Thursday, September 8, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Update

Tropical Storm Nate is deepening this afternoon. Now a 70mph tropical storm with a central pressure of 995mb. Yesterday, I stated that the arching pattern of the clouds suggested for some fairly quick deepening, but I was also very worried about all the dry air around. In the end, I still feel as long as the dry air doesn't entrain into the core of TS Nate, it will continue to deepen. Should be a hurricane soon enough!

The track is still tough, but I personally still like a more northerly path (The NHC has come north since yesterday). With a deep trough across the eastern US, I just think a track more north/northeast makes the most sense. Of course I'm not saying northern Mexico (And Texas) is in the clear, but if I lived along the northern Gulf Coast, I would watch TS Nate very closely. No comment with potential strength, but I will say, the further east TS Lee stays from Texas/Lee's track, the stronger it should become. Of course the dry air is still a big concern, but it does seem to be slowly moistening up some. There is still a ton of dry air around though! Many more updates to come...

*UPDATE 10PM* Well, tonight's data sure looks a lot more like a Mexico hit. While I really thought a more northerly path made the most sense to me, I may be dead wrong! Not sure what to think anymore... Hmmm?

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