One of my students (Philip Burt) brought up a great point today about the TNA index that I didn't even really think about... I have researched the TNA index a good bit in the past, but I guess I just forget to look at recently... Shame on me for that! This is another great tool to use!
The TNA (Tropical North Atlantic) index is the monthly SST anomalies measured between 5.5N to 23.5N & 15W to 57.5W... This encompasses a large portion of the MDR (Main Development Region), which runs from 10N to 20N in the Atlantic basin... NOAA has been keeping track of the TNA index since 1948... Historically, positive numbers (representing warmer than normal SST anomalies) leads to enhance activity/development in the tropics, which of course makes a lot of sense! What's scary is this year's TNA index is OFF the charts! It's way ahead of 2005, and has the highest monthly numbers ever recorded (1948)... Combine this with all the other factors I have been talking about in the my earlier hurricane forecasts, look out!
Thankfully, the number has come down some this May due to a stronger Azores High, which led to stronger easterlies, cooling off your water some... However, while it's good that it went down some in May, it's still the second highest number (1.28) ever recorded behind last April number (1.40)! Also, it's still .27 ahead of 2005 during the same monthly period! Just something extra to think about... I'm going to leave links to info on the TNA index/data, and I'm also going to leave an EXCELLENT blog post on the TNA index and the 2010 hurricane season in general... The blog post was written by Allan Hoffman who again does a GREAT job!
TNA Index
TNA Data
Allan Hoffman TNA Index/2010 Hurricane Season Forecast
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