Thursday, September 1, 2011

TD 13 & Katia

TD #13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and should become TS Lee soon enough. The story with what should become Lee is going to be heavy rains and flooding. Many of these areas need rain of course, but not over a foot (maybe two?) of rain. That's just bad! I really don't have a problem with the NHC's track, even though please keep in mind this is still a tough forecast. Like the NHC pointed out in their discussion, the center could "move around" or "reform" under deeper convection. Also, what should become Lee will meander around very slowly, as an exact track is tough to say the least. Like always, make sure you focus on the cone, and not on the center line. I expect TD #13 to at least get to a solid/strong tropical storm, but a hurricane is still very possible. However, even if TD #13 does become a hurricane, the overwhelming threat is heavy rain/flooding. That will be the main story with "Lee".

Really quick with Katia. I still expect the trend to continue west, as I think Katia will just miss the US (Well west of Bermuda). I pointed this out on Tuesday (Based mainly on the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection I have learned from Joe Bastardi over the years), so hopefully this will be an example where pattern recognition will almost always beat model guidance, especially when it is 7-10 days out. Also, with Katia weakening a little to a tropical storm, this will only help it even more west in my personal opinion. Again, I still think Katia will miss, but it will be close enough to scare some people along the eastern seaboard. Many more updates to come!

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