Thursday, August 19, 2010

Nice wave coming off Africa!

There is a nice easterly wave coming off Africa, as the NHC has already given it a low chance (20%) for development! Let's break down some of the model guidance, and come up with a best guess forecast at this point in time! I'll go ahead and say this right now, I think this system is eventually going to develop (Likely a hurricane, possibly strong) and head out to sea!

12z Canadian: Shows a very interesting solution! You originally see a trough split, which eventually develops into most likely a tropical cyclone (Could be extratropical)! This cuts a weakness in the ridge, as you see a solid hurricane about to start its turn north at 144 hours! Pretty crazy stuff there!

12z ECMWF: Blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but heads out to sea! It hints at this very same trough split development as well!

0z GFS: Like the ECMWF, blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but once again, the track is out to sea! It also hints at the same type of trough split development as the ECMWF & the CMC (strongest with the trough split development)...

Asian Trough/Ridge Teleconnection: One BIG mistake I made with Colin, is I didn't look far enough east from Japan out in the western Pacific! I promise I won't make that mistake twice! As you can see, there is a strong trough well east of Japan (Remember: Tokyo, Japan correlates to Cape Hatteras, NC), which just helps verify why I see this system heading out to sea! The correlation should still be near 7 days, so again this makes a lot of sense! I know were way out in the long range, but I feel like a northward turn out to sea is likely! Exactly when that northward turn occurs is still up for debate, but I really don't think this system is a threat to the US at this point in time! Things can and do change quickly though, as this is the long range!


  1. we'll get ours - this is just a start!

  2. At first I was kinda disturbed about a US landfall cuz of the NAO being negative, but it looks like it will be near neutral by the time it gets anywhere near the US. It seems, to me, that the best bet for a US landfall would be for it to go slower and allow the ridge to build back across the southeast...hopefully not though...