Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Alberto has developed off the South Carolina coast.  While the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1st, Alberto really has no bearing on the upcoming season, as these small low pressure centers are fairly common this time of year.  Getting one to become purely warm cored is not very common, but you see hybrids all the time.  You'll get development off stalled/slowly moving fronts in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.  One thing is for sure, Alberto has been ventilated by the eastward moving trough this morning/early afternoon...

Tropical Storm Alberto should continue to slowly drift to the southwest and will eventually turn back to the north/northeast over the next 48 hours.  Alberto could strengthen a little, but I don't expect any major intensification, even though I'll be the first to say these tiny storms are tricky.  Keep in mind that Alberto could die almost as fast as it formed.  The smallest thing can have a major effect on a tropical cyclone, especially when it's a tiny storm like Albeto.  It's in a marginal environment when looking at the trifecta:  wind shear, dry air, and SST's.  At worst, expect some gusty winds and heavy rain along the SC/NC coastlines before the next trough "grabs" Alberto and takes him out to sea Tuesday/Wednesday...

From CIMSS:  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120519_suomi_npp_viirs_vis_ir_93L_anim.gif

Time To Get Started...

Today was the official start of the EPAC hurricane season, and we already have Tropical Storm Aletta.  Maximum sustained winds are 45mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb.  Aletta is forecasted to stay weak, but it's still something to look at, as we are entering my favorite time of year weather-wise.  June 1st will be here before you know it...

As many of you already know, I'll be working with hurricanetrack.com again this season.  I'm very excited, as we have many cool projects in store this year.  I'm meeting up with Mark Sudduth on Monday to head out on an informative trip to Houston, TX.  This is where we'll test projects like HURR-B and the NOAA Sentinel, which is essential before the season starts.  I'll updated daily throughout the trip and I'll have more posts as we get closer to Monday.  For Mark's write up on the upcoming trip, check out hurricanetrack.com...

I will be blogging a lot more for both my website and hurricanetrack.com throughout the 2012 hurricane season.  I'm actually in the process of updating hurricanechaser.net from a blog to a full storm chase/forecasting/historical weather website.  It will take some time of course, but it's in the works...

On a quick side note regarding the upcoming 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, I'm going to stay away from a detailed seasonal forecast this year.  We all know seasonal forecasts are typically poor at best, so I'm going to keep things simple.  I'll release a short seasonal write up on June 1st...

I will say looking at what I feel are the best analogs for this upcoming season, I agree with the general consensus of much lower overall numbers this year.  At the same time, these analogs hint at more landfalls, which is not going to be tough to beat.  The United States hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.  Hurricane Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall in the US since Ike in 2008.  Why do I bring this up?  Statistically, we are due regardless of what the analogs say.  Also, years like 1992/1935 should always provide a stark reminder that it's about IMPACT and not the overall numbers.  Hard to believe this season (August 24th) is the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew...

Hurricane Season 2012 Trailer - Jesse Vinturella