Sunday, May 9, 2010

Morning precip gets out, and Monday is BIG!!!

I'm very tired after a long/fun day, but I still want to touch on Monday... The SPC Day-3 convective outlook had some of the strongest wording I have ever seen for a Day-3... The one thing that could mess up Monday is the morning convection... As long as it gets out of south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma, then it will be a big day! If you think about it, the morning convection should put down plenty of boundaries! Again, this is all dependent on the precipitation getting out! Without enough sunshine you won't have the instability available to sustain dangerous tornadic supercells... Also, the CAP will become an issue without enough sunshine!

I personally do think the convection will get out! Combine that with plenty of boundaries, nice dynamics, incredible thermodynamics, and I really think Monday will be a big day! I never really like to get into thermodynamic parameters this far out, but it does look very explosive! I'll get into way more detail tomorrow... Remember though, Monday is not a sure thing, and while I do think the morning convection gets out, it's still something to watch very closely! I think we will have a much better handle on everything by tomorrow!

I'll have a full recap on today's events tomorrow as well... Cowboys Stadium was AMAZING!!! By far the best stadium I have ever been inside or seen from outside... I'll have a lot of pictures to include as well... Best $17.50 I have spent in a long time! Right now it's sleep time though!

*Update (12:55am): The SPC just went moderate 45% hatched on Monday for south-central/south-eastern Kansas and parts of north-central Oklahoma... I have a strong feeling high risk 30% tornado is coming on the first Day-1 convective outlook tomorrow night! They feel confident that the morning convection gets out, and Monday is a big/huge day! I do agree 100%, but again the morning convection is still something to watch closely IMO... I just don't want hype things too much since we are still almost 48 hours out... I promise I'll have a very detailed post tomorrow on Monday's chasing and beyond... Plus I'll have a recap on our trip to Cowboys Stadium...

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