Here are some brief thoughts I have at this time about the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...
Overall Numbers: Lower than last year, around 12-14 named storms...
US Impact: Higher than last year (which is very easy to do, lol), as I think we'll see at least a couple/few (2-3) US landfalling tropical cyclones...
Best Analogs: I really like 1950 & 1955! Second year/ending La Nina, with a cold PDO/warm AMO. Would also probably throw 2008 out there as well... Similar setup with a cold PDO/warm AMO. Don't like it near as much as 1950/1955 though! Really believe La Nina is going to hold on longer than most think (Cold PDO)!
US Regions At Most Risk: I'm thinking the east coast of the US (especially SC/NC) & Florida. If you throw in 2008, that would argue an enhanced threat for the Northern Gulf Coast as well...
Official Thoughts/Ideas: I'm so busy at work right now (building classes), so I probably won't come out with anything in depth until early May. I will eventually put out all my thoughts in a very detailed/in-depth post! Remember, this is just some early thoughts I have right now. Don't take this as an official forecast, as this is just my best guess! Look at last year, I said 17-20 named storms (numbers worked out well), but I was way off like most on impact! Which is really all that matters in my eyes! I will say that I do feel a little better/stronger with the analogs this year...
*IF you throw in 2008:
Ok, there was a Hurricane Love? NE Quad in Orange Beach. Just funny, I took the name Love on Orange Beach in the middle of Hurricane Season.
ReplyDeleteThat is pretty random/funny Jamie! Hope all is well buddy!
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