEO, head coach/assistant coach/scout, general manager, and commissioner in NFL history...

*Back to weather on Monday. Again, I typically keep this blog 100% weather, but as silly as this may sound to some, the Raiders have shaped me as a person. God, then family/friends, then weather, then the Raiders!*

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Steve Jobs 1955-2011 

I typically try to keep this blog nearly 100% weather related, but from time to time I think there are good life lessons learned from other peoples lives. With the passing of Steve Jobs, here is one of those lessons, and something to keep in mind that was very well said by my good friend Josh Johnson...

"A little perspective. Steve Jobs' estimated net worth was over $8 billion. If you are reading this in good health, he would have gladly given every dime to have what you have right now. RIP Steve."

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Hurricane Ophelia = BEAST!

What a beast, as Hurricane Ophelia is now a monster category-4 hurricane. 140mph - 940mb. It has moved north of Bermuda, which only makes this more remarkable to me. It just goes to show how hard tropical cyclone intensity forecasting really is, as tropical cyclones this strong, this far north, is pretty darn rare!