Like I suspected the GFS is now starting to slow everything down... Again this makes perfect sense with a positive SOI and a negative NAO... There is so much blocking that the systems are slowing down just like your car would as you head towards a toll booth or a traffic accident... It now looks like there will be good chase days from at least Monday through Wednesday... Add in Thursday and maybe Friday if you believe the European, which I personally like a lot more than the GFS right now...
This winter the typical too quick bias of the GFS was able to overcome this shortfall because of an extremely strong negative SOI... Basically it added lots of extra momentum to the southern stream, naturally speeding systems up and helping the GFS look good for once! Now that El Nino is dead (maybe still on life-support), and we have a strong positive SOI combined with a negative NAO, we are back to the same issues with the GFS... So in my opinion, not only will next weeks severe weather get started on Monday instead of Sunday, it also should hang around to at least Thursday if not even Friday... Why? Because again the blocking is not going to let these systems progress... And the GFS fast bias is really going to be exposed big time with this event... Even though it already has over the last month... This is not to say there will zero severe weather Sunday, but the main show shouldn't start until Monday... Tuesday/Wednesday looks fairly big right now!
On April 6th the 90 day SOI average was -11.17... Today the 90 day SOI average is -2.00... That's just incredible how fast this pattern is turning around! El Nino is long gone and it's now time to get prepared for La Nina to take over in a quick and strong way... This is not only going to play into the severe weather season, but it will especially play into the upcoming hurricane season! If we continue to see blocking with a negative NAO combined with very warm water and a lack of wind shear/dry air, then look out! Not only will we see more overall development, we will also see a lot more landfalling tropical cyclones along the US coast due to the ridge being displaced further west because of blocking... Honestly, it's not looking too good for people along the US coast, especially if you live along Florida and the Gulf of Mexico IMO...
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