Saturday, January 8, 2011

Starkville Snow Update!

My thoughts really haven't changed much, as everything is coming together well... Still feel like a little stronger than forecasted low will form and track along the northern Gulf of Mexico without tracking inland! This will keep Starkville mostly in the snow, even though it could end as a brief period of freezing drizzle as we lose moisture in the snow growth region... I'm sticking with around 6" for us in Starkville, even though I wouldn't be shocked to see some areas approaching 10" in the quote, "sweet spot". At 7pm, GTR is already down to 34 degrees (19 degree dewpoint) with clear skies! The clouds shouldn't get in Starkville until near dawn, so as I stated yesterday, this is great news for snow lovers! To the north, dry air is filtering down, which will only increase evaporational cooling, helping Starkville stay almost all snow throughout the event! It really doesn't get much better than this for snow in the Deep South!

The only question I really have at this point, is how much QPF do we get in Starkville? There is a significant difference between the GFS and the NAM at this point. GFS = Nice Snow... NAM = Historic Snow... I am worried about some convection along/near the Gulf of Mexico cutting off our moisture source, but either way, this is going to be a decent snow for us in Starkville! Amazing omega forecasted in the snow growth region combined with the best overall dynamics near Starkville can potentially lead to a historic snowstorm! I'm going to stick with 6", but again, I really wouldn't be shocked if it was more! Like a lot of things in weather, it will come down to mesoscale processes that NO ONE/NO MODEL can see at this time! Either way, the snow is coming to Starkville! :-)

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