Sunday, June 27, 2010
This is going to be very short, but I'm not budging on my track forecast! I still think Brownsville, TX is as far north as Alex will come! I honestly really believe northern Mexico is the more likely landfall region... Could it head more north towards north-central Texas? Of course it's possible, but I have felt since last Monday that the ridge will hold strong, and I don't see anything to change my mind... I will say, while I thought it would be stronger (minimal hurricane) than the 18z HWRF (which I liked the most yesterday), I now think it is very possible that Alex will make it to a solid Cat-2, or even a Cat-3... Just look at the satellite presentation as it enters the Bay of Campeche! Alex made landfall weak enough in Belize, that it will have no problem spinning up quick! Plus the conditions are near perfect for rapid intensification! The only thing that will stop Alex, is the second landfall... This storm is going to be HUGE! The envelope/coverage on Alex is massive! So expect a large powerful hurricane to strike northern Mexico/extreme south Texas sometime on Wednesday!