Some early storm surge photos out of NYC

This is why I was SO worried about the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy.  Tomorrow, we'll wake up to a catastrophe!  A benchmark storm we'll tell our kids about!

Also, here is some dramatic video of an explosion at a ConEd Facility in NYC.  Starts at ~ 19 secs...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTjKSgabsw8&feature=youtu.be

"Sandy" Makes Landfall

000
WTNT63 KNHC 300002
TCUAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

SURFACE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY AROUND 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...WITH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H. 

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS OF 11.9 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK...8.4 FEET AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK...AND 8.6 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 73 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK. A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT FARMINGDALE NEW YORK. 

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT. NHC WILL ISSUE ITS LAST ADVISORY ON SANDY AT 1100 PM EDT. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...WILL BEGIN ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES AT 500 AM EDT TUESDAY. HPC PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES...AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

I'll leave you with another image from Atlantic City, NJ.  The surge is going to be the HUGE story with "Sandy".  Catastrophic is a better word honestly...  NYC has set its all time storm surge record (13.9 feet), easily surpassing the old record set during the Hurricane of 1821 (11.2 feet)...  

Storm Surge

Storm Surge has always been the biggest concern of mine with Hurricane Sandy.  Above is a picture from Atlantic City, NJ showing a large section of the boardwalk washed away.  Unfortunately, this will be just one of many pictures from Sandy showing her power.  Again, 940mb!  Historic!

*This Rapid Scan is just incredible...  MUST WATCH!

GOES-14 1-minute Super Rapid Scan visible images (via CIMSS) of Sandy, from sunrise to near landfall today...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor/1080x1920_GOES_B1_RSRSO_SANDY_DAY_animated_2012303_111500_182_2012303_212100_182_X.mov

940mb

Sandy is now down to 940mb!  I'm honestly at a loss for words...  I thought 950mb was the absolute max last Friday.  By Saturday, it became apparent that 950mb was becoming likely.  However, 940mb?  I never saw that coming at all...  

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev%2Flindsey%2Floops%2Fgoes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50

Hurricane Sandy Rapid Scan... Just insane! Truly historic!

Hurricane Sandy is massive! Some Perspective!

For some perspective... MASSIVE wind field with Hurricane Sandy! The surge is going to be a huge problem for New Jersey/New York. I think a large area will see a 10 foot + surge. Scary part, Sandy will probably strengthen some before la

ndfall as it "feeds" off the negative tilt trough while phasing completes tomorrow. Just check out 300mb. A 90 degree 100 + knot diffluent flow! Honestly, just amazing to watch evolve. It's hard to believe what I'm seeing!

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES... 835 KM."

Read this from Bryan Norcross: 

Sandy on Track and Serious Trouble

And so it begins. Mega monster Sandy, with 40+ mph winds 900 miles across and embedded hurricane-force winds is going to hang a left and smash into the Northeast on Monday - a maneuver we've never seen before from system that originated in the tropics. There's no good news from the Hurricane Hunters or the computer forecast models. If anything, the storm is providing more drama in its first act than was expected.

Water is coming over sea walls. Flooding and whipping winds have already started. Just from the fringe of Sandy.

At the coast, by far the worst of this is going to come at high tide at the Jersey Shore and points north. The tide will peak along much of the Northeast coast around 9PM and 9AM, but around noon and midnight on the ocean side of Cape Cod. The difference between low and high tide can be 3 feet and more... a really big deal.

In a normal hurricane you can get lucky... the storm can come in at low tide, and then it's gone by the time high tide comes around. But in this case, the water will be high for a number of tide cycles, so there doesn't seem to be a way to avoid the full impact of the surging, smashing water and waves.

Waves of 10 to 20 feet on TOP of the storm surge and the tide are forecast for the south-facing beaches of Long Island. This will likely be the highest water and the most damage in many decades. On the north shore of Long Island and the south shores of Connecticut and Rhode Island, the water will be exceptionally high as well - likely exceeding Irene, which did major damage. Evacuations have been ordered. And water levels exceeding Irene are expected at many locations along the coast.

For folks staying home, if you're riding out the storm in a house surrounded by trees, stay on the opposite side of the house from the wind on a low floor. Close the curtains to cover windows facing the wind... but still be very careful near any glass that could break.

High rises in the big cities may be a problem. It's especially important that you stay away from the windows. If something flies off a neighboring building, it can smash windows downwind. Besides that, the wind is stronger because you're higher in the air, and the air gets squeezed between the tall buildings. The high wind stresses the glass, and makes it break more violently if something hits it.

It will likely take until Wednesday... or maybe longer than that... before we know what has happened. It's likely that transportation will still be difficult or impossible on Tuesday as the monster wind machine slowly spins down. Even Wednesday and Thursday we'll know that a giant storm is nearby.

That's it. Hunker down, be smart, and stay safe.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.html

Dangerous Situation with Hurricane Sandy!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. 
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE '62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

Hurricane Sandy Links...

Very detailed Blog Post by Jeff Masters on Hurricane Sandy:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277

Great Satellite Loops of Hurricane Sandy:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=jsani

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie/latest_ref.mov

Rapid Scan:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev%2Flindsey%2Floops%2Fgoes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50

Also, this is a really cool wind map.  Enjoy!  http://hint.fm/wind/


PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND:

- The greatest concern to me is obviously the water with Sandy. A MASSIVE storm + a LONG period of onshore winds = big surge over a LARGE area...

