Friday, October 26, 2012

Observations on "Sandy"

That's a LOT of dry air.  Sandy is getting her butt kicked right now!

Some statements I have posted on facebook today:

"I'm just noticing that the dry air intrusion is massive right now. I always try to live in the now when it comes to weather and especially forecasting."

"One of my meteorology professors at MSU (Dr. Wax) always had a saying I liked about weather forecasting. "Anything over 3 days is magic." This is not to say you shouldn't attempt long range forecasting (especially if you're using sound reasoning/logic), but be prepared to be humbled a lot. There is still plenty of time to watch Sandy. IMO, we'll know by late Sunday night how bad this storm will be..."

"It's a massive storm, no doubt. Not taking anything away from that. BUT, that's a lot of dry air. I'm just looking at things in the real time:"

"To be clear, I'm not saying this won't be a strong if not even a historic storm. I've posted several times about that, being realistic about the situation, staying far away from some of the crazy comparisons I've seen. Keep in mind that 950-960 mb would be an exceptional storm, especially when you consider the huge pressure gradient it will generate. However, I'm going to look at things in the real time as I refuse to "wishcast". Trusting model intensity 3+ days out and quoting it as "fact" is a great way to be humbled quickly. I just prefer to actually see things come together and use the real time observations I have before I already crown this as one of the great US storms in recorded history. Time will tell on that, and we still have plenty of time to just watch, be calm, and see things come together. I promise, if "Sandy" starts to explode, I'll point that out..."

"I agree 100% on real time forecasting. Model or what I like to call parameter forecasting/chasing never works out too well. Of course I look at the models like anyone, but I try my best to be realistic, using the overall pattern to forecast instead of model specifics. Especially, on something like exact pressure 3 to 4 days out. When I kept hearing comparisons to the 1938 "Long Island Express" I had to pick my jaw off the floor. I really don't think people realize how rare and how powerful that storm was. Historic is an understatement for that storm!"

"I figured I better post something, as I find myself glued to this storm! lol That's exactly why I said we'll know by Sunday night. Until then, I'm just looking at what's actually going on. Just look at the latest Euro (12z). It shows a 965mb symmetrical storm at 12z Sat. with the strongest winds on the western/southern side. However, just look at the satellite image, the southern side barely exists (eastern side is messed up bad as well). Even when it initialize at 12z today, that's not at all what "Sandy" looked like. Not even close. It has a long ways to go to even get close to what the Euro has tomorrow at 12z Sat. Could it? Of course, but again, the dry air is kicking Sandy's butt right now."

"One other thing to notice. Look at 96 hours vs. 120 hours on the latest Euro. You see how fast the model weakens the storm? I agree with you that it's already transitioning, but the Euro shows a mostly tropical system with weakening like that at landfall. That's what you see with a hurricane, not a mid-latitude hybrid storm. That alone makes me very skeptical in taking the model guidance as fact..."

No comments:

Post a Comment