Tuesday, November 29, 2011

No Snow...

Even when the first talk of snow started on Friday, I felt very confident that Starkville would see no accumulations. And, that's what happened. I saw a few tiny flakes mixed in with some steady light rain around 2am, but other than that, nothing. I was a little surprised so many were going a little crazy about this event, but I understand when you even say the "s" word in the Deep South, people are going to get a little crazy. If this would have been the end of January, different story, but we were still too warm (ground temps way too warm).

I had a feeling the models were overdoing the cold air, as it turned out our WBZ heights hovered around 1,200-1,500 feet. Here is what I said on facebook/twitter... The point about forecast soundings vs. forecast thickness values is really important! Don't get suckered in by the 540 line or the 850mb 0 degree line. You really need to analyze a forecast sounding in detail to even be fairly accurate with winter weather forecasting (model trends/pattern recognition big as well). I'll write a blog post soon on this, as thickness values are almost worthless!

" WBZ heights near a 1,000 feet Tuesday morning "may" lead to a few hours of wet snow. NO accumulations for Starkville! Models are a little cold IMO, and lack of dynamic cooling is an issue. Only a couple hundredths an hour during that time frame. FYI... Always use forecast soundings over forecast thickness values when forecasting winter weather, unless you want to get burned! Thickness values are just an average, not going to account for important details like melting layers, WBZ heights, snow growth region, etc... #Bufkit "

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