Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Quick Thoughts on 90L

This is going to be quick, but I feel like 90L will become our 4th named storm of the season, which would be Don. This is a small system, so fluctuations can occur quickly. However, I feel 90L will become a solid (~ 50-60 mph or so) tropical storm before landfall near Brownsville - Corpus Christi, TX on Friday. There is a chance it could become a hurricane, but I'm sticking with a tropical storm until I see something that says otherwise. It will be moving into more favorable upper level wind conditions (Plus, you'll have an upper low backing away into Mexico), so it does need to be watched closely. Hopefully, this will just be good rain maker for south Texas. Many more updates on 90L to come!

*On a side note: Be very careful on relying on models in these situations. There is not even a closed low, and the resolution of the models is simply not good enough to see it. This is especially true with smaller systems like 90L. The key is to understand the pattern, and the model biases, so you can interpret bad model data is a way that can be helpful as a forecaster. That just takes lots of experience!

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