Monday, August 23, 2010

Hurricane Danielle!

Danielle will be upgraded to a hurricane shortly, as she is starting to look very nice! Beautiful in my eyes, even though I know many would disagree... The power of these storms just amaze me! Danielle is a "fish storm", which I have been talking about on my blog since last Thursday! I think it will get to a major hurricane, but again it's not a threat to the US! With Danielle developing quickly, it will make its turn right much quicker! You can already see that on satellite imagery... At this point it looks likely that Danielle will curve east of Bermuda! Bottom line, the tropical tip worked out very well... It doesn't work a 100% of the the time, but 90% is pretty darn good... Plus, other factors like the Japan trough/ridge teleconnection helped verify that last 10% in my eyes!

Right now my attention is on a second easterly wave (96L) coming off Africa, which will probably be deemed TD #7 soon enough! I thought this wave "may" have a shot at affecting the US, but it's looking more and more likely that it's a fish storm like Danielle... What will eventually be named Earl, is developing way too fast! This goes back to the tropical tip that worked well with Danielle, 9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35 W longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea! Also, when I look at the Asian trough ridge pattern and the the weakness Danielle will create in the ridge, I'm pretty darn confident that what will be Earl is going to curve out to sea just like Danielle! Just look at the strong trough east of Japan if you have any doubts!

I will say, watch for some homegrown development over the next week to 10 days! The MJO pulse is finally/slowly starting to get into a semi favorable region, and height rises in the NE US over the next week or so says homegrown development is possible! Specifically, watch the Gulf and SE US coast for development! It's something to watch at least!

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