Tuesday, June 15, 2010

African Wave Train related to the ACE Index!

Joe Bastardi made an excellent point about one of the reasons why the African wave train has gotten going so early this season... Obviously I'm going to paraphrase, but I think you'll get the point...

When you enter a SST setup like he have now (cold PDO/warm AMO), some interesting things start happening, which is directly related to the upcoming season... Remember, in weather the atmosphere always wants to reach a balance.... Just look at the European hurricane forecast, which understands this balance trying to be reached by the atmosphere... They are calling for 23 named storms, but what's really interesting to me is the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index forecast! They are calling for the ACE to rise to 125% globally... However, only 70% of normal across the entire Pacific (both basins), but an insane 260% of normal in the Atlantic!!! This makes perfect sense though, because when you have a HUGE area of water (Pacific) that typically accounts for the large majority (2/3rds) on tropical cyclone activity/energy, and you lose this activity/energy because of factors like the cold PDO, then where do you think the atmosphere is going to make up for this? You would be correct if you said the Atlantic basin! With that in mind, here is something else to think about!

When you get such warm waters in the Indian ocean/Arabian sea, something interesting starts to occur... The Asian continent heats up rapidly, which pulls the monsoonal circulation northward into the Asian subcontinent... So now you don't have the convergence in the Indian ocean/Arabian sea to get rid of that heat.... Keep in mind that tropical cyclones want to take this heat from the tropics to the poles... What happens is this, because of the northward move of the monsoonal circulation, instead of these waves trying to develop in the Indian ocean/Arabian sea, they come through Africa and develop more rapidly/frequently in the Atlantic basin... You have MUCH more energy build up, which again the atmosphere wants to get rid of! So that's one of the main reasons why we are going to focus so much more activity in the eastern Atlantic (TNA) zone this year! It is also why we are getting the African wave train going so early in the season!

This early African wave train is NOT a good sign, as the atmosphere is showing you what it wants to do when you see these African waves going up so fast/early in the season! Plus, you add the Atlantic ocean tripole signature, and LOOK OUT! You center the sinking motion in the north Atlantic, while you center the upward motion in the Atlantic basin through the MDR towards the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the southeast eastern seaboard! It's one thing to have so much energy focused in the Atlantic, it's another to see it have a direct path towards the US... I have always said it's all about the IMPACT, and trust me the impact is what scares me most this year! The path of upward motion towards the US, reminds me of a gigantic hole in the line of scrimmage with a Heisman trophy running back breaking free towards the goal line... Unfortunately, the goal line looks to be the US (Gulf, Florida, SE) this year!!!

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