Saturday, May 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto




Tropical Storm Alberto has developed off the South Carolina coast.  While the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1st, Alberto really has no bearing on the upcoming season, as these small low pressure centers are fairly common this time of year.  Getting one to become purely warm cored is not very common, but you see hybrids all the time.  You'll get development off stalled/slowly moving fronts in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.  One thing is for sure, Alberto has been ventilated by the eastward moving trough this morning/early afternoon...

Tropical Storm Alberto should continue to slowly drift to the southwest and will eventually turn back to the north/northeast over the next 48 hours.  Alberto could strengthen a little, but I don't expect any major intensification, even though I'll be the first to say these tiny storms are tricky.  Keep in mind that Alberto could die almost as fast as it formed.  The smallest thing can have a major effect on a tropical cyclone, especially when it's a tiny storm like Albeto.  It's in a marginal environment when looking at the trifecta:  wind shear, dry air, and SST's.  At worst, expect some gusty winds and heavy rain along the SC/NC coastlines before the next trough "grabs" Alberto and takes him out to sea Tuesday/Wednesday...




From CIMSS:  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120519_suomi_npp_viirs_vis_ir_93L_anim.gif

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