Sunday, September 4, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee + Katia

Very quick post here... The onslaught of dry air continues, as Tropical Storm Lee is getting destroyed. You can thank the state of Texas and its horrible drought for this. I mean, we all saw earlier in the season when Texas basically ate Tropical Storm Don! In the end this dry air is a blessing to the northern Gulf Coast. In my opinon, it's keeping TS Lee from becoming an extremely bad flooding event. Of course many places have received a lot of rain already, as Lee will likely lead to flooding, but this dry air is keeping it from becoming as bad as it could be for the northern Gulf Coast. I will add, beware the threat for some tornadoes the next couple of days!

Still no changes with Katia! This is going to be close enough to scare people, as I stated on Tuesday. While a few people thought I was crazy at the time, the trend continues west. I still feel like Katia will just miss, but it's going to be fairly close. A great example of why pattern recognition will almost always beat long range model guidance. Katia needs to be watched closely...

Check out the 0z ECMWF. It shows a powerful hurricane just off the North Carolina coast at 168 hours. I personally think this run is going to be fairly close (probably a tad too far west) to what actually happens, as I would watch Katia very closely. It's not going to take much for the US to get impacted to some extent! Image complements of Dr. Ryan Maue, which has an amazing model page by the way! By far the best I've seen, as I use it all the time...

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