Observations on "Sandy"

That's a LOT of dry air.  Sandy is getting her butt kicked right now!

Some statements I have posted on facebook today:

"I'm just noticing that the dry air intrusion is massive right now. I always try to live in the now when it comes to weather and especially forecasting."


"One of my meteorology professors at MSU (Dr. Wax) always had a saying I liked about weather forecasting. "Anything over 3 days is magic." This is not to say you shouldn't attempt long range forecasting (especially if you're using sound reasoning/logic), but be prepared to be humbled a lot. There is still plenty of time to watch Sandy. IMO, we'll know by late Sunday night how bad this storm will be..."


"It's a massive storm, no doubt. Not taking anything away from that. BUT, that's a lot of dry air. I'm just looking at things in the real time:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html"


"To be clear, I'm not saying this won't be a strong if not even a historic storm. I've posted several times about that, being realistic about the situation, staying far away from some of the crazy comparisons I've seen. Keep in mind that 950-960 mb would be an exceptional storm, especially when you consider the huge pressure gradient it will generate. However, I'm going to look at things in the real time as I refuse to "wishcast". Trusting model intensity 3+ days out and quoting it as "fact" is a great way to be humbled quickly. I just prefer to actually see things come together and use the real time observations I have before I already crown this as one of the great US storms in recorded history. Time will tell on that, and we still have plenty of time to just watch, be calm, and see things come together. I promise, if "Sandy" starts to explode, I'll point that out..."


"I agree 100% on real time forecasting. Model or what I like to call parameter forecasting/chasing never works out too well. Of course I look at the models like anyone, but I try my best to be realistic, using the overall pattern to forecast instead of model specifics. Especially, on something like exact pressure 3 to 4 days out. When I kept hearing comparisons to the 1938 "Long Island Express" I had to pick my jaw off the floor. I really don't think people realize how rare and how powerful that storm was. Historic is an understatement for that storm!"


"I figured I better post something, as I find myself glued to this storm! lol That's exactly why I said we'll know by Sunday night. Until then, I'm just looking at what's actually going on. Just look at the latest Euro (12z). It shows a 965mb symmetrical storm at 12z Sat. with the strongest winds on the western/southern side. However, just look at the satellite image, the southern side barely exists (eastern side is messed up bad as well). Even when it initialize at 12z today, that's not at all what "Sandy" looked like. Not even close. It has a long ways to go to even get close to what the Euro has tomorrow at 12z Sat. Could it? Of course, but again, the dry air is kicking Sandy's butt right now."


"One other thing to notice. Look at 96 hours vs. 120 hours on the latest Euro. You see how fast the model weakens the storm? I agree with you that it's already transitioning, but the Euro shows a mostly tropical system with weakening like that at landfall. That's what you see with a hurricane, not a mid-latitude hybrid storm. That alone makes me very skeptical in taking the model guidance as fact..."

1991 "Perfect Storm"

Something to think about... I keep hearing comparisons to the 1991 "Perfect Storm". That's fine, BUT... The "Perfect Storm" stayed about 150 miles offshore. It never made landfall in the US! The lowest recorded pressure reached 972mb. 

However, the pressure gradient was extreme (~70mb) with a strong high parked in eastern Canada. Similar setup here in some ways (yet very different in others), but if "Sandy" comes in (really think it's becoming more and more likely. Thought this way since Monday morning mainly because of a strong -NAO), it will cause a lot more direct impact to the NE US. #IMPACT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJgAwSMuSA8

New England Trouble? I say YES!

While the Euro is overdone, I lean more towards a strong storm affecting the US coast because of blocking. SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

This will help the trough dig in next week and phase with "Sandy". Obviously still a long ways out, but there is legitimate potential here!



UPDATE (10/23/12 - 10PM):

From the first time I saw this coming together, I thought it was very possible if not likely after seeing how negative the NAO was (see post above). It's like a toll booth, backing up trough after trough and really helping with phasing. I never bought the escape out to sea, even though that's still a possibility. 

Ironically, even when the GFS was out to sea, the GFS ensembles really pointed towards phasing and a strong storm. However, keep in mind that the Euro has notoriously way overdone tropical cyclones at higher latitudes. A sub 940mb storm into NYC? In late October? That's just crazy and way overdone. I'm pretty sure the New England Hurricane of 1938 had a 941mb pressure at landfall (lowest I have ever seen at least). I believe the 1991 "Perfect Storm" got down to 972mb. Obviously, the strength and overall effects depend on more than just pressure (huge pressure gradient with the 1991 storm even with the 972mb pressure), but yesterday the Euro had this storm at 928mb just offshore of NYC. Today, still below 940mb? LOL! 

Of course anything is possible I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt that. It will be a strong formable hybrid storm, but this is not the New England Hurricane of 1938 in my personal opinion. Anything in the 950's/960's is exceptional, especially with a strong high not that far away (HUGE pressure gradient). There is still a lot of time to watch everything come together as any option is still on the table. I feel strongly it will affect the US, but things can and usually do change quickly!