Monday, October 22, 2012

New England Trouble? I say YES!

While the Euro is overdone, I lean more towards a strong storm affecting the US coast because of blocking. SEE:

This will help the trough dig in next week and phase with "Sandy". Obviously still a long ways out, but there is legitimate potential here!

UPDATE (10/23/12 - 10PM):

From the first time I saw this coming together, I thought it was very possible if not likely after seeing how negative the NAO was (see post above). It's like a toll booth, backing up trough after trough and really helping with phasing. I never bought the escape out to sea, even though that's still a possibility. 

Ironically, even when the GFS was out to sea, the GFS ensembles really pointed towards phasing and a strong storm. However, keep in mind that the Euro has notoriously way overdone tropical cyclones at higher latitudes. A sub 940mb storm into NYC? In late October? That's just crazy and way overdone. I'm pretty sure the New England Hurricane of 1938 had a 941mb pressure at landfall (lowest I have ever seen at least). I believe the 1991 "Perfect Storm" got down to 972mb. Obviously, the strength and overall effects depend on more than just pressure (huge pressure gradient with the 1991 storm even with the 972mb pressure), but yesterday the Euro had this storm at 928mb just offshore of NYC. Today, still below 940mb? LOL! 

Of course anything is possible I guess, but I HIGHLY doubt that. It will be a strong formable hybrid storm, but this is not the New England Hurricane of 1938 in my personal opinion. Anything in the 950's/960's is exceptional, especially with a strong high not that far away (HUGE pressure gradient). There is still a lot of time to watch everything come together as any option is still on the table. I feel strongly it will affect the US, but things can and usually do change quickly!

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