Arkansas Delta Chasing...

Things are coming together IMO for a fairly decent outbreak of tornadoes across southern Missouri into the Arkansas Delta late Friday... I've just analyzed the 0z model data and things are starting to line up... This looks to be a more typical late afternoon/night time event across SE Missouri/NE Arkansas... We are having our banquet tomorrow for winning the national championship in forecasting, but as soon as that's done I'll be heading out with Tim Wallace and Michael Carter... We'll leave around 1pm and our target city right now is Jonesboro, AR... We should be there around 5pm which should get us there in plenty of time to chase... Again this looks to be more of a very late afternoon/overnight setup...

Some of the factors coming together:

* SE surface winds of 15 knots with dewpoints pushing 70 degrees...

* Great turning in the low levels combined with a strong low level jet increasing through the night up to 60 knots...

* 0-1km shear pushing 200 m² / s² + especially as the low level jet increases after dark...

* More than sufficient instability with CAPE values approaching 2,000 J/kg + across the Arkansas Delta...

* Nice deep layer shear with shear vectors nearly perpendicular along the Arkansas Delta... Combine this with a sufficient cap, supercells entering the Arkansas Delta should remain fairly discrete...

* Dryline bulging into southern Missouri/northern Arkansas late Friday afternoon/night...

* Best dynamics north, best thermodynamics south... Liking the combo of that in the Arkansas Delta...

I do think there will be several tornadoes tomorrow so we'll try our best to get on them if they do occur... Saturday is staring to look very interesting as well... If a surface low develops in southern Arkansas like some of the models show, then look out! Again, this is NOT last Saturday's setup (something you see every few years in the south) but there is a legitimate threat for tornadoes as well on Saturday... I'll focus more on that tomorrow as Friday looks to be a decent event... Remember, one day at a time when it comes to storm chasing! I won't be shocked at all if the SPC went moderate 15% hatched tornado tomorrow through southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas... We'll see though?

Before I leave I wanted to put up a couple pictures my good friend Michael Haynes took in Yazoo City the day after the monster EF-4 struck... I think they pretty much speak for itself...

Images courtesy of Michael Haynes, WABG-TV Greenville, MS