South Texas/Northern Mexico...

I'm sticking to my guns no matter what! I have been saying since Monday that I liked a Southern Texas/Northern Mexico landfall... Of course it's so darn tough until a tropical cyclone forms, but I never really bought into this trough split idea... Of course it's possible, but again I just don't see it... The ridge is strong across the Deep South, and the GFS just can't handle heat/heat transfer... It consistently underestimates the strength of the ridge all year long... This error is really bad in the summer when you have all this extra heat build up in the tropics... I will always go with what I was taught first before I follow a model... Instincts/experience plays a big role in this, plus all models really don't have a clue until an invest at least gets to a weak tropical cyclone! I now see the NHC with its second advisory has shifted their track much further south and west... I agree 100%...

In the short term there are a couple interesting things to consider with soon to be Alex... If Alex is able to rapidly intensify before landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula, then that's not good news for Mexico (Yucatan), but may be great news for the United States! Why? Hurricanes that have well defined inner cores that moves across land, often do not regain their intensity once back over water, while weaker storms intensify much more rapidly/readily once back over open water... The land disrupts the inner core of the hurricane causing it to weaken, while the outer bands over water continue to have healthy convection, which will prevent inflow from getting to the center of the storm once back over water... This is especially true with major hurricanes! Great examples of this are Isadore and Gustav...

Now of course I don't see Alex getting to a major hurricane at landfall in the Yucatan (Probably won't even be a hurricane), but the stronger Alex gets (more defined the inner core), the better the news for South Texas/Northern Mexico in my opinion... If Alex stays fairly weak, then unfortunately I do see a much better chance for rapid intensification after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula... There are many other factors involved in rapid intensification, but I thought I would share this tip that has worked very well for me over the years... The good news, which I talked about in last nights blog post, is with 93L taking its time to most likely develop into Alex, pretty much sealed its fate west! Of course I don't want to see anyone get hit, but the northern Gulf coast doesn't need a tropical cyclone with the oil spill ongoing... It will be interesting to see what happens, but I have liked a most westward track since Monday and I'm not going to change anything! I'll have many more updates to come!