Thursday, June 24, 2010

More West!

I still don't buy the trough split, as I think the ridge will hold strong! The great news is 93L has continued to move west today without developing... The more west it heads before development, the more likely it will head over the Yucatan Peninsula... Remember, the stronger the tropical cyclone, the more it will be "steered" by the upper level winds... That makes a lot of sense because stronger tropical cyclones have much higher thunderstorm development to support powerful surface winds... So every hour 93L keeps from developing, the better the chance for more westward movement ("steered" by lower level winds)...

The mid/upper trough, which could lead to trough splitting, won't affect a weaker tropical cyclone near as much as a strong tropical cyclone... Even if what may become Alex is pulled north because of the trough split, it should go over enough of the Yucatan Peninsula that it will get torn apart... That way, even if the worst case scenario of a tropical cyclone heading towards the northern Gulf coast comes true, it shouldn't have enough time to become a major hurricane... Unfortunately, when tropical cyclones are weak and go over land, they can spin back up quickly, but again the interaction with land should be enough to keep it from becoming a major hurricane at landfall... In this scenario I would think more in the Cat-1/Cat-2 range... However, let's see how 93L develops first, as these are just some of my thoughts! Sorry this was quick, but I'm still on the road... Plenty more updates later!

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