Thursday, July 14, 2011

ECMWF Pressure Anomaly Forecast

My friend Todd Ferebee posted this today, and I thought it was pretty darn interesting. The darker the blue, the higher the probability of below average pressures. You can clearly see that the ECMWF (European) is forecasting a huge area of below normal pressure anomalies in the heart of the MDR/Atlantic basin during the main peak of the hurricane season. Of course this is just a forecast, but I personally think things are going to really start picking up fast in about 3 weeks (~ August 4th and beyond). I still feel very strong with my seasonal forecast of lower numbers than last year (~13/14 storms) with much higher impact (which won't be tough to beat). Still really like 1950 & 1955 as the best analog years. This would focus the impact more towards Florida/SE US. I would also throw 2008 in the mix as well (Northern Gulf of Mexico). I really hope everyone is prepared, because it is coming. Please don't wait to the last minute!

*Also, look at the precipitation anomaly forecast as well. Very interesting, which follows the pressure forecast very well. This just gives me more confidence in Euro's forecast!

No comments:

Post a Comment