Saturday, June 4, 2011

94L Taking It's Sweet Time

I was planning on going into great detail with 94L, but honestly there is just not that much to talk about. It's not looking the best on satellite imagery early this afternoon, which is fairly apparent with the visible image above. I still feel 94L has a solid shot at becoming Arlene in the next 3 days or so? Even if it only makes it to a depression (or even just stays an invest), heavy rain is the main threat regardless. This is potentially something that could be a fairly big problem for Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Especially, with 94L basically stationary right now. Expect a very slow drift north over the next few days.

There is about 15-20 knots of shear over 94L, especially over the northern half of 94L. Shear tendencies show a gradual increase, especially again over the northern half of 94L. This puts us at the critical 20 knot threshold line, but since we are only talking about a possible tropical depression or weak tropical storm, that shouldn't hinder it too much. Especially, considering the fact that we have decent moisture around 94L. Around 15-20 knots of shear with a major hurricane, and that would have a much greater impact on the system. Just something to keep in mind.

The models are still all over the place with 94L. Better data should start to come in (recon flying in tomorrow), but until a true center is established and can be locked on by the models, they are going to struggle. Which makes a lot of sense, as the models can on do so much! At this point all we can do is wait/watch for development, looking at real time observations, which is what you should always do with weather forecasting anyways. This is not to say that I don't look at the weather models ( I look at them several times a day), but always take real data over model data when possible! If things start to look interesting, I'll be back with an update...

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