TS Arlene Makes Landfall!

Yes, I stayed up to watch Tropical Storm Arlene make landfall. I can't help it! My forecast from late Sunday/early Monday worked out well, as Arlene formed, became a strong tropical storm, and moved into Mexico fairly close to Tampico. I would give myself an A- on this one since I was a little off on the landfall point. I'm proud of myself, but trust me, I'll be wrong plenty of times during the year. Tropical forecasting is just way too hard not to make mistakes. That's just weather forecasting in general, so get used to it if you are in this business. The key is to learn from mistakes as you go on, gaining as much experience as possible! If you are hitting 65-70% of your forecasts, then you are an amazing forecaster!

The Feedback Has Begun!

The NHC now has Arlene becoming a strong 70mph tropical storm at landfall. The feedback has begun, and I wouldn't even be shocked at a category-1 hurricane at this point? She is coming together nicely! Expect landfall early tomorrow morning near Tampico, Mexico.

Phase One Complete!

Tropical Storm Arlene has now formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. The maximum sustained winds are 40mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Phase one in my Arlene forecast is now complete, as I still expect a strong tropical storm at landfall. See below for my thoughts from late Sunday night.

The first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has formed, so if you are not prepared, take this as a warning. The time is now to get prepared!

Invest 95L

I like the way 95L is coming together. Feedback will come! Match over gasoline! Here is what I put out late last night concerning the possibility of Arlene forming in the western Gulf of Mexico:

~ 3:00am: "I think we have a very good shot at Arlene forming in the western Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Expect some decent feedback before landfall in Mexico (Tampico to La Pesca). Not great white shark feedback, but more like blue shark feedback. Lol! Wouldn't be shocked at a strong tropical storm."

Still feel the exact same way tonight!

A Blog You Should Check Out!

Here is a great weather blog I recommend everyone checking out. It is written by Justyn Jackson, who I'm proud to call one of my best friends. We went to school together at Mississippi State, and he now works for the NWS service in Amarillo, TX. BY FAR the best severe weather mind I have ever been around. I have learned more about severe weather from Justyn, especially Deep South severe weather setups, than anyone/professor/book as ever taught me. It's honestly not even close! I know myself and many others hated to lose him here at MSU, but I know he'll make it far in the NWS. The SPC would be lucky to have him one day.

Justyn Jackson's Weather Blog

Don't Wait!

The time to be hurricane prepared is now! Don't wait, as it could cost you your life!

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Trailer #1

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Trailer #2

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Trailer #3

Unbelievable Time-Lapse!

I have probably post this before a long time ago, but I was watching it today, and had to post it again. This is an unbelievable time lapse called "rapture", made by Tom Lowe. In my opinion, Tom Lowe is by far the best out there when it comes to time-lapse video/photography. Enjoy!

Tom Lowe (TIMESCAPES) - Rapture