Nice wave coming off Africa!

There is a nice easterly wave coming off Africa, as the NHC has already given it a low chance (20%) for development! Let's break down some of the model guidance, and come up with a best guess forecast at this point in time! I'll go ahead and say this right now, I think this system is eventually going to develop (Likely a hurricane, possibly strong) and head out to sea!

12z Canadian: Shows a very interesting solution! You originally see a trough split, which eventually develops into most likely a tropical cyclone (Could be extratropical)! This cuts a weakness in the ridge, as you see a solid hurricane about to start its turn north at 144 hours! Pretty crazy stuff there!

12z ECMWF: Blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but heads out to sea! It hints at this very same trough split development as well!

0z GFS: Like the ECMWF, blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but once again, the track is out to sea! It also hints at the same type of trough split development as the ECMWF & the CMC (strongest with the trough split development)...

Asian Trough/Ridge Teleconnection: One BIG mistake I made with Colin, is I didn't look far enough east from Japan out in the western Pacific! I promise I won't make that mistake twice! As you can see, there is a strong trough well east of Japan (Remember: Tokyo, Japan correlates to Cape Hatteras, NC), which just helps verify why I see this system heading out to sea! The correlation should still be near 7 days, so again this makes a lot of sense! I know were way out in the long range, but I feel like a northward turn out to sea is likely! Exactly when that northward turn occurs is still up for debate, but I really don't think this system is a threat to the US at this point in time! Things can and do change quickly though, as this is the long range!