2010 Hurricane Season Update...

Here is a link to my 2010 hurricane season thoughts/ideas from May 5th 2010... Most of everything I outlined there is coming together well... If anything, my biggest complaint with my original forecast is I wasn't aggressive enough, as things are coming together faster than I thought! Looking at sea surface temperature anomalies, I would say/argue we are already starting to enter a La Nina phase which is occurring about a month faster than I forecasted... The 90 day SOI average of + 4.15 shows this as well... I think we will enter a moderate La Nina in the next month or two, which should last into 2011... Nino 3.4 SST anomalies back this up... Also, Nino 1+2 (weaker), 3, and 4 back this up as well... They all show a solid La Nina through 2011...

Now while everyone wants to talk about how La Nina is the key, I'm going to have say it's only a piece of the puzzle (A very important piece though)... Joe Bastardi, who opened my eyes to the Atlantic tripole signature stuff, made some excellent points about La Nina the other day... I'm going to paraphrase, but hopefully I'll get his point across...

Basically he feels that La Nina is not the driving force for this upcoming hurricane season... It's the Atlantic tripole signature, which focuses the upward motion in the MDR... He believes that saying La Nina is the cause of this potentially active hurricane season is only broad-brushing the argument... He backs this up with 2005, not a La Nina year, where we actually had a slight warm signal by the peak of the season... However, it was the most active on record... He also points out 2004/1969 which were very active years yet they were weak El Nino seasons... What's the link to those 3 years, each one of them had a Atlantic tripole signature for a lot of the season... Now again I'm not an expert like Bastardi on this stuff (learning everyday), but it sure the heck makes sense to me personally!

Of course I feel La Nina is an important factor in this years potentially active hurricane season, but at the same time, to just say we have a La Nina year so it will be active is not accurately representing the big picture... There are many other factors involved and it's my goal as a meteorologist to explore/understand as many of these factors as possible.. So I'm going to agree 100% with Bastardi on this! Sometimes I don't always agree with him, but on this point I think he's dead on!

So that's the key to me this year... As long as we keep that tripole signature than look out folks! The CFS is showing this tripole signature continuing throughout the season so not only will the focus of the upward motion be in the MDR, the colder SST anomalies in the west-central Atlantic will "funnel" tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone right at the US... Add in a moderate La Nina and you are looking at some potentially serious problems for the US IMO... Check out my early forecast and my "Lombardi" reference for more information on that...

I always try to stay away from exact numbers, but I will say this has the potential to be a HUGE year... I could see a top-3 season of all time by the numbers! To get into the top three we would have to hit 19 named storms (28 in 2005/21 in 1933[No Satellites!]), which I think is very possible... Be careful with the numbers though, because what's really important is the impact! In 1992 we only had 6 named storms, yet one was named Andrew and we all know how that turned out! It only takes one to make it a bad season, so please keep that in mind... 19 named storms and they all go out to sea, who cares! 6 named storms and one is a Cat-5 at landfall, everyone cares! The Atlantic tripole & the combination of many other factors outlined in my original forecast, tells me this is going to be not only an active year, but a high impact year which is most important! If you live along the Gulf/Atlantic coast, now is the time to get ready as the hurricane season officially starts in about 3 hours!

Me in Hurricane Dennis, 7/10/05, Pensacola, FL...