Personally, I expect a similar winter/spring to 2010/2011. I'l write a detailed post here soon as to why, but the pattern is similar overall. Also, with the extra rising motion in the tropics (More upward/rising motion in the tropics will lead to troughs digging in more than normal during the early part of winter), I expect an early/cold start to the winter like last year as well. Deep troughs! Here is the NOAA winter outlook:
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