Monday, June 21, 2010

Tropical Update...

Joe Bastardi came out with his updated 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast today... 18-21 named storms, 5-6 US hurricane landfalls, with 2-3 being major at landfall... That is the most aggressive hurricane forecast I have ever seen Joe put out, as it is in line with most everyone else... I really like how he focuses on the impact, which is what's most important! Speaking of the tropics and "possible" impact, there is something interesting trying to brew in the Caribbean... 92L is pretty much dead... The shear and islands basically destroyed it... However, we now need to watch another tropical wave/area of interest(93L)...

People are really starting to hype 93L, because of the potential for it to develop and enter the Gulf of Mexico... The current 0z European is showing what looks to be a strong hurricane heading towards the oil zone in the Gulf... Before everyone starts to panic, please keep in mind two things... One, this is over 200 hours out! Two, with an extremely strong ridge in the Deep South, do you really see it breaking down and allowing an alley for this potential tropical cyclone to head towards the northern Gulf coast? I honestly just don't see that right now! I do think there is a good chance it develops into Alex, but I think with the strong ridge it will stay far away from the main oil slick area and head more towards Texas, and possibly even as far south as Mexico... That's just my opinon as of now, but it is without a doubt something to watch...

I see the 0z June 21st run of the European very unlikely with the death ridge in place across the Deep South... Again, I just don't see the ridge breaking down enough to allow for a northern Gulf coast landfall... I think the next two images from the 12z June 20th/0z June 20th runs of the European are far more likely... With the amount of heat piling up in the Caribbean I can definitely see development, but again this is still WAY TOO FAR OUT to start any panic... Let's watch this for a few days and at least get within 5-6 days before we start preaching gloom and doom... So much can change in the tropics (Both good and bad) within 24 hour, yet alone 200 + hours!


  1. GAHHHH that blob is right over the oil spill!

  2. Yeah, let's hope that doesn't happen! I really think the ridge will hold strong though!