Tuesday, August 31, 2010

The Cone of Uncertainty!

Hurricane Earl is still a Category-4 with sustained winds of 135mph... If you look at water vapor imagery, there is a lot of dry air which I really think is starting to affect Earl... I agree with the NHC's intensity forecast, as I don't see Earl getting any stronger than it currently is! The track is still very tricky! A 100 miles will make the difference between hurricane force conditions or tropical storm force conditions in places like Cape Hatteras/Cape Cod... Typically, being off by 100 miles 3 days out is not bad, but in this case, it will make a big difference... I've been saying that Hurricane Earl will stay about 100-200 miles off the coast for a few days now! I still feel like that will be a good forecast, but again it's tough to say whether it will be closer to 100 miles or 200 miles... The latest model trends are a tad bit more east, but you still really can't take too much out of that!

This is not the direct strike many are hyping in my opinion, but this is not to say that you shouldn't take the cone of uncertainty seriously! I always say prepare for the worst, and hope for the best! At the same time, hype is NOT a good thing... All it does is lead to panic, which only makes the situation much worst! If you live inside the cone, make sure you have some preparations ready and consider your hurricane plan just in case! We should know A LOT more tomorrow, as again this is a tough forecast! I really do think 100-200 miles off the coast is going to work out well, but still if you are in the cone, don't wait until it is too late to prepare! More updates tomorrow as Devin and I will hopefully record another weathervein episode...

18z HWRF zoomed in! It's pretty obvious why 100 miles makes a big difference! You can find these images on Ryan Maue (FSU) weather page!

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