92L...

92L has continued to look good all day, even though it just can't seem to keep persistent convection on the southern side of the broad low... I do still expect it to be a tropical depression by tomorrow, as it continues to get better organized in favorable conditions... To see development in this part of the Atlantic this early in the season is very rare! I have been reading around the internet a lot today, and the last time there was a named storm east of the Lesser Antilles in June was back in 1979... Before that was back in 1933! Obviously storms weren't named in 1933, but that storm did become a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on June 27th!

This just shows how rare this is! If 92L becomes Alex, it will become only the 3rd tropical storm/hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles in over 75 years during the month of June! With the African wave train getting going this early, I really think this only goes to show the potential for a hyper season! I'm honestly not surprised at all, as almost everything has been lining up for an incredible season since my first 2010 Atlantic hurricane season thoughts/idea on May 5th! Time will tell, but the signs are already there!

The models don't seem to have the best handle on 92L... Of course that makes a lot of sense! As 92L develops I feel the models will lock on a little better, even though I wonder if the models will struggle more than normal due to the rarity of the event! You don't see tropical cyclones this early in the east-central Atlantic! The 18z GFS/GFDL pretty much kills 92L... Since the GFS shows this, I'm not surprised at all that the GFDL is showing this as well, since the GFDL is initialized off GFS model data... 18z HWRF shows 92L becoming Alex fairly quick and then dying almost as fast in about 36-48 hours! The 12z Canadian develops 92L most likely into Alex and keeps it together as it heads towards the Lesser Antilles... By far the most aggressive model! The 12z European keeps it together for a few days before starting to kill it fast around 120 hours...

I have thought from the beginning that an upper trough will interact with 92L and eventually tear it apart... It still looks like that will happen, but it may happen a little slower than I first thought since it's so far south... By Wednesday 92L, which may be Alex, should encounter wind shear greater than 30 knots! No matter what happens, just talking about development in the east-central Atlantic this early in the season is amazing, and a sign of things to come IMO!!!

Here is some more updated track/intensity guidance from CSU (0z)...