Sunday, June 5, 2011

Very Quick 94L Update

94L is looking better this morning, while it still has a ways to go to reach a depression yet alone Arlene. I expect this very slow improvement to continue as wind shear should slowly start to relax over the next few days, especially as I expect 94L to back away to the NW eventually. Also, the mid-levels should continue to moisten up. The models are still struggling with 94L, but again, until a true/defined center forms that makes sense. As far as I know, recon has cancelled its mission today (rescheduled for Monday), which is not going to help the models out any in the near term. Personally, I'm liking a more NW movement eventually, as 94L is still basically stationary right now. I still think 94L has a solid shot at becoming Arlene, as I expect what is now 94L to start affecting south Florida late next week. Again, this is going to be a very slow process as heavy rain still remains the overwhelming threat for Jamaica, Cuba, & Hispaniola. Potentially, this is a very serious threat/problem for those areas! More updates to come later...

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