This will hopefully be my last quick blog post, as I head back to Mississippi tomorrow! Alex was a great example why you can't trust the
GFS to resolve heat/heat transfer issues 48 hours + from landfall... I got this forecast correct, because I understand model biases... Experience tells me that the
GFS loves to underestimate the strength of the ridge... So even last
Monday (8+ days ago), I never bought into the northern movement... Of course you have to be very careful how you use the model biases, but I'll always go with my experience over what the models say... Especially, when it's still only an invest! I'll have a complete grade on my Alex forecast tomorrow night! I'm very proud of my long range forecast, but we'll see how well I do on my shorter range intensity forecast... I thought it would get to at least a solid Cat-2, and honestly I still believe that! I will say there is more dry air than I initially thought...
Brownsville, TX dogged a bullet, but they will still see 50-60mph wind gusts, heavy rain (5+ inches), and tornadoes! I really thought northern Mexico was the more likely landfall region, but I was still always a little worried it could strike Brownsville, as it was my northern possible landfalling point! Not to wish bad on anyone, but I'm glad hurricane Alex is going to miss the US... Unfortunately, the waves heading towards the oil spill will probably be the worse impact on the US! It will push more oil towards the shores of the northern Gulf coast! :-(
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