Having doubts about Monday's chase!

I still think Monday has a LOT of potential but three things are starting to really worry me!

1) I don't care what any model says, water vapor shows this trough moving quicker than anyone or any model thought... If it's too progressive than we won't have much sunshine! Even if it's only 3 or 4 hours faster that will hurt a lot!

2) Morning convection is still a major concern! Especially with a more progressive trough... If it hangs around and this system is progressive (looks likely at this point) then how are we going to get enough sun/instability tomorrow? Yes there will be instability, but not enough to live up to the hype around this event!

3) Right now there isn't much convection, but honestly that scares me a little... The CAP must be pretty darn strong! Tim Wallace just pointed out to me how badly the 18z GFS is analyzing the CAP compared to the 0z balloon Justyn Jackson launched today at KAMA... The trend is quicker and more south where the CAP is forecasted to be much stronger! Without much sunshine I'm not seeing how the CAP is going to break without the forcing... If that happens everything will go up all at once! Justyn just pulled up a 0z NAM Bufkit file for Ponca City, OK and the high is forecasted to be 70 with a stratus deck all day... Not much different in OKC with stratus there most of the day until it tries to mix out around 6-7pm... However, you have warmer temps and much more instability... The CAP would worry me though with cloud cover... The trend is south/fast without a doubt in my mind right now!

Bottom line, I still think Monday has a LOT of potential but there are some obvious doubts... Ignoring these negative factors is foolish! Tomorrow is NOT a sure thing!!! My guts says it will still be a big day, but further south... Key word there is south! I do think there will be tornadoes tomorrow, but I'm not as sure about an epic outbreak like many are calling for... Could it still happen, of course! However, those three negative factors do worry me about a potential bust! I don't think it will be a complete bust, but at the same time I don't see how the SPC can go High Risk with these negative factors... I would personally go Moderate 15% hatched tornado... That way you can easily go up or down if warranted... We are now going to head towards OKC as of this minute around 8am tomorrow morning... More updates to come!