Read This!!!

This is probably the most strongly worded Day-3 I have ever read in my life! All I can say is WOW!!!

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING. TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...

MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT RISK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND. THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.

OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..RACY.. 05/08/2010